Today’s MLB Betting Trends
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Wednesday, May 29, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Top MLB Resources:
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 4+ seasons, going 282-136 (67.5%) for +45.19 units and an ROI of 10.8%!
System Matches (PLAY): DETROIT GAME 1 (-155 vs PIT)
Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on seven-game losing skids have gone 15-15 (+10.07 units, ROI: 33.6%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 59-120 (-45.78 units, ROI: -25.6%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+145 vs TOR)
Trend: CLE good vs. LH starters (10-2, +8.05 units)
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (-155 at COL)
Trend: HOU is 13-1 (+10.85 units) vs. Seattle with starter Justin Verlander in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY HOUSTON (-108 at SEA)
Trend: MIA is 2-8 (-4.15 units) as a large underdog (+150 or more) with starter Braxton Garrett in the last four seasons
System Match: FADE MIAMI (+150 at SD)
Trend: SD is 15-6 (+3.40 units) as a home favorite within line range of -180 to -240 with starter Yu Darvish in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY SAN DIEGO (-180 vs MIA)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic MLB betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET, based on Steve Makinen’s betting splits systems. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
>>Read more about Steve Makinen’s MLB betting systems based on the VSiN betting splits.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager last season, this supermajority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 units and an ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches: PLAY SAN DIEGO (-180 vs MIA)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 units and a ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is not a loss, and it is definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches: NONE YET TODAY
DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as majority handle bettors were on huge home favorites last season, they were equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group went 59-40 (59.6%) last season for -38.89 units and an ROI of -39.3%. Anyone losing at this rate will drain their bankroll quickly.
System Matches: NONE YET TODAY (WATCH NYY)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors were worse overall in interleague games in 2023, going 374-314 (54.4%) for -81.67 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is over a full percentage point worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT GAME 1 (-155 vs PIT), PITTSBURGH GAME 2 (-142 at DET), TEXAS (-135 vs AZ), CLEVELAND (-155 at COL)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in: PIT-DET GAME 1, PIT-DET GAME 2, HOU-SEA
PLAY UNDER in: MIA-SD, BOS-BAL, CHC-MIL, KC-MIN
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There was a unique system that developed last year when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with less wins on the season. This was a terrible scenario for bettors, as they were just 128-137 (48.3%) for -73.71 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.8%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well as well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches: FADE CINCINNATI (-122 vs STL)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%. July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will be tracked in 2024:
– Majority handle bettors in May were just 207-201 (50.7%) for -85.15 units and an ROI of -20.6%
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS THIS MONTH
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the bets were on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this supermajority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 units and an ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return but considering the major losses in all of the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8% and if it continues in 2024, will at least keep bettors in the game.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY BOTH): TORONTO RL (at CWS), NYY RL (at LAA)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the 2023 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. So far in 2024, they are 400-329 for -4.34 units. This is below usual standards and I expect things to improve.
System Matches: CINCINNATI, PHILADELPHIA, SAN DIEGO, LA DODGERS, ATLANTA, MILWAUKEE, BOSTON, OAKLAND, TORONTO, MINNESOTA, NY YANKEES, HOUSTON, ARIZONA, CLEVELAND, DETROIT GAME 1 AND GAME 2
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The ROI on this angle settled at +4.4%. In the early part of the 2024 season thus far, the record of this angle is still slightly negative but improving quickly at 48-20 for -0.02 units.
System Matches: PLAY NY YANKEES (-192 at LAA)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the early part of the 2024 season, these teams have produced a 131-148 record, for +3.77 units (ROI 1.4%). This angle has settled in lately.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (+114 vs. CHC), BOSTON (+160 at BAL), OAKLAND (+154 at TB), HOUSTON (-108 at SEA), ARIZONA (+114 at TEX), DETROIT GAME 2 (+120 vs. PIT)
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 116-112 record, for +15.54 units (ROI 6.8%). This is an angle I will be watching more closely going forward.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (+114 vs. CHC), HOUSTON (-108 at SEA), ARIZONA (+114 at TEX), DETROIT GAME 2 (+120 vs. PIT)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, a ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 71-73 for +3.39 units. The three-game teams are 37-36 for +4.55 units. Both of these angles are unusually profitable and I will continue to watch them closely to validate their usefulness.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE SAN FRANCISCO (+105 vs. PHI), FADE TEXAS (-135 vs. AZ)
3+ games – FADE SEATTLE (-112 vs. HOU)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.” For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak are 77-64 for +4.85 units (3.4% ROI) through Tuesday 5/28.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN DIEGO (-180 vs. MIA), DETROIT GAME 1 (-155 vs. PIT)
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 78 plays on this angle so far in 2024 through 5/28, and these teams are 40-38 for -4.24 units.
