Today’s MLB Betting Trends
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Monday, May 27, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Top MLB Resources:
Trend: Chris Bassitt is an absurd 24-2 (+20.85 units) as a road favorite of -133 or higher in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY TORONTO (-198 at CWS)
Trend: MIA is 8-28 (-17.86 units) as an underdog within line range -109 to +154 with Trevor Rogers since 2020
System Match: FADE MIAMI (+154 at SD)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in: MIA-SD, HOU-SEA
PLAY UNDER in: KC-MIN
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 149-134 run (+38.70 units, ROI: 13.7%).
System Matches: PLAY LA DODGERS (-155 at NYM), PLAY CHICAGO CUBS (+102 at MIL)
Winning Streak Betting System #2:
Strangely, teams on winning streaks of five games or more and winning fewer than 50% of their games on the season have been the better investment than winning teams as they are 52-43 (+13.38 units, ROI: 14.1%) in their last 95 tries to extend streaks.
System Matches: PLAY ST LOUIS (+114 at CIN)
Winning Streak Betting System #7:
Teams on winning streaks of 9+ games and favored by -145 or less (or underdog) have gone 30-14 (+17.61 units, ROI: 40%) in trying to stretch the streak another game.
System Matches: PLAY CLEVELAND (-120 at COL)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET, based on Steve Makinen’s betting splits systems. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
>>Read more about Steve Makinen’s MLB betting systems based on the VSiN betting splits.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager last season, this supermajority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 units and an ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches: PLAY ATLANTA (-205 vs WSH), PLAY SAN DIEGO (-185 vs MIA)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 units and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is not a loss, and it is definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY): KANSAS CITY (+136 at MIN)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as majority handle bettors were on huge home favorites last season, they were equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group went 59-40 (59.6%) last season for -38.89 units and an ROI of -39.3%. Anyone losing at this rate will drain their bankroll quickly.
System Matches: NONE YET TODAY (WATCH TORONTO)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors were worse overall in interleague games in 2023, going 374-314 (54.4%) for -81.67 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is over a full percentage point worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE): CLEVELAND (-120 at COL)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less. Recognizing that the majority bettors’ preferred option is Over bets, most of these wins came as games surpassed their posted numbers.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in: MIA-SD, HOU-SEA
PLAY UNDER in: KC-MIN
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There was a unique system that developed last year when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with less wins on the season. This was a terrible scenario for bettors, as they were just 128-137 (48.3%) for -73.71 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.8%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well as well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches: FADE CINCINNATI (-135 vs STL)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up & down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%. July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will be tracked in 2024:
– Majority handle bettors in May were just 207-201 (50.7%) for -85.15 units and an ROI of -20.6%
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS THIS MONTH
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the bets was on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this “super” majority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 units and an ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return but considering the major losses in all of the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8% and if it continues in 2024, will at least keep bettors in the game.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY): ATLANTA RL
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the ’23 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. So far in 2024 thru Sunday 5/20, they are 352-293 for -8.65 units. This is below usual standards and I expect things to improve.
System Matches: CINCINNATI, LA DODGERS, MILWAUKEE, PHILADELPHIA, SAN DIEGO, BOSTON, MINNESOTA, HOUSTON, CLEVELAND, CHICAGO WHITE SOX
- In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are again fading fast, 34-22 for -13.33 units and an ROI of -23.8%. The ROI on this system has dropped 61% over the past 49 days.
System Matches: FADE ATLANTA (-205 vs WSH)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the early part of the 2024 season, these teams have produced a 125-140 record, for +3.66 units (ROI 1.4%). This angle has settled in relatively but has been better in the past seasons.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-108 at SF), BOSTON (+136 at BAL), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+164 vs TOR)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 49-62 for -0.95 units. The three-game teams are 35-33 for +7.24 units. Both of these angles are on profitable two weeks and I will continue to watch them closely to validate their usefulness.
System Matches: 3+ games –FADE BALTIMORE (-162 vs BOS), FADE ST LOUIS (+114 at CIN)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.” For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak are 75-51 for +6.05 units through Sunday 5/26.
System Matches (PLAY BOTH): CLEVELAND (-120 at COL), CINCINNATI (-135 vs STL)
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 76 plays on this angle so far in 2024 through 5/26 and these teams are 39-37 for -5.52 units.
System Matches (PLAY BOTH): LA DODGERS (-155 at NYM), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+164 vs TOR)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road; if they scored 9 runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1521-1414 (51.8%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -165.28 units. This represents an ROI of -5.6%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO (-198 at CWS), SEATTLE (+110 vs HOU)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored 2 runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1392-1817 (43.4%) for -190.30 units and an ROI of -5.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA DODGERS (-148 at NYM), BOSTON (+136 at BAL), KANSAS CITY (+140 at MIN), PHILADELPHIA (-108 at SF)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3060-2676 (53.3%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -402.07 units and an ROI of -7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SEATTLE (+110 vs HOU), SAN DIEGO (-185 vs MIA), COLORADO (+100 vs CLE)
Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with an 862-747 (53.6%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +12.64 units for backers and an ROI of 0.8%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+164 vs TOR), MINNESOTA (-166 vs KC)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are playing on the road in a competitive line scenario (+130 to -300) have been successful in snapping their skids, 82-68 outright (+4.55 units, ROI: 3%).
