The following MLB betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Saturday, May 4, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

 

Top MLB Resources:

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic MLB betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 units and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is not a loss, and it is definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): TEXAS (-115 at KC), TAMPA BAY (-115 vs NYM), ARIZONA (-130 vs SD)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors were worse overall in interleague games in 2023, going 374-314 (54.4%) for -81.67 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is over a full percentage point worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ST LOUIS (-180 vs. CWS), TORONTO (-162 at WSH), OAKLAND (-130 vs. MIA), BALTIMORE (-115 at CIN), NY METS (-105 at TB)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less. Recognizing that the majority bettors’ preferred option is Over bets, most of these wins came as games surpassed their posted numbers.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in: DET-NYY, BOS-MIN, NYM-TB
PLAY UNDER in: COL-PIT, MIA-OAK, SF-PHI, SEA-HOU

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There was a unique system that developed last year when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with less wins on the season. This was a terrible scenario for bettors, as they were just 128-137 (48.3%) for -73.71 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.8%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well as well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches: FADE CHICAGO CUBS (-125 vs MIL)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%.  July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will be tracked in 2024:
– Majority handle bettors in May were just 207-201 (50.7%) for -85.15 units and an ROI of -20.6%
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS THIS MONTH

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the 2023 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. So far, in 2024 through Monday, 4/23, they are 164-139 for -13.92 units. For the second week in a row, results picked up last week, as I believe we are starting to settle in for the 2024 season. Considering the average MLB bettor playing every game has lost -22.9 units, this system is still providing about a 9-unit advantage even as it is performing below its usual expectations.
System Matches: MILWAUKEE, SAN FRANCISCO, SAN DIEGO, LA DODGERS, NY YANKEES, MINNESOTA, CLEVELAND, KANSAS CITY, SEATTLE, ST LOUIS, WASHINGTON, OAKLAND, BALTIMORE, NY METS

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are actually off to a better start, 21-8 for +4.43 units and a ROI of 15.3%. However, the ROI dropped 20% over the past 23 days.
System Matches: FADE PITTSBURGH (-205 vs COL)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog. Moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the early part of the 2024 season, these teams have produced a 71-76 record for +3.72 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (+105 at CHC), SAN FRANCISCO (+154 at PHI), SAN DIEGO (+110 at AZ), KANSAS CITY (-105 vs TEX), SEATTLE (+120 at HOU), WASHINGTON (+136 vs. TOR), NY METS (-105 at TB)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 36-32 for +6.53 units. The three-game teams are 18-23 for -3.91 units. I don’t expect these to continue for long as the foundation of this system is based in the fact that these teams don’t win over the long term.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE HOUSTON (-142 vs SEA)
3-games – FADE PHILADELPHIA (-185 vs SF)

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.” For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak were 37-27 for +1.02 units through Friday, 5/3.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (+105 at CHC), SAN DIEGO (+110 at AZ), MINNESOTA (-180 vs. BOS), KANSAS CITY (-105 vs. TEX), OAKLAND (-130 vs. MIA)

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 39 plays on this angle so far in 2024 and these teams are 22-17 for -0.38 units.
System Matches: PLAY PITTSBURGH (-205 vs. COL)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different NBA betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road; if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1484-1384 (51.7%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -168.47 units. This represents an ROI of -5.9%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+136 vs. TOR), TAMPA BAY (-115 vs. NYM)

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1349-1762 (43.4%) for -182.21 units and an ROI of -5.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT (+140 at NYY), TEXAS (-115 at KC), BOSTON (+154 at MIN), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+150 at STL), MIAMI (+110 at OAK)

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2989-2624 (53.3%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -405.84 units and an ROI of -7.2%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+136 vs. TOR), TAMPA BAY (-115 vs. NYM), KANSAS CITY (-105 vs. TEX), HOUSTON (-142 vs. SEA), MINNESOTA (-185 vs. BOS)

Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with an 848-720 (54.1%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +32.97 units for backers and an ROI of 2.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (-105 vs. BAL), PITTSBURGH (-205 vs. COL), ARIZONA (-130 vs. SD)

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 429-361 (54.3%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +21.16 units, for an ROI of 2.7%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (-142 vs. LAA), PHILADELPHIA (-185 vs. SF)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 140-116 run (+48.76 units, ROI: 19%).
System Matches: PLAY PITTSBURGH (-205 vs. COL), PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+150 at STL)

Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 109-104 (+22.31 units, ROI: 10.5%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: PLAY PITTSBURGH (-205 vs COL)

Winning Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more are on a 169-88 (+13.23 units, ROI: 5.1%) run in the next game when playing as home favorites.
System Matches: PLAY MINNESOTA (-185 vs. BOS), PLAY OAKLAND (-130 vs. MIA)

Winning Streak Betting System #2:
Strangely, teams on winning streaks of five games or more and winning fewer than 50% of their games on the season have been the better investment than winning teams as they are 48-41 (+9.83 units, ROI: 11%) in their last 89 tries to extend streaks.
System Matches: PLAY OAKLAND (-130 vs. MIA)

Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 123-87 (+22.75 units, ROI: 10.8%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: PLAY OAKLAND (-130 vs. MIA)

Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 155-101 in their last 256 tries (+25.37 units, ROI: 9.9%).
System Matches: PLAY MINNESOTA (-185 vs BOS)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SAN FRANCISCO +154 (+19 diff), ATLANTA +154 (+32 diff), BOSTON +150 (+37 diff), SEATTLE +120 (+30 diff),

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CLEVELAND -142 (+17 diff), ST LOUIS -180 (+19 diff), OAKLAND -130 (+22 diff)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SF-PHI OVER 7 (+1.0), SD-AZ OVER 8.5 (+0.9), DET-NYY OVER 7.5 (+0.9), BOS-MIN OVER 7.5 (+0.9), SEA-HOU OVER 7 (+0.7), NYM-TB OVER 7.5 (+0.7), ATL-LAD OVER 8.5 (+0.5)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CWS-STL UNDER 8.5 (-1.3)

MLB Pitcher Situational Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.

(953) COLORADO (8-24) at (954) PITTSBURGH (14-19)
Trend: COL is 2-7 (-5.75 units) vs. NL Central opponents with starter Austin Gomber the last three seasons
System Match: FADE COLORADO (+170 at PIT)

(955) SAN FRANCISCO (15-18) at (956) PHILADELPHIA (22-11)
Trend: PHI is 3-8 (-11.68 units) as a favorite within -170 to -198 line range with starter Ranger Suarez in the last three seasons
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-185 vs SF)

(959) ATLANTA (20-10) at (960) LOS ANGELES-NL (21-13)
Trend: Tyler Glasnow is 30-4 (+19.55 units) as a favorite of -166 or higher in the last five seasons (including 18-2 (+11.90 units) in home starts)
System Match: PLAY LA DODGERS (-185 vs ATL)

(963) BOSTON (18-15) at (964) MINNESOTA (18-13)
Trend: Pablo Lopez is 8-0 (+8.00 units) as a large home favorite of -180 or higher in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (-180 vs BOS)

(965) LOS ANGELES-AL (12-20) at (966) CLEVELAND (20-12)
Trend: LAA is 7-14 (-7.43 units) on the road in the -160 to +130 line range for starter Reid Detmers
System Match: FADE LA ANGELS (+120 at CLE)

(967) TEXAS (17-16) at (968) KANSAS CITY (20-13)
Trend: Dane Dunning is 4-20 (-17.05 units) in road night games as -155 favorite or worse (including underdog) in career
System Match: FADE TEXAS (-115 at KC)

(969) SEATTLE (17-15) at (970) HOUSTON (12-20)
Trend: SEA is 28-12 (+21.05 units) as an underdog with Logan Gilbert in the last three seasons
System Match: PLAY SEATTLE (+120 at HOU)

(971) CHICAGO-AL (6-26) at (972) ST LOUIS (15-17)
Trend: Lance Lynn is 16-7 (+7.30 units) within line range of -180 or worse in home day games in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE ST LOUIS (-180 vs CWS)

(975) MIAMI (9-25) at (976) OAKLAND (16-17)
Trend: MIA is 9-24 (-12.29 units) on the road with starter Trevor Rogers since 2020
System Match: FADE MIAMI (+110 at OAK)

Trend: MIA is 7-27 (-18.26 units) as an underdog within line range -109 to +154 with Trevor Rogers since 2020
System Match: FADE MIAMI (+110 at OAK)

Series #16: LA Angels at Cleveland, Fri 5/3-Sun 5/5
Trend: Home teams are 15-3 (83.3%, +11.21 units) in the last 18 games between Cleveland and LA Angels
–        The ROI on this trend is 62.3%
System Matches: PLAY CLEVELAND (-142 vs LAA)

Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY

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