The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Monday, September 9, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

 

Top MLB Resources:

Trend: ATL more UNDER at HOME (21-47 O/U)

System Match: PLAY UNDER the total in CIN-ATL (o/u at 8.5)

“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game

Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored 9 runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1664-1565 (51.5%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -205.53 units. This represents a R.O.I. of -6.4%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.

System Matches (FADE): MIAMI (+215 at PIT)

Trend: Carlos Rodon not good in -185 to -210 favorite line range, going 1-10 (-18.20 units) in L5 seasons

System Match: FADE NY YANKEES (-185 vs KC)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the HANDLE was on the HOME side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of last season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 164-66 (71.3%) for +32.84 UNITS and a ROI of +14.3%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 25%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in a MLB game for the rest of this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.

System Matches (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-205 vs TB)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

To summarize the first half of 2024 season findings, the data sample contained 1449 games, and for the most part, it can be concluded that majority bettors again slowly dwindled their bankrolls over the course of the first 3-1/2 months, losing at least 2.7% in all categories. However, as you can see, they were noticeably improved over the full 2023 season in five of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 first-half results:

–  Majority handle on sides: 792-628 (55.8%), -66.71 units – ROI -4.7% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
–  Majority number of bets on sides: 823-612 (57.4%), -61.77 units – ROI -4.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
–  Majority handle on run lines: 717-711 (50.2%). -83.92 units, ROI -5.9% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
–  Majority number of bets on run lines: 661-777 (46%). -45.98 units – ROI -3.2% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
–  Majority handle on totals: 689-688 (50%). -67.8 units – ROI -4.9% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
–   Majority number of BETS on totals: 692-662 (51.1%), -36.2 units, ROI -2.7% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%)

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -5% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the HANDLE was on the HOME side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of last season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 164-66 (71.3%) for +32.84 UNITS and a ROI of +14.3%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 25%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in a MLB game for the rest of this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.

System Matches (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-205 vs TB)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority BETS groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not TOO MANY of them hop on a side since the beginning of last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of BETS landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 352-297 (54.2%) for +14.32 UNITS and a ROI of 2.2%. This isn’t the rate of return that professional bettor looking for, but it is a very solid number to maintain over the course of 1-1/2 baseball seasons and 649 games.

System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY): NONE YET TODAY

DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as Majority HANDLE bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy ROAD FAVORITES of -200 or higher. This group is 80-51 (61.1%) for -40.05 UNITS and a ROI of -30.6%. This is a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly.

System Matches (FADE): CLEVELAND (-250 at CWS)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority HANDLE bettors have been at their worst overall in INTERLEAGUE GAMES since the start of 2023, going 595-505 (54.1%) for -119.1 UNITS and a ROI of -10.8%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.

System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA, NY METS, LA DODGERS

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a distinct up & down pattern of performance for majority HANDLE bettors by month since the beginning of last season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%, June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to a consistent -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.

1. Majority HANDLE bettors in SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER games have gone just 244-215 (53.2%) for -76.5 units & a ROI of -16.7% since the start of the ’23 season.

System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS THIS MONTH

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

FADE better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%

– In games of the ’23 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an R.O.I. of -30.5%! So far in ’24, these teams are again losing money, 111-61 for -25.22 units and a ROI of -14.7%.

System Matches (FADE): LA DODGERS (-192 vs CHC)

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent

–  A ’23 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The R.O.I. on this angle settled at +4.4% ROI last year. As of 9/8, the record of this angle in 2024 is in negative territory at 99-40 for -10.44 units (4 huge losses this past week).

System Matches (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-250 at CWS)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long

– A frequent and profitable system in the ‘23 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The R.O.I. of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. So far in the ’24 season, these teams have produced a 318-389 record, for -22.21 units (ROI -3.1%). This is below standards historically for me but I am nowhere near ready to abandon it.

System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+215 at PIT), BALTIMORE (+105 at BOS), LA ANGELS (+154 at MIN), TAMPA BAY (+170 at PHI)

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely

– Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 284-307 record, for +5.03 units (ROI 0.9%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.

