Today’s MLB Betting Trends
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Saturday, May 25, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Top MLB Resources:
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager last season, this supermajority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 units and an ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches: PLAY ARIZONA (-180 vs MIA)
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 147-132 run (+38.76 units, ROI: 13.9%).
System Matches: PLAY TEXAS (+110 at MIN), PLAY NY METS (-122 vs SF)
Trend: SEA trending Under vs. NL teams (4-14 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total in SEA-WSH (o/u at 9)
Trend: PIT is 6-18 (-8.75 units) vs. teams with a >58% win percentage with starter Mitch Keller in last five seasons
System Match: FADE PITTSBURGH (+130 vs ATL)
Trend: CIN is 2-15 (-12.20 units) as a large underdog +135 or worse by starter Hunter Greene
System Match: FADE CINCINNATI (+136 vs LAD)
Series #1: Houston at Oakland, Fri 5/24-Sun 5/26
Trend: Oakland is 4-21 (16%, -12.05 units) in its last 25 games vs. Houston.
– The ROI on this trend is -48.2%.
System Matches: FADE OAKLAND (+120 vs HOU)
Series #16: Cleveland at LA Angels, Fri 5/24-Sun 5/26
Trend: Home teams are 17-4 (81%, +12.13 units) in the last 21 games between Cleveland and LA Angels
– The ROI on this trend is 57.8%
System Matches: PLAY LA ANGELS (+110 vs CLE)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 9:00 a.m. ET, based on Steve Makinen’s betting splits systems. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
>>Read more about Steve Makinen’s MLB betting systems based on the VSiN betting splits.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB moneyline wager last season, this supermajority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 units and an ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches: PLAY ARIZONA (-180 vs MIA)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 units and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is not a loss, and it is definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY BOTH): SAN FRANCISCO (+102 at NYM), MINNESOTA (-130 vs TEX)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as majority handle bettors were on huge home favorites last season, they were equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group went 59-40 (59.6%) last season for -38.89 units and an ROI of -39.3%. Anyone losing at this rate will drain their bankroll quickly.
System Matches: FADE PHILADELPHIA (-238 at COL)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors were worse overall in interleague games in 2023, going 374-314 (54.4%) for -81.67 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is over a full percentage point worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SEATTLE (-170 at WSH), BOSTON (-148 vs MIL), NY YANKEES (+100 at SD)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less. Recognizing that the majority bettors’ preferred option is Over bets, most of these wins came as games surpassed their posted numbers.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in NYY-SD (o/u at 7.5)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There was a unique system that developed last year when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with less wins on the season. This was a terrible scenario for bettors, as they were just 128-137 (48.3%) for -73.71 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.8%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well as well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches: FADE BOSTON (-148 vs MIL)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority HANDLE bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%. July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will be tracked in 2024:
– Majority handle bettors in May were just 207-201 (50.7%) for -85.15 units and an ROI of -20.6%
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS THIS MONTH
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the BETS was on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this “super” majority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 units and an ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return but considering the major losses in all of the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8% and if it continues in 2024, will at least keep bettors in the game.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY): PHILADELPHIA RL
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the 2023 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. So far in 2024 thru Sunday 5/20, they are 352-293 for -8.65 units. This is below usual standards and I expect things to improve.
System Matches: ATLANTA, ST LOUIS, LA DODGERS, PHILADELPHIA, ARIZONA, MINNESOTA, BALTIMORE, HOUSTON, TAMPA BAY, CLEVELAND, WASHINGTON, MILWAUKEE, NY YANKEES
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The ROI on this angle settled at +4.4%. In the early part of the 2024 season thus far, the record of this angle is still negative but improving quickly at 42-18 for -2.37 units.
System Matches: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-238 at COL)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the early part of the 2024 season, these teams produced a 120-137 record for +1.05 units (ROI 0.4%). This angle has settled in relatively but has been better in the past seasons.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON (+142 vs SEA), MILWAUKEE (+124 at BOS), NY YANKEES (+100 at SD)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 48-60 for -0.65 units. The three-game teams are 33-32 for +6.00 units. Both of these angles are on profitable two weeks, and I will continue to watch them closely to validate their usefulness.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE MIAMI (+150 at AZ)
3+ games –FADE KANSAS CITY (+100 at TB)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.” For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak are 68-49 for +2.05 units through Friday 5/24.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ST LOUIS (-115 vs. CHC), MINNESOTA (-130 vs. TEX), CLEVELAND (-130 at LAA), NY YANKEES (+100 at SD)
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 71 plays on this angle so far in 2024 through 5/24 and these teams are 38-33 for -0.41 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA DODGERS (-162 at CIN), TAMPA BAY (-120 vs KC)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.
Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 330-307 (51.8%) for +35.00 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 5.5%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (-120 vs. KC), SAN DIEGO (-120 vs. NYY)
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road; if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1518-1414 (51.8%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -168.88 units. This represents an ROI of -5.8%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (+130 vs. ATL), CINCINNATI (+136 vs. LAD), CLEVELAND (-130 at LAA)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1387-1811 (43.4%) for -187.31 units and an ROI of -5.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS, TORONTO, SEATTLE, TEXAS, PHILADELPHIA
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3054-2674 (53.3%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -405.85 units and an ROI of -7.1%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ST LOUIS, PITTSBURGH, DETROIT, WASHINGTON, NY METS, CINCINNATI
Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with an 859-745 (53.6%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +11.85 units for backers and an ROI of 0.7%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (-120 vs. KC), ARIZONA (-180 vs. MIA), SAN DIEGO (-120 vs. NYY)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 437-372 (54%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +12.83 units, for an ROI of 1.6%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ARIZONA (-180 vs. MIA), SAN DIEGO (-120 vs. NYY)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are playing on the road in a competitive line scenario (+130 to -300) have been successful in snapping their skids, 81-66 outright (+6.60 units, ROI: 4.5%).
System Matches: PLAY TEXAS (+110 at MIN)
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 147-132 run (+38.76 units, ROI: 13.9%).
System Matches: PLAY TEXAS (+110 at MIN), PLAY NY METS (-122 vs. SF)
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 116-114 (+19.42 units, ROI: 8.4%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: PLAY TAMPA BAY (-120 vs. KC), PLAY TEXAS (+110 at MIN), PLAY NY METS (-122 vs SF)
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 163-106 in their last 269 tries (+23.85 units, ROI: 8.9%).
System Matches: PLAY KANSAS CITY (+100 at TB), PLAY CLEVELAND (-130 at LAA)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CHICAGO CUBS -105 (+20 diff), COLORADO (+28 diff), NY YANKEES +100 (+17 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ARIZONA -180 (+18 diff), MINNESOTA -130 (+30 diff), CLEVELAND -130 (+30 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NYY-SD OVER 7.5 (+0.8), PHI-COL OVER 10.5 (+0.6), TEX-MIN OVER 8.5 (+0.6), CLE-LAA OVER 8 (+0.6), SF-NYM OVER 7.5 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SEA-WSH UNDER 9 (-1.0), ATL-PIT UNDER 8.5 (-0.8), TOR-DET UNDER 8.5 (-0.5)
MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(901) SAN FRANCISCO (26-26) at (902) NEW YORK-NL (21-29)
Trend: SF not great on the road (11-16, -5.60 units)
System Match: FADE SAN FRANCISCO (+100 at NYM)
(903) ATLANTA (29-19) at (904) PITTSBURGH (24-28)
Trend: ATL trending Under on the road (7-14 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)
(905) CHICAGO-NL (27-24) at (906) ST LOUIS (23-26)
Trend: CHC better vs. RH starters (23-18, +6.26 units)
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO CUBS (-105 at STL)
(907) LOS ANGELES-NL (33-20) at (908) CINCINNATI (21-30)
Trend: LAD pretty good vs. NL Central/East (18-9 record)
System Match: PLAY LA DODGERS (-162 at CIN)
(909) PHILADELPHIA (37-15) at (910) COLORADO (17-33)
Trend: COL awful vs. NL East/Central (2-11, -6.42 units)
System Match: FADE COLORADO (+195 vs PHI)
(913) TORONTO (23-27) at (914) DETROIT (24-27)
Trend: TOR trending Under vs. AL Central/West (6-14 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)
(917) BALTIMORE (31-18) at (918) CHICAGO-AL (15-37)
Trend: CWS bad during the day (5-16, -9.52 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+150 vs BAL)
(919) HOUSTON (23-28) at (920) OAKLAND (21-32)
Trend: OAK decent bet during the day (12-11, +4.12 units)
System Match: PLAY OAKLAND (+120 vs HOU)
(921) KANSAS CITY (33-19) at (922) TAMPA BAY (25-27)
Trend: KC good bet vs. RH starters (26-15, +10.95 units)
System Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY (+100 at TB)
(923) CLEVELAND (34-17) at (924) LOS ANGELES-AL (20-31)
Trend: LAA awful vs. RH starters (13-28, -12.90 units)
System Match: FADE LA ANGELS (+110 vs CLE)
(925) SEATTLE (27-25) at (926) WASHINGTON (22-27)
Trend: SEA trending Under vs. NL teams (4-14 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 9)
(927) MILWAUKEE (29-21) at (928) BOSTON (26-25)
Trend: MIL trending Over vs. AL teams (14-6 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 9)
(929) NEW YORK-AL (36-17) at (930) SAN DIEGO (27-27)
Trend: NYY good vs. RH starters (30-11, +17.02 units)
System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (+100 at SD)
MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.
