The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Friday, September 6, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

 

Top MLB Resources:

Trend: Under the total is 8-1 (88.9%, +6.85 units) in the last nine games of CWS-BOS in Boston (total runs in these games are at 5.8 RPG)
– The ROI on this trend is 76.1%
System Matches: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)

Trend: Sean Manaea is 11-0 (+11.00 units) as a home favorite of -180 or more in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY NY METS (-185 vs. CIN)

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 177-177 run (+29.11 units, ROI: 8.2%).
System Matches (PLAY): BOSTON (-278 vs. CWS)

CHC Momentum after series vs. PITTSBURGH: 21-9 (70%) +11.76 units, ROI: 39.2% 
System Matches: PLAY CHICAGO CUBS (+114 vs. NYY) 

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 278-298 record, for +6.81 units (ROI 1.2%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON (+100 at PIT), TAMPA BAY (+120 at BAL), LA ANGELS (+136 at TEX), MINNESOTA (+120 at KC), CHICAGO CUBS (+114 vs. NYY), SEATTLE (-108 at STL), CLEVELAND (+130 at LAD) 

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic MLB betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 9:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

To summarize the first half of 2024 season findings, the data sample contained 1449 games, and for the most part, it can be concluded that majority bettors again slowly dwindled their bankrolls over the course of the first 3-1/2 months, losing at least 2.7% in all categories. However, as you can see, they were noticeably improved over the full 2023 season in five of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 first-half results:

– Majority handle on sides: 792-628 (55.8%), -66.71 units – ROI -4.7% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
– Majority number of bets on sides: 823-612 (57.4%), -61.77 units – ROI -4.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
– Majority handle on run lines: 717-711 (50.2%). -83.92 units, ROI -5.9% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– Majority number of bets on run lines: 661-777 (46%). -45.98 units – ROI -3.2% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– Majority handle on totals: 689-688 (50%). -67.8 units – ROI -4.9% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
– Majority number of bets on totals: 692-662 (51.1%), -36.2 units, ROI -2.7% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%)

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -5% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of last season, this supermajority group has fared quite well, going 164-66 (71.3%) for +32.84 units and an ROI of +14.3%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 25%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game for the rest of this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-225 vs. COL), BALTIMORE (-142 vs. TB), BOSTON (-285 vs. CWS) 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 352-297 (54.2%) for +14.32 units and an ROI of 2.2%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is a very solid number to maintain over the course of 1-1/2 baseball seasons and 649 games.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY): ST LOUIS (-112 vs. SEA)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last year-and-a-half when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 154-46 (77%) for +18.91 units and a ROI of 9.5%. This is a strong rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so proceed with caution.
System Matches (PLAY): BOSTON (-285 vs. CWS)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group is 80-51 (61.1%) for -40.05 units and an ROI of -30.6%. This is a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly.
System Matches (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-238 at MIA)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 595-505 (54.1%) for -119.1 units and an ROI of -10.8%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES, ATLANTA, HOUSTON, ST. LOUIS, LA DODGERS

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 180-193 (48.3%) for -102.81 UNITS and an atrocious ROI of -27.6%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE): HOUSTON (-170 vs. AZ)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of last season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%, June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to a consistent -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.
– Majority handle bettors in September/October games have gone just 244-215 (53.2%) for -76.5 units and an ROI of -16.7% since the start of the 2023 season.
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS THIS MONTH 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (9 or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 171-125 (57.8%) since the start of last season for +33.5 units and a ROI of 11.3%!
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): CLE-LAD

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
 In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an R.O.I. of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are again losing money, 109-60 for -25.17 units and an ROI of -14.9%.
System Matches (FADE): SAN DIEGO (-218 vs SF) 

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The ROI on this angle settled at +4.4% ROI last year. As of 9/5, the record of this angle in 2024 has settled at 96-36 for -2.51 units (huge losses on 9/4 by LAD and BAL).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-225 vs. COL), PHILADELPHIA (-230 at MIA)

Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
 In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites went just 80-74, but for -87.21 units in the 2023 regular season! This angle is so far 64-37 since opening day 2024 and has lost -16.96 units, an ROI of -16.8%, solid results once again.
System Matches (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-225 vs. COL)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. So far in the 2024 season, these teams have produced a 310-379 record for -22.77 units (ROI -3.3%). This is below standards historically for me but I am nowhere near ready to abandon it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON (+100 at PIT), TAMPA BAY (+120 at BAL), LA ANGELS (+136 at TEX), MINNESOTA (+120 at KC), CHICAGO CUBS (+114 vs. NYY), SEATTLE (-108 at STL), CLEVELAND (+130 at LAD)

