The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Monday, September 2, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

 

Top MLB Resources:

Trend: CHC is 14-3 (+9.38 units) as a favorite in the -145 to -165 range by starter Jameson Taillon in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO CUBS (-155 vs. PIT)

OAK letdown after series vs. TEXAS: 11-19 (36.7%) -9.23 units, ROI: -30.8%
System Matches: FADE OAKLAND (+120 vs. SEA)

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 275-291 record for +9.33 units (ROI 1.6%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (-105 at KC), TAMPA BAY (-110 vs. MIN)

Losing Streak Betting System #2:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and winning fewer than 43% of their games on the season are on a 52-121 skid (-43.49 units, ROI: -25.1%).
System Matches (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+310 at BAL)

Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 278-234 (54.3%) for +38.06 units and an ROI of 7.4% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY): TEXAS (+150 vs NYY) 

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic MLB betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:20 AM ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

To summarize the first half of 2024 season findings, the data sample contained 1449 games, and for the most part, it can be concluded that majority bettors again slowly dwindled their bankrolls over the course of the first 3-1/2 months, losing at least 2.7% in all categories. However, as you can see, they were noticeably improved over the full 2023 season in five of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 first-half results. 

–   Majority handle on sides: 792-628 (55.8%), -66.71 units – ROI -4.7% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
–  Majority number of bets on sides: 823-612 (57.4%), -61.77 units – ROI -4.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
–  Majority handle on run lines: 717-711 (50.2%). -83.92 units, ROI -5.9% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
–  Majority number of bets on run lines: 661-777 (46%). -45.98 units – ROI -3.2% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
–  Majority handle on totals: 689-688 (50%). -67.8 units – ROI -4.9% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
–  Majority number of bets on totals: 692-662 (51.1%), -36.2 units, ROI -2.7% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%)

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -5% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle. 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of last season, this supermajority group has fared quite well, going 164-66 (71.3%) for +32.84 units and a ROI of +14.3%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 25%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game for the rest of this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-395 vs CWS)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 352-297 (54.2%) for +14.32 units and an ROI of 2.2%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is a very solid number to maintain over the course of 1-1/2 baseball seasons and 649 games.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY): NONE YET TODAY

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last year-and-a-half when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 154-46 (77%) for +18.91 units and an ROI of 9.5%. This is a strong rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so proceed with caution.
System Matches (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-395 vs. CWS)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 595-505 (54.1%) for -119.1 units and an ROI of -10.8%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON (-162 at CIN), SAN DIEGO (-205 vs. DET), NY METS (-122 vs. BOS)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 180-193 (48.3%) for -102.81 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.6%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE): KANSAS CITY (-115 vs. CLE)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of last season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%, June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to a consistent -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will continue to be tracked for 2024:
– Majority handle bettors in SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER games have gone just 244-215 (53.2%) for -76.5 units and an ROI of -16.7% since the start of the ’23 season.
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS THIS MONTH

DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for under the total. This group has gone 171-125 (57.8%) since the start of last season for +33.5 units and a ROI of 11.3%!
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): NYY-TEX (o/u at 9)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The ROI on this angle settled at +4.4% ROI. As of 9/1, the record of this angle is at 94-36 for +1.29 units (huge loss of -360 by NYY on 8/24).
System Matches (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-395 vs. CWS)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the ‘23 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. So far in the 2024 season, these teams have produced a 305-369 record for -18.95 units (ROI -2.8%). This is below standards historically for me, but I am nowhere near ready to abandon it, especially after back-to-back winning weeks.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (-105 at KC), TAMPA BAY (-110 vs MIN), DETROIT (+170 at SD)

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 275-291 record for +9.33 units (ROI 1.6%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (-105 at KC), TAMPA BAY (-110 vs. MIN)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 163-194 for -22.14 units. The 3-game teams are 83-88 for -1.76 units.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE ST LOUIS (+145 at MIL), FADE TEXAS (+150 vs. NYY)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1657-1552 (51.6%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -193.80 units. This represents an ROI of -6%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ST LOUIS (+145 at MIL), CHICAGO CUBS (-155 vs. PIT), ARIZONA (+120 vs. LAD)

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1567-2003 (43.9%) for -177.13 units and an ROI of -5% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (+102 at NYM), PITTSBURGH (+130 at CHC), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+310 at BAL), SEATTLE (-142 at OAK)

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3343-2931 (53.3%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -440.50 units and an ROI of -7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-155 vs. PIT), TEXAS (+150 vs. NYY), BALTIMORE (-395 vs. CWS), ARIZONA (+120 vs. LAD)

Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 936-816 (53.4%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +6.75 units for backers and an ROI of 0.4%.
System Matches (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-110 vs. MIN)