(901) SAN FRANCISCO (26-26) at (902) NEW YORK-NL (21-29)
Trend: Luis Severino is 12-7 (+3.57 units) in April/May in the last 2+ years
System Match: PLAY NY METS (-120 vs SF)
(903) ATLANTA (29-19) at (904) PITTSBURGH (24-28)
Trend: PIT is 8-16 (-7.08 units) vs. NL East teams with starter Mitch Keller in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE PITTSBURGH (+130 vs ATL)
Trend: PIT is 6-18 (-8.75 units) vs. teams with a >58% win percentage with starter Mitch Keller in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE PITTSBURGH (+130 vs ATL)
(907) LOS ANGELES-NL (33-20) at (908) CINCINNATI (21-30)
Trend: CIN is 2-15 (-12.20 units) as a large underdog +135 or worse by starter Hunter Greene
System Match: FADE CINCINNATI (+136 vs LAD)
(909) PHILADELPHIA (37-15) at (910) COLORADO (17-33)
Trend: PHI is 4-7 (-9.80 units) as heavy road favorite (-180 or higher) with starter Aaron Nola in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA (-238 at COL)
(919) HOUSTON (23-28) at (920) OAKLAND (21-32)
Trend: 6-16 (-6.70 units) in day game starts by JP Sears in the last two years
System Match: FADE OAKLAND (+120 vs HOU)
(921) KANSAS CITY (33-19) at (922) TAMPA BAY (25-27)
Trend: Aaron Civale is 18-6 (+6.00 units) in home night games as a favorite in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY TAMPA BAY (-120 vs KC)
(923) CLEVELAND (34-17) at (924) LOS ANGELES-AL (20-31)
Trend: CLE was 9-2 (+7.15 units) in the -135 to +110 line range by starter Tanner Bibee last year (4-0, +4.00 units this year)
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (-130 at LAA)
(927) MILWAUKEE (29-21) at (928) BOSTON (26-25)
Trend: Colin Rea is good in the -120 to +135 line range (12-2 record, +11.10 units last season) (4-1, +3.54 units this season)
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (+124 at BOS)
Top Head-To-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #1: Houston at Oakland, Fri 5/24-Sun 5/26
Trend: Oakland is 4-21 (16%, -12.05 units) in its last 25 games vs. Houston.
– The ROI on this trend is -48.2%.
System Matches: FADE OAKLAND (+120 vs HOU)
Series #9: Atlanta at Pittsburgh, Fri 5/24-Sun 5/26
Trend: Pittsburgh is 4-12 (25%, -4.36 units) in the last 16 games vs. Atlanta
– The ROI on this trend is -27.3%
System Match: FADE PITTSBURGH (+130 vs ATL)
Series #16: Cleveland at LA Angels, Fri 5/24-Sun 5/26
Trend: Home teams are 17-4 (81%, +12.13 units) in the last 21 games between Cleveland and LA Angels
– The ROI on this trend is 57.8%
System Matches: PLAY LA ANGELS (+110 vs CLE)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one 5/31)
