Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Wednesday, September 4, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Top MLB Resources:
Trend: Atlanta has won 15 of the last 18 games against Colorado (83.3%, +8.23 units)
– The R.O.I. on this trend is 45.7%
System Matches: PLAY ATLANTA (-285 vs. COL)
Trend: Nathan Eovaldi is 22-5 (+17.60 units) in Sept/Oct/Nov since 2020
System Match: PLAY TEXAS (-110 vs. NYY)
Trend: MIA awful vs. LH starters (9-39, -29.21 units)
System Match: FADE MIAMI (+114 vs WSH)
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 175-176 run (+28.11 units, ROI: 8%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): KANSAS CITY (-135 vs. CLE), BOSTON (-108 at NYM), SEATTLE (-142 at OAK)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 480-407 (54.1%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +19.45 units, for an ROI of 2.2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (-108 vs. MIN), CHICAGO CUBS (-198 vs. PIT)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic MLB betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
To summarize the first half of 2024 season findings, the data sample contained 1449 games, and for the most part, it can be concluded that majority bettors again slowly dwindled their bankrolls over the course of the first 3-1/2 months, losing at least 2.7% in all categories. However, as you can see, they were noticeably improved over the full 2023 season in five of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 first half results:
– Majority handle on sides: 792-628 (55.8%), -66.71 units – ROI -4.7% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
– Majority number of bets on sides: 823-612 (57.4%), -61.77 units – ROI -4.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
– Majority handle on run lines: 717-711 (50.2%). -83.92 units, ROI -5.9% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– Majority number of bets on run lines: 661-777 (46%). -45.98 units – ROI -3.2% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– Majority handle on totals: 689-688 (50%). -67.8 units – ROI -4.9% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
– Majority number of bets on totals: 692-662 (51.1%), -36.2 units, ROI -2.7% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%)
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -5% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of last season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 164-66 (71.3%) for +32.84 units and an ROI of +14.3%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 25%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game for the rest of this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-198 vs. PIT)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 352-297 (54.2%) for +14.32 units and an ROI of 2.2%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is a very solid number to maintain over the course of 1-1/2 baseball seasons and 649 games.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-108 at NYM), KANSAS CITY (-135 vs. CLE)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last year-and-a-half when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 154-46 (77%) for +18.91 units and an ROI of 9.5%. This is a strong rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so proceed with caution.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (-355 vs. CWS), ATLANTA (-285 vs. COL)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group is 80-51 (61.1%) for -40.05 UNITS and an ROI of -30.6%. This is a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly.
System Matches (FADE): LA DODGERS (-205 at LAA)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 595-505 (54.1%) for -119.1 units and an ROI of -10.8%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA, HOUSTON, BOSTON, LA DODGERS, SAN DIEGO
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 180-193 (48.3%) for -102.81 UNITS and an atrocious ROI of -27.6%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE): KANSAS CITY (-135 vs. CLE)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of last season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%, June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to a consistent -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%:
– Majority handle bettors in September/October games have gone just 244-215 (53.2%) for -76.5 units and an ROI of -16.7% since the start of the 2023 season.
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS THIS MONTH
DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (9 or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 171-125 (57.8%) since the start of last season for +33.5 units and an ROI of 11.3%!
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): NONE YET TODAY
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are again losing money, 106-59 for -25.27 units and an ROI of -15.3%.
System Matches (FADE): ATLANTA (-285 vs. COL)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The ROI on this angle settled at +4.4% ROI last year. As of 9/3, the record of this angle in 2024 has settled at 95-36 for +2.29 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (-355 vs. CWS), LA DODGERS (-205 at LAA)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. So far in the 2024 season, these teams have produced a 308-374 record for -20.06 units (ROI -2.9%). This is below standards historically for me but I am nowhere near ready to abandon it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+114 vs. WSH), SAN FRANCISCO (+124 vs. AZ), TAMPA BAY (-108 vs. MIN), CLEVELAND (+114 at KC), NY YANKEES (-110 at TEX), DETROIT (+170 at SD)
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 276-294 record for +8.52 units (ROI 1.5%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+114 vs. WSH), SAN FRANCISCO (+124 vs. AZ), TAMPA BAY (-108 vs. MIN), CLEVELAND (+114 at KC), NY YANKEES (-110 at TEX)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, I found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 162-201 for -40.16 units (-11.1% ROI). The three-game teams are 79-84 for -4.5 units (-2.8% ROI).
