Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Thursday, September 5, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Top MLB Resources:
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 278-236 (54.1%) for +36.06 units and an ROI of 7% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OAKLAND (+130 vs. SEA), PITTSBURGH (-115 vs. WSH)
Trend: Austin Gomber not good when overmatched on paper, just 3-18 (-12.20 units) as large underdog of +175 or more
System Match: FADE COLORADO (+230 at ATL)
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
– Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 168 plays on this angle so far in 2024 through 9/4 and these teams are 95-73 for +8.78 units (5.2% ROI).
System Matches (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-155 vs. AZ)
Trend: Pablo Lopez is 1-5 (-4.30 units) vs. Tampa Bay in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE MINNESOTA (-148 at TB)
Trend: MIA awful vs. LH starters (10-39, -27.97 units)
System Match: FADE MIAMI (+200 vs. PHI)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic MLB betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
To summarize the first half of 2024 season findings, the data sample contained 1449 games, and for the most part, it can be concluded that majority bettors again slowly dwindled their bankrolls over the course of the first 3-1/2 months, losing at least 2.7% in all categories. However, as you can see, they were noticeably improved over the full 2023 season in five of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 first-half results:
– Majority HANDLE on sides: 792-628 (55.8%), -66.71 UNITS – ROI -4.7% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
– Majority number of BETS on sides: 823-612 (57.4%), -61.77 UNITS – ROI -4.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
– Majority HANDLE on run lines: 717-711 (50.2%). -83.92 UNITS, ROI -5.9% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– Majority number of BETS on run lines: 661-777 (46%). -45.98 UNITS – ROI -3.2% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– Majority HANDLE on totals: 689-688 (50%). -67.8 UNITS – ROI -4.9% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
– Majority number of BETS on totals: 692-662 (51.1%), -36.2 UNITS, ROI -2.7% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%)
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -5% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB moneyline wager since the beginning of last season, this supermajority group has fared quite well, going 164-66 (71.3%) for +32.84 units and an ROI of +14.3%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 25%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game for the rest of this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY): NONE YET TODAY
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 352-297 (54.2%) for +14.32 units and an ROI of 2.2%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is a very solid number to maintain over the course of 1-1/2 baseball seasons and 649 games.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): ARIZONA (+130 at SF), PITTSBURGH (-118 vs. WSH)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last year-and-a-half when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 154-46 (77%) for +18.91 units and a ROI of 9.5%.This is a strong rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so proceed with caution.
System Matches (PLAY): ATLANTA (-285 vs. COL)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group is 80-51 (61.1%) for -40.05 units and an ROI of -30.6%. This is a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly.
System Matches (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-245 at MIA)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 595-505 (54.1%) for -119.1 UNITS and an ROI of -10.8%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON (-162 at CIN), SAN DIEGO (-162 vs. DET)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of last season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%, June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to a consistent -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.
– Majority handle bettors in September/October games have gone just 244-215 (53.2%) for -76.5 units and an ROI of -16.7% since the start of the ’23 season.
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS THIS MONTH
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
– In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an R.O.I. of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are again losing money, 109-59 for -22.27 units and an ROI of -13.3%.
System Matches (FADE): ATLANTA (-285 vs. COL)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
– A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The ROI on this angle settled at +4.4% ROI last year. As of 9/4, the record of this angle in 2024 has settled at 95-36 for -3.51 units (huge losses on 9/4 by LAD and BAL).
System Matches (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-245 at MIA)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
– A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. So far in the 2024 season, these teams have produced a 310-376 record for -19.77 units (ROI -2.9%). This is below standards historically for me but I am nowhere near ready to abandon it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON (-102 at PIT), TAMPA BAY (+124 vs MIN), LA ANGELS (+145 at TEX)
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
– Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 278-296 record for +8.81 units (ROI 1.5%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON (-102 at PIT), TAMPA BAY (+124 vs. MIN)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
– In 2023, I found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The R.O.I. on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 164-203 for -39.92 units (-10.9% ROI). The three-game teams are 79-84 for -4.5 units (-2.8% ROI).
System Matches: 2-games – FADE ARIZONA (+130 at SF), FADE TEXAS (-175 vs LAA)
3-games – FADE CINCINNATI (+136 vs HOU)
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
– Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 168 plays on this angle so far in 2024 through 9/4 and these teams are 95-73 for +8.78 units (5.2% ROI).
System Matches (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-155 vs. AZ)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of 7 runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 360-339(51.5%) for +30.34 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 4.3%.