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely    Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 278-298 record, for +6.81 units (ROI 1.2%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON (+100 at PIT), TAMPA BAY (+120 at BAL), LA ANGELS (+136 at TEX), MINNESOTA (+120 at KC), CHICAGO CUBS (+114 vs. NYY), SEATTLE (-108 at STL), CLEVELAND (+130 at LAD)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
 In 2023, I found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 165-204 for -39.92 units (-10.8% ROI). The three-game teams are 80-84 for -3.2 units (-2% ROI).
System Matches: 2-games – FADE ST LOUIS (-112 vs. SEA)
3+ games – FADE CINCINNATI (+154 at NYM), FADE TEXAS (-162 vs. LAA)

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
 Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 169 plays on this angle so far in 2024 through 9/5 and these teams are 96-73 for +9.78 units (5.8% ROI).
System Matches (PLAY): HOUSTON (-175 vs. AZ)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored 9 runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1663-1560(51.6%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -199.35units. This represents an ROI of -6.2%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (-130 vs. WSH), CHICAGO CUBS (+120 vs. NYY) 

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1572-2012 (43.9%) for -178.50 units and an ROI of -5% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI (+154 at NYM), TORONTO (+145 at ATL), CLEVELAND (+130 at LAD), ARIZONA (+136 at HOU), LA ANGELS (+136 at TEX)

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3351-2943 (53.2%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -450.14 units and an ROI of -7.2%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (+120 vs. NYY), NY METS (-185 vs. CIN), PITTSBURGH (-130 vs. WSH)

Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 939-820 (53.4%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +5.58 units for backers and an ROI of 0.3%.
System Matches (PLAY): HOUSTON (-162 vs. AZ)

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 483-407(54.3%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +22.50 units, for an ROI of 2.5%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON (-162 vs. AZ), LA DODGERS (-155 vs. CLE)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks. 

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 177-177 run (+29.11 units, ROI: 8.2%).
System Matches (PLAY): BOSTON (-278 vs. CWS)

Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 148-167(+3.59 units, ROI:1.1%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (PLAY): BOSTON (-278 vs. CWS)

Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 181-121 in their last 302 tries (+20.76 units, ROI: 6.9%).
System Matches (PLAY): NY METS (-185 vs. CIN)

Winning Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have won their last four games but are playing on the road as large underdogs (+140 or more) have struggled, going 23-50 (-6.71 units, ROI: -9.2%) in their last 73 tries.
System Matches (FADE): CINCINNATI (+154 at NYM)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SAN FRANCISCO +180 (+24 diff), CHICAGO WHITE SOX +230 (+18 diff), ARIZONA +145 (+20 diff) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PITTSBURGH -120 (+24 diff), DETROIT -162 (+25 diff), LA DODGERS -155 (+21 diff)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NYY-CHC OVER 7 (+1.0), AZ-HOU OVER 7.5 (+0.9), COL-MIL OVER 7.5 (+0.8), MIN-KC OVER 7.5 (+0.6)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CLE-LAD UNDER 9 (-1.0), TB-BAL UNDER 8.5 (-0.6), WSH-PIT UNDER 8.5 (-0.5)

MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.

(901) COLORADO (52-89) at (902) MILWAUKEE (81-59)
Trend: MIL more Over at home (38-23 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 7.5) 

(903) WASHINGTON (62-78) at (904) PITTSBURGH (66-74)
Trend: WSH trending Over vs. NL Central/West (35-22 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8.5) 

(905) CINCINNATI (68-73) at (906) NEW YORK-NL (76-64)
Trend: CIN worse vs. LH starters (16-23, -10.95 units)
System Match: FADE CINCINNATI (+154 at NYM)

(909) SAN FRANCISCO (69-72) at (910) SAN DIEGO (80-62)
Trend: Over the total is 4-0 this season in the series at San Diego
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8) 

(911) TAMPA BAY (69-71) at (912) BALTIMORE (81-60)
Trend: BAL is 10-2 in the last 12 games vs Tampa Bay
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (-142 vs TB) 

