Today’s MLB Betting Trends
The following MLB betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Thursday, May 9, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
Top MLB Resources:
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic MLB betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:15 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager last season, this supermajority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 units and an ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches: NONE YET TODAY
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 units and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is not a loss, and it is definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY BOTH): MINNESOTA (-125 vs. SEA), MILWAUKEE (+114 vs. STL)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less. Recognizing that the majority bettors’ preferred option is Over bets, most of these wins came as games surpassed their posted numbers.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in SEA-MIN
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There was a unique system that developed last year when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with less wins on the season. This was a terrible scenario for bettors, as they were just 128-137 (48.3%) for -73.71 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.8%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well as well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches: FADE CINCINNATI (-130 vs. AZ)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%. July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will be tracked in 2024:
– Majority handle bettors in MAY were just 207-201 (50.7%) for -85.15 units and an ROI of -20.6%
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI, SEATTLE, SAN FRANCISCO, NY YANKEES, ST LOUIS, CLEVELAND, KANSAS CITY
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the bets were on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this supermajority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 units and an ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return, but considering the major losses in all of the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8% and, if it continues in 2024, will at least keep bettors in the game.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY): CLEVELAND RL
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the 2023 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. So far in 2024 thru 5/5, they are 263-213 for +0.3 units. For the last three weeks in a row, results have picked up nicely. Considering the average MLB bettor playing every game has lost -32 units, this system is providing a huge advantage even as it is performing a bit below its 2023 standards.
System Matches: ARIZONA, SAN FRANCISCO, MILWAUKEE, SEATTLE, NY YANKEES, CLEVELAND, LA ANGELS
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog. Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the early part of the 2024 season, these teams produced an 87-97 record for +3.03 units (ROI 1.6%). This angle also seems to be picking up steam as we get deeper into the season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ARIZONA (+110 at CIN), MILWAUKEE (+114 vs STL), SEATTLE (+105 at MIN), LA ANGELS (+100 vs KC)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system”. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak are 52-36 for +2.94 units (6.3% ROI) through Wednesday, 5/8, after a great 28-24, +9.14 units stretch over the last three-plus weeks.
System Matches: PLAY ARIZONA (+110 at CIN), PLAY NY YANKEES (-135 vs HOU)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road; if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1492-1395 (51.7%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -172.96 units. This represents a ROI of -6%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE): NY YANKEES (-135 vs HOU)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3011-2633 (53.3%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -395.62 units and an ROI of -7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): COLORADO (+136 vs. SF), MINNESOTA (-125 vs. SEA), NY YANKEES (-135 vs. HOU)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 14-15 (+8.77 units, ROI: 30.2%), while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 56-118 (-46.50 units, ROI: -26.7%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE CINCINNATI (-130 vs AZ)
Losing Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are playing on the road in a competitive line scenario (+130 to -300) have been successful in snapping their skids, 75-61 outright (+5.85 units, ROI: 4.3%).
System Matches: PLAY ST LOUIS (-135 at MIL), PLAY HOUSTON (+114 at NYY)
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 143-119 run (+49.08 units, ROI: 18.7%).
System Matches: PLAY CINCINNATI (-130 vs. AZ), PLAY COLORADO (+136 vs. SF), PLAY ST LOUIS (-135 at MIL)
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 110-106 (+21.19 units, ROI: 9.8%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: PLAY CINCINNATI (-130 vs AZ), PLAY HOUSTON (+114 at NYY)
Winning Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more are on a 175-92 (+11.54 units, ROI: 4.3%) run in the next game when playing as home favorites.
System Matches: PLAY NY YANKEES (-135 vs HOU)
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 159-103 in their last 262 tries (+24.80 units, ROI: 9.5%).
System Matches: PLAY NY YANKEES (-135 vs HOU)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: COLORADO +136 (+25 diff), MILWAUKEE (+32 diff), SEATTLE +105 (+16 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CLEVELAND -170 (+15 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: AZ-CIN OVER 8.5 (+0.9), SEA-MIN OVER 6.5 (+0.6), CLE-CWS OVER 8 (+0.6), HOU-NYY OVER 8 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY
MLB Team Situational Trend Spots
The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(903) SAN FRANCISCO (17-21) at (904) COLORADO (8-28)
Trend: COL more Under during the day (4-10 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 9.5)
(905) ST LOUIS (15-21) at (906) MILWAUKEE (21-15)
Trend: MIL trending Over vs. RH starters (19-10 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8)
(907) SEATTLE (20-17) at (908) MINNESOTA (21-15)
Trend: SEA not as good during the day (4-7, -5.37 units)
System Match: FADE SEATTLE (+105 at MIN)
(909) HOUSTON (12-24) at (910) NEW YORK-AL (25-13)
Trend: HOU not great on the road (3-12, -12.38 units)
System Match: FADE HOUSTON (+114 at NYY)
(911) CLEVELAND (24-13) at (912) CHICAGO-AL (9-28)
Trend: CWS bad in divisional play so far (2-18, -14.60 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+136 vs CLE)
(913) KANSAS CITY (22-16) at (914) LOS ANGELES-AL (14-23)
Trend: KC more Under vs. LH starters (1-5 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)
MLB Pitcher Situational Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.
(903) SAN FRANCISCO (17-21) at (904) COLORADO (8-28)
Trend: Cal Quantrill is profitable in the +135 to +145 line range (9-4 record, +8.55 units)
System Match: PLAY COLORADO (+136 vs SF)
(905) ST LOUIS (15-21) at (906) MILWAUKEE (21-15)
Trend: Sonny Gray is 5-1 (+4.10 units) on the road vs. Milwaukee
System Match: PLAY ST LOUIS (-135 at MIL)
(907) SEATTLE (20-17) at (908) MINNESOTA (21-15)
Trend: SEA is 28-12 (+21.05 units) as an underdog with Logan Gilbert in the last three seasons (including 14-4 (+11.26 units) on the road within -105 to +115 line range)
System Match: PLAY SEATTLE (+105 at MIN)
Trend: Pablo Lopez is 14-3 (+10.30 units) in the short favorite line range of -118 to -130 in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (-125 vs SEA)
Top Head-To-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #17: San Francisco at Colorado, Tue 5/7-Thu 5/9
Trend: Colorado is 4-18 (18.2%, -11.73 units) in their last 22 games vs. San Francisco
– The ROI on this trend is -53.3%
System Match: FADE COLORADO (+136 vs SF)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one tomorrow 5/10)