System Matches: 2-games – FADE PITTSBURGH (+164 at CHC), FADE OAKLAND (+120 vs. SEA), FADE CINCINNATI (+120 vs. HOU), FADE SAN DIEGO (-205 vs. DET)
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 166 plays on this angle so far in 2024 through 9/3 and these teams are 94-72 for +8.78 units (5.3% ROI).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SEATTLE (-142 at OAK), SAN FRANCISCO (+124 vs. AZ)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing 8 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored 9 runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1659-1556(51.6%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -196.90units. This represents an ROI of -6.1%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE (-355 vs. CWS), PHILADELPHIA (-130 at TOR), TORONTO (+110 vs. PHI)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1569-2008(43.9%) for -180.30 units and an ROI of -5% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX, DETROIT, MINNESOTA, BOSTON, COLORADO, SEATTLE
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored 5 runs or more are winning more often than not at 3346-2937(53.3%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -444.41units and an ROI of -7.1%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE, CINCINNATI, TORONTO, NY METS, TEXAS, SAN FRANCISCO
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 480-407(54.1%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +19.45 units, for an ROI of 2.2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (-108 vs. MIN), CHICAGO CUBS (-198 vs. PIT)
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 278-235 (54.2%) for +37.06 units and an ROI of 7.2% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY): TORONTO (+110 vs. PHI)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more are on a 29-90 skid (-43.21 units, ROI -36.3%) in the next game when playing as road underdogs.
System Matches (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+280 at BAL)
Losing Streak Betting System #2:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and winning fewer than 43% of their games on the season are on a 52-123 skid (-45.49 units, ROI: -26%).
System Matches (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+280 at BAL)
Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 15-15 (+10.07 units, ROI: 33.6%), while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 66-151 (-68.39 units, ROI: -31.5%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+280 at BAL), KANSAS CITY (-135 vs CLE)
Losing Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and playing against divisional opponents are just 31-66 in their last 97 tries (-20.71 units, ROI: -21.4%). Divisional foes love to stomp on their rivals when they are down.
System Matches (FADE): KANSAS CITY (-135 vs. CLE)
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 175-176 run (+28.11units, ROI: 8%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): KANSAS CITY (-135 vs. CLE), BOSTON (-108 at NYM), SEATTLE (-142 at OAK)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIAMI +114 (+30 diff), COLORADO +230 (+50 diff), PITTSBURGH +170 (+15 diff), SAN FRANCISCO +124 (+33 diff), CHICAGO WHITE SOX +285 (+75 diff), OAKLAND +124 (+18 diff), DETROIT +170 (+23 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MILWAUKEE -120 (+19 diff), MINNESOTA -112 (+22 diff), LA DODGERS -205 (+25 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONFAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NYY-TEX OVER 8.5 (+0.6)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CWS-BAL UNDER 8.5 (-0.8), LAD-LAA UNDER 10 (-0.7), MIN-TB UNDER 8 (-0.6), CLE-KC UNDER 8.5 (-0.5), PIT-CHC UNDER 8 (-0.5)
MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(901) WASHINGTON (62-76) at (902) MIAMI (51-87)
Trend: MIA awful vs. LH starters (9-39, -29.21 units)
System Match: FADE MIAMI (+114 vs. WSH)
(903) COLORADO (51-88) at (904) ATLANTA (75-63)