System Matches: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-125 at SF)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road; if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1523-1415 (51.8%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -164.98 units. This represents an ROI of -5.6%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT GAME 1 (-155 vs. PIT), CLEVELAND (-155 at COL)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1396-1824 (43.4%) for -193.16 units and an ROI of -6% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH GAME 1, WASHINGTON, KANSAS CITY, ARIZONA, MIAMI, HOUSTON, PHILADELPHIA
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3066-2680 (53.4%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -401.69 units and an ROI of -7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT GAME 1 (-155 vs. PIT), COLORADO (+130 vs. CLE)
Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with an 863-749 (53.5%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +11.64 units for backers and an ROI of 0.7%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (-185 vs. OAK), NY METS (+110 vs. LAD), CINCINNATI (-122 vs. STL), MILWAUKEE (+114 vs. CHC), SAN FRANCISCO (+105 vs. PHI)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 438-373 (54%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +12.58 units, for a ROI of 1.6%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (-185 vs. OAK), NY METS (+110 vs. LAD), MILWAUKEE (+114 vs. CHC), SAN FRANCISCO (+105 vs PHI)
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 4+ seasons, going 282-136 (67.5%) for +45.19 units and an ROI of 10.8%!
System Matches (PLAY): DETROIT GAME 1 (-155 vs PIT)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #2:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and winning fewer than 43% of their games on the season are on a 48-95 skid (-22.69 units, ROI: -15.9%).
System Matches: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+145 vs. TOR)
Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 15-15 (+10.07 units, ROI: 33.6%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 59-120 (-45.78 units, ROI: -25.6%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+145 vs TOR)
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 120-121 (+15.21 units, ROI: 6.3%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+145 vs TOR)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: BOSTON +160 (+20 diff), HOUSTON -108 (+25 diff), DETROIT GAME 2 +120 (+20 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CINCINNATI -122 (+25 diff), LA DODGERS -130 (+40 diff), NY YANKEES -192 (+18 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PHI-SF OVER 8 (+1.2), KC-MIN OVER 7.5 (+1.1), LAD-NYM OVER 8.5 (+0.6), CHC-MIL OVER 7.5 (+0.6), BOS-BAL OVER 7.5 (+0.5)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: OAK-TB UNDER 8 (-0.6)
MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(901) ST LOUIS (26-27) at (902) CINCINNATI (24-31)
Trend: STL not good during the day (7-15, -11.09 units)
System Match: FADE ST LOUIS (+102 at CIN)
(903) PHILADELPHIA (38-18) at (904) SAN FRANCISCO (29-27)
Trend: SF not as good vs. LH starters (5-9, -5.81 units)
System Match: FADE SAN FRANCISCO (+105 vs PHI)
(905) MIAMI (19-37) at (906) SAN DIEGO (30-28)
Trend: MIA slight Under on the road (9-18 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7)
(907) LOS ANGELES-NL (35-22) at (908) NEW YORK-NL (22-32)
Trend: NYM more Under at home (10-19 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)
(909) WASHINGTON (24-29) at (910) ATLANTA (31-21)
Trend: ATL solid record vs. LH starters (11-6, +0.72 units)
System Match: PLAY ATLANTA (-162 vs WSH)
