Today’s MLB Betting Trends
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Thursday, May 16, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Top MLB Resources:
(953) PITTSBURGH (19-25) at (954) CHICAGO CUBS (25-19)
Trend: Pittsburgh is 4-17 (19%, -10.91 units) in their last 21 games at Chicago Cubs (the ROI on this trend is -52%)
Trend: Justin Steele is 12-5 (+6.98 units) against teams with 45% or less win percentage
Trend: Road teams that didn’t score well last game (<=2 RF) are a bad bet in the next outing (ROI of -5.6% in last five seasons)
Systems Match: PLAY CHICAGO CUBS (-130 vs PIT)
(955) CINCINNATI (18-25) at (956) LA DODGERS (29-16)
Trend: Tyler Glasnow is 30-5 (+17.75 units) as a favorite of -166 or higher in the last five seasons (including 18-2 (+11.90 units) in home starts)
Trend: Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit (ROI of 1.9% since 2018)
Trend: DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors were pretty sound last year when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group went 117-33 (78%) last season for +20.38 units and an ROI of 13.6%.
Systems Match: PLAY LA DODGERS (-325 vs CIN)
(951) NEW YORK-NL (19-23) at (952) PHILADELPHIA (31-13)
Trend: Taijuan Walker is 19-2 (+15.25 units) as a home favorite of -130 or higher in the last four seasons
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-142 vs NYM)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic MLB betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET, based on Steve Makinen’s betting splits systems. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
>>Read more about Steve Makinen’s MLB betting systems based on the VSiN betting splits.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager last season, this “super” majority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 units and an ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches: NONE YET TODAY
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 units and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is not a loss, and it is definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches: NONE YET TODAY
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors were pretty sound last year when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group went 117-33 (78%) last season for +20.38 units and an ROI of 13.6%. This is a pretty strong rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but I would caution as to getting too deep into this one if it turns the other way.
System Matches: PLAY LA DODGERS (-325 vs CIN)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less. Recognizing that the majority bettors’ preferred option is Over bets, most of these wins came as games surpassed their posted numbers.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in PIT-CHC, PLAY UNDER in CIN-LAD
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There was a unique system that developed last year when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with less wins on the season. This was a terrible scenario for bettors, as they were just 128-137 (48.3%) for -73.71 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.8%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well as well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches: FADE HOUSTON (-205 vs OAK)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%. July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will be tracked in 2024:
– Majority handle bettors in May were just 207-201 (50.7%) for -85.15 units and an ROI of -20.6%
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES, PHILADELPHIA, BOSTON, CHICAGO CUBS, HOUSTON, LA DODGERS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the bets were on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this supermajority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 units and an ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return but considering the major losses in all of the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8% and if it continues in 2024, will at least keep bettors in the game.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY): LA DODGERS RL
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the 2023 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. So far in 2024 through 5/5, they are 263-213 for +0.3 units. For the last three weeks in a row, results have picked up nicely. Considering the average MLB bettor playing every game has lost -32 units, this system is providing a huge advantage even as it is performing a bit below its 2023 standards.
System Matches: NY METS, CHICAGO CUBS, LA DODGERS, NY YANKEES, BOSTON
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are 27-14 for -3.22 units and an ROI of -7.9%. However, the ROI dropped 44% over the past 34 days.
System Matches: FADE HOUSTON (-205 vs OAK)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The ROI on this angle settled at +4.4%. In the early part of the 2024 season thus far, the record of this angle is still negative but improving quickly at 37-18 for -6.26 units.
System Matches: PLAY LA DODGERS (-325 vs CIN)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog. Moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the early part of the 2024 season, these teams have produced a 94-113 record for -5.37 units. This angle also seems to be picking up steam as we get deeper into the season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (+120 at PHI), NY YANKEES (+100 at MIN), BOSTON (-110 vs TB)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 34-42 for +1.19 units after a poor two-week plus stretch of 20-24 for -5.82 units. The three-game teams are 27-27 for +4.99 units. The three-game angle was 13-14 for +1.49 units since 4/22.
System Matches: 3-games – FADE PHILADELPHIA (-142 vs NYM)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.” For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak are 54-44 for -5.87 units through Wednesday, 5/15, after a 30-32, +1.23 units stretch over the last four plus weeks.