System Matches (PLAY): BALTIMORE (+105 at BOS)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks

–  In 2023, I found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On 2-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, a R.O.I. of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The R.O.I. on that system finished at -7.6%. For ’24 so far, these 2-game teams have gone 166-207 for -42.56 units (-11.4% ROI). The 3-game teams are 82-85 for -2.75 units (-1.6% ROI).

System Matches: 3+ games – FADE KANSAS CITY (+154 at NYY)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game

Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored 9 runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1664-1565 (51.5%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -205.53 units. This represents a R.O.I. of -6.4%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.

System Matches (FADE): MIAMI (+215 at PIT)

ROAD TEAMS that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing

You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored 2 runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1581-2021 (43.9%) for -175.88 units and a R.O.I. of -4.9% since the start of the 2019 season.

System Matches (FADE ALL): TAMPA BAY (+170 at PHI), BALTIMORE (+105 at BOS), NY METS (-118 at TOR), KANSAS CITY (+154 at NYY), CLEVELAND (-225 at CWS)

HOME TEAMS that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing

Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored 5 runs or more are winning more often than not at 3360-2950 (53.2%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -452.69 units and a R.O.I. of -7.2%.

System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (-265 vs MIA), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+185 vs CLE)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Winning Streak Betting System #5:

Teams that have won their last four games but are playing on the road as large underdogs (+140 or more) have struggled, going 23-51 (-7.71 units, ROI: -10.4%) in their L74 tries.

System Matches (FADE): KANSAS CITY (+154 at NYY)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:

System Matches: MIAMI +215 (+45 diff), LA ANGELS +154 (+17 diff), TAMPA BAY +170 (+40 diff)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:

System Matches: NONE TODAY

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:

System Matches: BAL-BOS OVER 9.5 (+0.5)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:

System Matches: NYM-TOR UNDER 9 (-0.7)

MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.

(951) MIAMI (54-89) at (952) PITTSBURGH (67-76)

Trend: MIA not as good at NIGHT (27-57, -22.30 units)

System Match: FADE MIAMI (+215 at PIT)

(953) CINCINNATI (69-75) at (954) ATLANTA (78-65)

Trend: ATL more UNDER at HOME (21-47 O/U)

System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)

(955) CHICAGO-NL (73-70) at (956) LOS ANGELES-NL (86-57)

Trend: LAD more OVER vs RH starters (55-38 O/U)

System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 9.5)

(959) BALTIMORE (82-62) at (960) BOSTON (72-71)

Trend: BOS worse vs LH starters (16-24, -11.27 units)

System Match: FADE BOSTON (-125 vs BOS)

(961) LOS ANGELES-AL (59-84) at (962) MINNESOTA (76-67)

Trend: LAA bad vs AL Central/East (17-38, -16.01 units)

System Match: FADE LA ANGELS (+154 at MIN)

(963) CLEVELAND (81-62) at (964) CHICAGO-AL (33-111)

Trend: CWS slight UNDER at HOME (29-40 O/U)

System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)

(965) TAMPA BAY (71-72) at (966) PHILADELPHIA (85-58)

Trend: TB slightly better vs NL teams (26-17, +6.75 units)

System Match: PLAY TAMPA BAY (+170 at PHI)

None today.

MLB Pitcher Situational Trend Spots

The following situational trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the L5 years.

(957) KANSAS CITY (79-65) at (958) NEW YORK-AL (82-61)

Trend: Carlos Rodon not good in -185 to -210 favorite line range, going 1-10 (-18.20 units) in L5 seasons

System Match: FADE NY YANKEES (-185 vs KC)

(967) NEW YORK-NL (78-65) at (968) TORONTO (68-76)

Trend: Paul Blackburn is 7-16 (-7.75 units) vs teams with a winning pct between 45-55% in L5 seasons

System Match: FADE NY METS (-120 at TOR)

Trend: Chris Bassitt is 13-5 (+6.87 units) vs NL East opponents in L5 seasons

System Match: PLAY TORONTO (+100 vs NYM)

Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one Tuesday 9/10)

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