(911) CHICAGO-NL (28-27) at (912) MILWAUKEE (31-23)
Trend: MIL slight Under vs. LH starters (4-7 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7.5)
(913) BOSTON (28-27) at (914) BALTIMORE (34-19)
Trend: BOS solid bet on road (17-12, +6.96 units)
System Match: PLAY BOSTON (+160 at BAL)
(917) KANSAS CITY (34-22) at (918) MINNESOTA (30-24)
Trend: KC not as good on the road (13-14, -1.46 units)
System Match: FADE KANSAS CITY (+110 at MIN)
(919) TORONTO (25-29) at (920) CHICAGO-AL (15-41)
Trend: TOR trending Under vs. AL Central/West (8-16 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)
(921) NEW YORK-AL (37-19) at (922) LOS ANGELES-AL (21-33)
Trend: NYY good vs. AL Central/West (21-7, +8.73 units)
System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (-192 at LAA)
(923) HOUSTON (24-31) at (924) SEATTLE (30-26)
Trend: SEA solid at night (23-15, +6.49 units)
System Match: PLAY SEATTLE (-112 vs HOU)
(931) PITTSBURGH (25-29) at (932) DETROIT (26-27) (DH Game #1)
Trend: PIT slight Over vs. LH starters (13-7 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 6.5)
(927) ARIZONA (25-29) at (928) TEXAS (26-29)
Trend: AZ trending Under vs. RH starters (11-21 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 9)
(929) CLEVELAND (37-18) at (930) COLORADO (19-35)
Trend: CLE good vs. LH starters (10-2, +8.05 units)
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (-155 at COL)
MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.
(901) ST LOUIS (26-27) at (902) CINCINNATI (24-31)
Trend: Frankie Montas 0-4 (-5.05 units) vs. NL Central (all as favorite as well)
System Match: FADE CINCINNATI (-122 vs STL)
(903) PHILADELPHIA (38-18) at (904) SAN FRANCISCO (29-27)
Trend: PHI is 5-12 (-9.53 units) in line range of -145 or worse with starter Cristopher Sanchez the last 2+ seasons
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA (-125 at SF)
(905) MIAMI (19-37) at (906) SAN DIEGO (30-28)
Trend: MIA is 2-8 (-4.15 units) as a large underdog (+150 or more) with starter Braxton Garrett in the last four seasons
System Match: FADE MIAMI (+150 at SD)
Trend: SD is 15-6 (+3.40 units) as a home favorite within line range of -180 to -240 with starter Yu Darvish in last five seasons
System Match: PLAY SAN DIEGO (-180 vs MIA)
(909) WASHINGTON (24-29) at (910) ATLANTA (31-21)
Trend: MacKenzie Gore is 4-9 (-3.47 units) vs. NL East opponents in his career
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON (+136 at ATL)
(917) KANSAS CITY (34-22) at (918) MINNESOTA (30-24)
Trend: Seth Lugo is 2-9 (-10.35 units) on the road against teams with a winning record since 2020
System Match: FADE KANSAS CITY (+110 at MIN)
Trend: MIN is 4-10 (-7.44 units) between the line range of -105 to -125 with starter Bailey Ober in the last three seasons
System Match: FADE MINNESOTA (*if they fall into this line range, -130 currently*)
(923) HOUSTON (24-31) at (924) SEATTLE (30-26)
Trend: HOU is 13-1 (+10.85 units) vs. Seattle with starter Justin Verlander in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY HOUSTON (-108 at SEA)
Trend: SEA is 9-1 (+7.60 units) as a short home favorite (between -111 and -140) with George Kirby in last two seasons
System Match: PLAY SEATTLE (-112 vs HOU)
(931) PITTSBURGH (25-29) at (932) DETROIT (26-27) (DH Game #1)
Trend: DET is 2-6 (-4.40 units) vs. NL Central teams with starter Tarik Skubal
System Match: FADE DETROIT (-155 vs PIT)
(927) ARIZONA (25-29) at (928) TEXAS (26-29)
Trend: Dane Dunning is 16-5 (+8.75 units) at home as a -120 favorite or higher in career
System Match: PLAY TEXAS (-135 vs AZ)
Trend: Dane Dunning is 10-22 (-14.40 units) in day game starts in career
System Match: FADE TEXAS (-135 vs AZ)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one 5/31)