System Matches: PLAY NY YANKEES (+100 at MIN), PLAY HOUSTON (-205 vs OAK)
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 49 plays on this angle so far in 2024 through 5/15, and these teams are 30-19 for +5.93 units.
System Matches: PLAY NY METS (+120 at PHI)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road; if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1502-1402 (51.7%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -171.30 units. This represents an ROI of -5.9%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-142 vs NYM)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1374-1788 (43.5%) for -178.56 units and an ROI of -5.6% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (+110 at CHC), CINCINNATI (+250 at LAD), OAKLAND (+170 at HOU)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3026-2653 (53.3%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -405.15 units and a ROI of -7.1%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-142 vs. NYM), CHICAGO CUBS (-130 vs. PIT)
Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with an 852-735 (53.7%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +16.89 units for backers and an ROI of 1.1%.
System Matches (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-120 vs NYY)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 434-369 (54%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +15.28 units, for an ROI of 1.9%.
System Matches (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-325 vs CIN)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 146-123 run (+47.23 units, ROI: 17.6%).
System Matches: PLAY OAKLAND (+170 at HOU)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NY METS +120 (+16 diff), CINCINNATI +260 (+40 diff), NY YANKEES +100 (+15 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: BOSTON -110 (+26 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CIN-LAD OVER 7.5 (+0.8), TB-BOS OVER 8 (+0.8), NYY-MIN OVER 8 (+0.7)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: OAK-HOU UNDER 9 (-0.6)
MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(951) NEW YORK-NL (19-23) at (952) PHILADELPHIA (31-13)
Trend: PHI good at home (16-7, +5.50 units)
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-142 vs NYM)
(953) PITTSBURGH (19-25) at (954) CHICAGO-NL (25-19)
Trend: CHC slightly Under at night (8-15 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7.5)
(955) CINCINNATI (18-25) at (956) LOS ANGELES-NL (29-16)
Trend: LAD pretty good vs. LH starters (12-4, +3.65 units)
System Match: PLAY LA DODGERS (-325 vs CIN)
(957) NEW YORK-AL (29-15) at (958) MINNESOTA (24-18)
Trend: NYY pretty good on the road (16-9, +6.76 units)
System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (+100 at MIN)
(959) TAMPA BAY (22-22) at (960) BOSTON (22-21)
Trend: BOS trending Under at home (6-14 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)
(961) OAKLAND (19-26) at (962) HOUSTON (18-25)
Trend: OAK not as good at night (8-16, -3.65 units)
System Match: FADE OAKLAND (+170 at HOU)
MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.
(951) NEW YORK-NL (19-23) at (952) PHILADELPHIA (31-13)
Trend: Taijuan Walker is 19-2 (+15.25 units) as a home favorite of -130 or higher in the last four seasons
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-142 vs NYM)
(953) PITTSBURGH (19-25) at (954) CHICAGO-NL (25-19)
Trend: Justin Steele is 12-5 (+6.98 units) against teams with 45% or less win percentage
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO CUBS (-130 vs PIT)
(955) CINCINNATI (18-25) at (956) LOS ANGELES-NL (29-16)
Trend: Tyler Glasnow is 30-5 (+17.75 units) as a favorite of -166 or higher in the last five seasons (including 18-2 (+11.90 units) in home starts)
System Match: PLAY LA DODGERS (-325 vs CIN)
(957) NEW YORK-AL (29-15) at (958) MINNESOTA (24-18)
Trend: MIN is 10-4 (+4.74 units) vs. AL East teams with starter Joe Ryan in the last three seasons
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (-120 vs NYY)
Top Head-To-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #1: Oakland at Houston, Mon 5/13-Thu 5/16
Trend: Oakland is 4-19 (17.4%, -10.05 units) in its last 23 games vs. Houston.
– The R.O.I. on this trend is -43.7%.
System Matches: FADE OAKLAND (+170 at HOU)
Series #18: Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs, Thu 5/16-Sun 5/19
Trend: Pittsburgh is 4-17 (19%, -10.91 units) in their last 21 games at Chicago Cubs
– The ROI on this trend is -52%
System Matches: FADE PITTSBURGH (+110 at CHC)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next few tomorrow 5/17)