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 480-406 (54.2%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +20.47 units, for an ROI of 2.3%.
System Matches (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-110 vs. MIN)

Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 278-234 (54.3%) for +38.06 units and an ROI of 7.4% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY): TEXAS (+150 vs NYY)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Losing Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more are on a 29-88 skid (-41.21 units, ROI -35.2%) in the next game when playing as road underdogs.
System Matches (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+310 at BAL)

Losing Streak Betting System #2:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and winning fewer than 43% of their games on the season are on a 52-121 skid (-43.49 units, ROI: -25.1%).
System Matches (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+310 at BAL)

Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 15-15 (+10.07 units, ROI: 33.6%), while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 66-149 (-66.39 units, ROI: -30.9%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+310 at BAL)

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 175-173 run (+31.23 units, ROI: 9%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+310 at BAL), KANSAS CITY (-112 vs CLE)

Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a 4-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 147-165 (+2.64 units, ROI: 0.8%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+310 at BAL) 

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CHICAGO WHITE SOX +310 (+75 diff), DETROIT +170 (+45 diff)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LA DODGERS -142 (+25 diff), TAMPA BAY -110 (+27 diff), NY METS -122 (+19 diff)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CLE-KC OVER 8 (+0.7)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PIT-CHC UNDER 7.5 (-0.6)

MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.

(901) ST LOUIS (69-68) at (902) MILWAUKEE (80-57)
Trend: STL more Under during the day (23-33 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7.5)

(903) LOS ANGELES-NL (82-55) at (904) ARIZONA (77-60)
Trend: LAD better vs. LH starters (30-14, +3.06 units)
System Match: PLAY LA DODGERS (-142 at AZ) 

(907) CHICAGO-AL (31-107) at (908) BALTIMORE (79-59)
Trend: BAL slight Over vs. AL Central/West (31-18 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8)

(909) CLEVELAND (78-59) at (910) KANSAS CITY (75-63)
Trend: KC better at home (41-28, +7.90 units)
System Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY (-115 vs. CLE) 

(911) MINNESOTA (74-62) at (912) TAMPA BAY (67-69)
Trend: TB trending Under vs. AL Central/West (19-33 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)

(913) SEATTLE (69-68) at (914) OAKLAND (59-78)
Trend: SEA bad on the road (28-40, -19.95 units)
System Match: FADE SEATTLE (-142 at OAK) 

(915) NEW YORK-AL (79-58) at (916) TEXAS (65-72)
Trend: TEX trending Under at home (23-43 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 9) 

(919) DETROIT (70-68) at (920) SAN DIEGO (78-61)
Trend: SD slight Over at home (41-26 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 7.5)

MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.

(901) ST LOUIS (69-68) at (902) MILWAUKEE (80-57)
Trend: MIL is 5-10 (-11.45 units) in September/October with starter Freddy Peralta in the last three seasons
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE (-175 vs STL)

Trend: MIL is 5-8 (-6.45 units) vs St Louis with starter Freddy Peralta in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE (-175 vs STL)

(903) LOS ANGELES-NL (82-55) at (904) ARIZONA (77-60)
Trend: Jack Flaherty is 4-6 (-2.65 units) in road games against NL West opponents
System Match: FADE LA DODGERS (-142 at AZ)

(905) PITTSBURGH (63-73) at (906) CHICAGO-NL (71-66)
Trend: CHC is 14-3 (+9.38 units) as a favorite in the -145 to -165 range by starter Jameson Taillon in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO CUBS (-155 vs. PIT) 

(909) CLEVELAND (78-59) at (910) KANSAS CITY (75-63)
Trend: Gavin Williams is 2-4 (-4.89 units) this season vs divisional opponents
System Match: FADE CLEVELAND (-108 at KC) 

(917) HOUSTON (75-62) at (918) CINCINNATI (65-73)
Trend: HOU is 12-4 (+6.12 units) as a road favorite within line range of -140 to -160 with starter Justin Verlander in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY HOUSTON (*if they fall into this line range, -162 currently*)

(921) BOSTON (70-67) at (922) NEW YORK-NL (73-64)
Trend: BOS is 6-2 (+4.85 units) on the road against NL with starter Brayan Bello
System Match: PLAY BOSTON (+102 at NYM) 

Series #18: Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs, Mon 9/2-Wed 9/4
Trend: Pittsburgh is 7-18 (28%, -8.79 units) in their last 25 games at Chicago Cubs
–  The ROI on this trend is -35.2%
System Matches: FADE PITTSBURGH (+130 at CHC) 

Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

OAKLAND
LETDOWN after series vs. TEXAS: 11-19 (36.7%) -9.23 units, ROI: -30.8%    Next betting opportunity: Monday 9/2 vs. Seattle
System Matches: FADE OAKLAND (+120 vs. SEA)

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