Trend: ATL more Under at home (20-43 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)
(907) ST LOUIS (70-69) at (908) MILWAUKEE (81-58)
Trend: MIL trending Over at home (38-22 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8)
(909) ARIZONA (78-61) at (910) SAN FRANCISCO (68-71)
Trend: AZ trending Over vs. divisional teams (29-11 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 7.5)
(911) CHICAGO-AL (31-109) at (912) BALTIMORE (81-59)
Trend: BAL slight Over vs. AL Central/West (32-18 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8.5)
(913) MINNESOTA (75-63) at (914) TAMPA BAY (68-70)
Trend: TB trending Under vs. AL Central/West (20-34 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)
(917) NEW YORK-AL (80-59) at (918) TEXAS (66-73)
Trend: TEX more Under at home this season (25-43 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)
(919) SEATTLE (69-70) at (920) OAKLAND (61-78)
Trend: SEA bad on the road (28-42, -22.99 units)
System Match: FADE SEATTLE (-142 at OAK)
(921) PHILADELPHIA (82-56) at (922) TORONTO (67-73)
Trend: Over the total is 15-7 when TOR is a home underdog this season
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8)
(923) HOUSTON (75-63) at (924) CINCINNATI (66-73)
Trend: HOU slight Under on the road (26-40 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 9)
(927) LOS ANGELES-NL (84-55) at (928) LOS ANGELES-AL (57-81)
Trend: LAA worse at home (29-42, -9.63 units)
System Match: FADE LA ANGELS (+170 vs. LAD)
(929) DETROIT (70-69) at (930) SAN DIEGO (79-61)
Trend: SD trending Over vs. RH starters (57-37 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8)
MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.
(901) WASHINGTON (62-76) at (902) MIAMI (51-87)
Trend: MacKenzie Gore is 7-14 (-5.28 units) vs. NL East opponents in his career
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON (-135 at MIA)
(907) ST LOUIS (70-69) at (908) MILWAUKEE (81-58)
Trend: Sonny Gray is 5-2 (+2.68 units) on road vs. Milwaukee
System Match: PLAY ST LOUIS (-102 at MIL)
Trend: Colin Rea has been dominant in the -120 to +135 line range, going 20-4 (+17.73 units) in the last two seasons for MIL
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (-118 vs. STL)
(917) NEW YORK-AL (80-59) at (918) TEXAS (66-73)
Trend: Nathan Eovaldi is 22-5 (+17.60 units) in Sept/Oct/Nov since 2020
System Match: PLAY TEXAS (-110 vs. NYY)
(919) SEATTLE (69-70) at (920) OAKLAND (61-78)
Trend: George Kirby is 6-1 (+4.20 units) vs. Oakland in the last three seasons
System Match: PLAY SEATTLE (-142 at OAK)
Trend: SEA is 16-7 (+4.45 units) as a ROAD favorite of -125 or higher with George Kirby in the last three seasons
System Match: PLAY SEATTLE (-142 at OAK)
(921) PHILADELPHIA (82-56) at (922) TORONTO (67-73)
Trend: PHI is 8-17 (-12.58 units) in line range of -145 or worse with starter Cristopher Sanchez the last 2+ seasons
System Match:FADE PHILADELPHIA (-130 at TOR)
(925) BOSTON (70-69) at (926) NEW YORK-NL (75-64)
Trend: BOS is 4-14 (-10.65 units) in the -120 to +100 line range by starter Tanner Houck
System Match: FADE BOSTON (-108 at NYM)
(929) DETROIT (70-69) at (930) SAN DIEGO (79-61)
Trend: SD is 15-7 (+1.55 units) as a home favorite within line range of -180 to -240 with starter Yu Darvish in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY SAN DIEGO (-205 vs. DET)
Top Head-To-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #18: Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs, Mon 9/2-Wed 9/4
Trend: Pittsburgh is 9-18 (33.3%, -6.49 units) in their L27 games at Chicago Cubs
– The ROI on this trend is -24%
System Matches: FADE PITTSBURGH (+164 at CHC)
Series #21:Colorado at Atlanta, Tue 9/3-Thu9/5
Trend: Atlanta has won 15 of the last 18 games against Colorado (83.3%, +8.23 units)
– The ROI on this trend is 45.7%
System Matches: PLAY ATLANTA (-285 vs. COL)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next couple tomorrow 9/5)