System Matches (PLAY): OAKLAND (+130 vs. SEA)
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road; if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1660-1558(51.6%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -200.65 units. This represents an ROI of -6.2%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TAMPA BAY (+124 vs. MIN), CINCINNATI (+136 vs. HOU), TEXAS (-175 vs. LAA), LA ANGELS (+145 at TEX), SEATTLE (-155 at OAK)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1571-2012 (43.8%) for -180.60 units and an ROI of -5% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE): COLORADO (+230 at ATL)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3349-2940 (53.3%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -446.92 units and an ROI of -7.1%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TAMPA BAY (+124 vs. MIN), CINCINNATI (+136 vs. HOU), ATLANTA (-285 vs. COL), TEXAS (-175 vs. LAA), SAN DIEGO (-162 vs. DET)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 482-407 (54.2%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +21.50 units, for an ROI of 2.4%.
System Matches (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (-115 vs. WSH)
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 278-236 (54.1%) for +36.06 units and an R.O.I. of 7% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OAKLAND (+130 vs. SEA), PITTSBURGH (-115 vs. WSH)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY (next couple tomorrow 9/6)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIAMI +200 (+20 diff), COLORADO +230 (+35 diff), OAKLAND +130 (+16 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PITTSBURGH -118 (+18 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PHI-MIA OVER 8 (+0.6), LAA-TEX OVER 8 (+0.6)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: DET-SD UNDER 8.5 (-0.7)
MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(951) ARIZONA (79-61) at (952) SAN FRANCISCO (68-72)
Trend: AZ trending Over vs. divisional teams (30-11 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 7)
(953) PHILADELPHIA (83-56) at (954) MIAMI (52-87)
Trend: MIA awful vs. LH starters (10-39, -27.97 units)
System Match: FADE MIAMI (+200 vs PHI)
(957) COLORADO (51-89) at (958) ATLANTA (76-63)
Trend: ATL better vs. LH starters (27-15, +3.68 units)
System Match: PLAY ATLANTA (-285 vs. COL)
(959) MINNESOTA (75-64) at (960) TAMPA BAY (69-70)
Trend: TB trending Under vs. AL Central/West (21-34 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7)
(961) SEATTLE (70-70) at (962) OAKLAND (61-79)
Trend: SEA bad on the road (29-42, -21.99 units)
System Match: FADE SEATTLE (-155 at OAK)
(963) LOS ANGELES-AL (58-81) at (964) TEXAS (67-73)
Trend: TEX more Under at home this season (26-43 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)
(965) HOUSTON (75-64) at (966) CINCINNATI (67-73)
Trend: CIN not good during the day (21-32, -13.86 units)
System Match: FADE CINCINNATI (+136 vs HOU)
(967) DETROIT (70-70) at (968) SAN DIEGO (80-61)
Trend: SD slight Over at home (42-27 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8.5)
MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.
(955) WASHINGTON (62-77) at (956) PITTSBURGH (65-74)
Trend: Bailey Falter is 9-5 (+4.05 units) as a home night starter in the last three seasons
System Match: PLAY PITTSBURGH (-115 vs. WSH)
(957) COLORADO (51-89) at (958) ATLANTA (76-63)
Trend: Austin Gomber not good when overmatched on paper, just 3-18 (-12.20 units) as a large underdog of +175 or more
System Match: FADE COLORADO (+230 at ATL)
(959) MINNESOTA (75-64) at (960) TAMPA BAY (69-70)
Trend: Pablo Lopez is 1-5 (-4.30 units) vs Tampa Bay in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE MINNESOTA (-148 at TB)
(961) SEATTLE (70-70) at (962) OAKLAND (61-79)
Trend: SEA is 5-0 (+5.00 units) in day games with starter Bryan Woo this season
System Match: PLAY SEATTLE (-155 at OAK)
Top Head-To-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #21: Colorado at Atlanta, Tue 9/3-Thu9/5
Trend: Atlanta has won 16 of the last 19 games against Colorado (84.2%, +9.23 units)
– The ROI on this trend is48.6%
System Matches: PLAY ATLANTA (-285 vs. COL)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
MIAMI
Momentum after series vs. WASHINGTON: 18-13 (58.1%) 10.98 units, ROI: 35.4%
Next betting opportunity: Thursday 9/5 vs. Philadelphia
System Matches: PLAY MIAMI (+200 vs. PHI)
PITTSBURGH
Letdown after series vs. CHICAGO CUBS: 12-18 (40%) -2.94 units, ROI: -9.8%
Next betting opportunity: Thursday 9/5 vs. Washington
System Matches: FADE PITTSBURGH (-115 vs. WSH)
