Today’s MLB Betting Trends
The following are MLB betting trends featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Monday, May 6, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
Top MLB Resources:
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic MLB betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:15 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager last season, this supermajority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 units and an ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches: PHILADELPHIA (-218 vs SF), PITTSBURGH (-166 vs. LAA), TAMPA BAY (-180 vs. CWS), LA DODGERS (-285 vs. MIA)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors were pretty sound last year when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group went 117-33 (78%) last season for +20.38 units and an ROI of 13.6%. This is a pretty strong rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but I would caution as to getting too deep into this one if it turns the other way.
System Matches: PLAY LA DODGERS (-285 vs MIA)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors were worse overall in interleague games in 2023, going 374-314 (54.4%) for -81.67 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is over a full percentage point worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (-166 vs LAA), MILWAUKEE (+120 at KC)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less. Recognizing that the majority bettors’ preferred option is Over bets, most of these wins came as games surpassed their posted numbers.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in: DET-CLE, CWS-TB, SD-CHC, TEX-OAK
PLAY UNDER in: SF-PHI, LAA-PIT
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%. July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will be tracked in 2024:
– Majority handle bettors in May were just 207-201 (50.7%) for -85.15 units and an ROI of -20.6%
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS THIS MONTH
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the bets was on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this supermajority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 units and an ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return but considering the major losses in all of the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8% and if it continues in ’24, will at least keep bettors in the game.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY BOTH): PHILADELPHIA RL, LA DODGERS RL
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the 2023 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. So far in 2024 thru Monday 4/23, they are 164-139 for -13.92 units. For the second week in a row, results picked up last week as I believe we are starting to settle in for the 2024 season. Considering the average MLB bettor playing every game has lost -22.9 units, this system is still providing about a 9-unit advantage even as it is performing below its usual expectations.
System Matches: SAN DIEGO, NY METS, LA DODGERS, CLEVELAND, TAMPA BAY, SEATTLE, OAKLAND, PITTSBURGH, MILWAUKEE
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The ROI on this angle settled at +4.4%. In the early part of the 2024 season thus far, the record of this angle is still negative at 30-17 for -10.84 units after a brutal 0-2, -5.20 units day on last Friday.
System Matches: PLAY LA DODGERS (-285 vs MIA)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog. Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the early part of the 2024 season, these teams have produced a 74-78 record, for +5.12 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN DIEGO (+100 at CHC), NY METS (+102 at STL), OAKLAND (+120 vs. TEX), MILWAUKEE (+120 at KC)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 37-33 for +6.11 units. The three-game teams are 19-23 for -2.91 units. I don’t expect these to continue for long as the foundation of this system is based in the fact that these teams don’t win over the long term.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE CHICAGO CUBS (-120 vs. SD), FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+150 at TB), FADE TEXAS (-142 at OAK)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.” For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak were 43-32 for +0.85 units through Sunday, 5/5.
System Matches: PLAY LA DODGERS (-285 vs MIA), PLAY TAMPA BAY (-180 vs CWS)
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 40 plays on this angle so far in 2024 and these teams are 23-17 for +0.62 units.
System Matches: PLAY NY METS (+102 at STL)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road; if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1488-1387 (51.8%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -167.74 units. This represents an ROI of -5.8%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE): MIAMI (+230 at LAD)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1353-1769 (43.3%) for -184.62 units and a ROI of -5.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT (+102 at CLE), LA ANGELS (+140 at PIT), MILWAUKEE (+120 at KC)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2996-2629 (53.3%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -404.92 units and an ROI of -7.2%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-205 vs SF), PITTSBURGH (-166 vs LAA), TAMPA BAY (-180 vs CWS), CHICAGO CUBS (-120 vs SD), LA DODGERS (-285 vs MIA)
Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with an 849-723 (54%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +30.25 units for backers and an ROI of 1.9%.
System Matches (PLAY): ST LOUIS (-122 vs NYM)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Winning Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more are on a 171-90 (+11.89 units, ROI: 4.6%) run in the next game when playing as home favorites.
System Matches: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-218 vs SF)
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 156-102 in their last 258 tries (+24.45 units, ROI: 9.5%).
System Matches: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-218 vs SF)
Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 65-72 (-34.91 units, ROI: -25.5%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE LA DODGERS (-285 vs MIA)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIAMI +230 (+20 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: DET-CLE OVER 7 (+1.1)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIA-LAD UNDER 8.5 (-0.5)
MLB Team Situational Trend Spots
The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(951) SAN FRANCISCO (15-20) at (952) PHILADELPHIA (24-11)
Trend: PHI is good against RH starters (17-5, +9.38 units)
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-218 vs SF)
(953) SAN DIEGO (18-19) at (954) CHICAGO-NL (21-14)
Trend: CHC has been good at home (12-4, +8.28 units)
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO CUBS (-118 vs SD)
(957) MIAMI (10-26) at (958) LOS ANGELES-NL (23-13)
Trend: LAD trending Over at home (12-6 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8.5)
(961) CHICAGO-AL (8-26) at (962) TAMPA BAY (17-18)
Trend: TB trending Over at home (12-6 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 7.5)
(963) SEATTLE (19-15) at (964) MINNESOTA (19-14)
Trend: SEA trending Under at night (5-17 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)
(967) LOS ANGELES-AL (12-22) at (968) PITTSBURGH (16-19)
Trend: LAA not as good vs RH starters (9-21, -11.01 units)
System Match: FADE LA ANGELS (+140 at PIT)
MLB Pitcher Situational Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.
(951) SAN FRANCISCO (15-20) at (952) PHILADELPHIA (24-11)
Trend: PHI is 18-4 (+11.97 units) in the last 22 day game starts by Zach Wheeler
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-218 vs SF)
(953) SAN DIEGO (18-19) at (954) CHICAGO-NL (21-14)
Trend: SD is 9-17 (-10.82 units) in the -102 to -130 line range in night games with starter Yu Darvish in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE SAN DIEGO (-102 at CHC)
(957) MIAMI (10-26) at (958) LOS ANGELES-NL (23-13)
Trend: Walker Buehler has dominated lesser competition, going 19-2 (+15.10 units) against teams with a < 40% win pct since 2019
System Match: PLAY LA DODGERS (-285 vs MIA)
(965) TEXAS (19-16) at (966) OAKLAND (17-18)
Trend: Andrew Heaney is 20-5 (+12.50 units) on the road for line range of -102 or higher in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY TEXAS (-142 at OAK)
Trend: Andrew Heaney is 2-5 (-3.60 units) vs Oakland in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE TEXAS (-142 at OAK)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one Friday 5/10)