(913) CHICAGO-AL (32-109) at (914) BOSTON (70-70)
Trend: CWS awful on the road (14-55, -31.15 units)
System Match:FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+230 at BOS) 

(915) LOS ANGELES-AL (58-82) at (916) TEXAS (68-73)
Trend: TEX more Under at home this season (26-44 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 9) 

(919) DETROIT (71-70) at (920) OAKLAND (61-80)
Trend: OAK not as bad vs. LH starters (16-15, +7.70 units)
System Match: PLAY OAKLAND (+150 vs DET) 

(921) NEW YORK-AL (80-60) at (922) CHICAGO-NL (72-68)
Trend: CHC good in interleague play (25-15, +10.38 units)
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO CUBS (+120 vs NYY) 

(923) TORONTO (67-74) at (924) ATLANTA (76-64)
Trend: ATL trending Under vs. AL teams (11-25 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8) 

(927) SEATTLE (71-70) at (928) ST LOUIS (71-69)
Trend: SEA bad on the road (30-42, -20.99 units)
System Match: FADE SEATTLE (-105 at STL) 

(929) CLEVELAND (80-60) at (930) LOS ANGELES-NL (84-56)
Trend: CLE slight Under vs. NL teams (12-23 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 9) 

MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.

(905) CINCINNATI (68-73) at (906) NEW YORK-NL (76-64)
Trend: Sean Manaea is 11-0 (+11.00 units) as a home favorite of -180 or more in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY NY METS (-185 vs. CIN)

(907) PHILADELPHIA (84-56) at (908) MIAMI (52-88)
Trend: MIA is 3-8 (-4.46 units) against teams with a >57% win pct with starter Edward Cabrera in the last three seasons
System Match: FADE MIAMI (+190 vs. PHI)

(911) TAMPA BAY (69-71) at (912) BALTIMORE (81-60)
Trend: BAL is 27-11 (+13.79 units) in the last 2+ seasons in Home games with starter Dean Kremer
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (-142 vs. TB)

Trend: BAL is 12-2 (+10.84 units) in Divisional Games with starter Dean Kremer in the last two seasons
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (-142 vs. TB)

(913) CHICAGO-AL (32-109) at (914) BOSTON (70-70)
Trend: BOS is 8-2 (+3.77 units) as a favorite of -195 or higher with starter Nick Pivetta (including 8-1 at home)
System Match: PLAY BOSTON (-285 vs. CWS)

(923) TORONTO (67-74) at (924) ATLANTA (76-64)
Trend: Kevin Gausman is 4-9 (-4.36 units) as a road night underdog in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE TORONTO (+145 at ATL)

(927) SEATTLE (71-70) at (928) ST LOUIS (71-69)
Trend: Erick Fedde is 17-7 (+10.42 units) in the -115 to +110 line range
System Match: PLAY ST. LOUIS (-115 vs. SEA)

Series #8: Colorado at Milwaukee, Fri 9/6-Sun 9/8
Trend: Home teams are 15-5 (75%, +9.98 units) in the last 20 games between Colorado and Milwaukee
– The ROI on this trend is 49.9%
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (-230 vs. COL)

Series #23: Toronto at Atlanta, Fri 9/6 – Sun 9/8
Trend: Atlanta is 1-10 (9.1%, -11.40 units) in the last 11 games against Toronto (since mid-2020)
– The ROI on this trend is -104%
System Matches: FADE ATLANTA (-175 vs. TOR)

Series #27: Chicago White Sox at Boston, Fri 9/6 – Sun 9/8
Trend: Under the total is 8-1 (88.9%, +6.85 units) in the last 9 games of CWS-BOS in Boston (total runs in these games are at 5.8 RPG)
– The ROI on this trend is 76.1%
System Matches: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)

Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

ARIZONA
Letdown after series vs. SAN FRANCISCO: 6-14 (30%) -7.88 units, ROI: -39.4%
Next betting opportunity: Friday 9/6 at Houston
System Matches: FADE ARIZONA (+136 at HOU)

CHICAGO CUBS      
Momentum after series vs. PITTSBURGH: 21-9 (70%) +11.76 units, ROI: 39.2% 
Next betting opportunity: Friday 9/6 vs. NY Yankees
System Matches: PLAY CHICAGO CUBS (+114 vs. NYY)

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