System Matches: PLAY LA DODGERS (-155 at NYM), PLAY CHICAGO CUBS (+102 at MIL)
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 149-134 run (+38.70 units, ROI: 13.7%).
System Matches: PLAY LA DODGERS (-155 at NYM), PLAY CHICAGO CUBS (+102 at MIL)
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 119-119 (+16.21 units, ROI: 6.8%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: PLAY LA DODGERS (-155 at NYM), PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+164 vs TOR)
Winning Streak Betting System #2:
Strangely, teams on winning streaks of five games or more and winning fewer than 50% of their games on the season have been the better investment than winning teams as they are 52-43 (+13.38 units, ROI: 14.1%) in their last 95 tries to extend streaks.
System Matches: PLAY ST LOUIS (+114 at CIN)
Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 126-90 (+23.03 units, ROI: 10.7%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: PLAY ST LOUIS (+114 at CIN)
Winning Streak Betting System #7:
Not surprisingly, when teams get to the level of having won 9 games in a row or more, the lowest priced teams riding winning streaks offer the most value. In fact, teams on winning streaks on 9+ games and favored by -145 or less (or underdog) have gone 30-14 (+17.61 units, ROI: 40%) in trying to stretch the streak another game.
System Matches: PLAY CLEVELAND (-120 at COL)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: BOSTON +136 (+22 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SAN FRANCISCO -112 (+21 diff), TORONTO -198 (+18 diff), CLEVELAND -120 (+23 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LAD-NYM OVER 8.5 (+0.7), CHC-MIL OVER 8 (+0.8), PHI-SF OVER 8 (+1.1), MIA-SD OVER 7.5 (+0.5), KC-MIN OVER 7.5 (+1.7), HOU-SEA OVER 7.5 (+0.6)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: STL-CIN UNDER 9.5 (-0.8), WSH-ATL UNDER 9 (-0.7), TOR-CWS UNDER 9 (-1.4), CLE-COL UNDER 11 (-0.8)
MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(901) ST LOUIS (25-26) at (902) CINCINNATI (23-30)
Trend: STL not great during the day (7-14, -10.09 units)
System Match: FADE ST LOUIS (+114 at CIN)
(903) LOS ANGELES-NL (33-22) at (904) NEW YORK-NL (22-30)
Trend: NYM more under at HOME (10-17 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)
(905) WASHINGTON (23-28) at (906) ATLANTA (30-20)
Trend: ATL pretty good record vs. LH starters (11-5, +2.77 units)
System Match: PLAY ATLANTA (-205 vs WSH)
(907) CHICAGO-NL (27-26) at (908) MILWAUKEE (30-22)
Trend: MIL good during the day (14-9, +5.39 units)
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (-122 vs CHC)
(909) PHILADELPHIA (38-16) at (910) SAN FRANCISCO (27-27)
Trend: SF good during the DAY (15-8, +7.02 units)
System Match: PLAY SAN FRANCISCO (-112 vs PHI)
(911) MIAMI (19-35) at (912) SAN DIEGO (28-28)
Trend: MIA slight Over vs. RH starters (21-13 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 7.5)
(913) BOSTON (27-26) at (914) BALTIMORE (33-18)
Trend: BOS not as good vs. LH starters (6-9, -5.38 units)
System Match: FADE BOSTON (+136 at BAL)
(915) TORONTO (23-29) at (916) CHICAGO-AL (15-39)
Trend: TOR trending UNDER vs. AL Central/West (7-15 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 9)
(917) KANSAS CITY (34-20) at (918) MINNESOTA (28-24)
Trend: KC good vs. RH starters (27-16, +10.95 units)
System Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY (+140 at MIN)
(919) HOUSTON (24-29) at (920) SEATTLE (28-26)
Trend: SEA solid at NIGHT (21-15, +4.39 units)
System Match: PLAY SEATTLE (+110 vs HOU)
(921) CLEVELAND (36-17) at (922) COLORADO (18-34)
Trend: CLE good vs. LH starters (10-2, +8.05 units)
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (-120 at COL)
MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.
(901) ST LOUIS (25-26) at (902) CINCINNATI (23-30)
Trend: CIN is 13-7 (+6.56 units) at home with Nick Lodolo
System Match: PLAY CINCINNATI (-135 vs STL)
(911) MIAMI (19-35) at (912) SAN DIEGO (28-28)
Trend: MIA is 10-24 (-10.89 units) on the road with starter Trevor Rogers since 2020
System Match: FADE MIAMI (+154 at SD)
Trend: MIA is 8-28 (-17.86 units) as an underdog within line range -109 to +154 with Trevor Rogers since 2020
System Match: FADE MIAMI (+154 at SD)
(915) TORONTO (23-29) at (916) CHICAGO-AL (15-39)
Trend: Chris Bassitt is 16-6 (+6.87 units) vs. AL Central opponents in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY TORONTO (-198 at CWS)
Trend: Chris Bassitt is an absurd 24-2 (+20.85 units) as a ROAD favorite of -133 or higher in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY TORONTO (-198 at CWS)
Trend: Chris Bassitt is 23-6 (+13.92 units) in day games vs teams with a losing record in L5 seasons
System Match: PLAY TORONTO (-198 at CWS)
(921) CLEVELAND (36-17) at (922) COLORADO (18-34)
Trend: COL was 7-4 (+5.35 units) during the day last season with starter Austin Gomber (2-2, +1.35 units this season)
System Match: CONSIDER PLAYING COLORADO (+100 vs. CLE)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one 5/31)
