MLB Trade Deadline 2024 Recap:
The MLB Trade Deadline saw a flurry of activity, with a nice, prolonged ramp up to the big day and then a bunch of trades as the 6 p.m. hour approached. Every trade will materially impact a team in one way or another, but the betting impact of the trades won’t be quite as clear for some deals as it will be for others.
Let’s do an MLB Trade Deadline recap of the winners and losers and then some trades that I think could have some betting impact, both the obvious ones and the not-so-obvious ones.
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MLB Trade Deadline Winners
Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles, +750 to win the World Series and +360 to win the AL per DraftKings, filled multiple needs during the trade frenzy. They picked up bullpen help in advance of the deadline with Seranthony Dominguez and got a strong middle-of-the-rotation starter in Zach Eflin. They also got another starter in left-hander Trevor Rogers, which many viewed as an overpayment for Kyle Stowers and Connor Norby, but this is a team trading from a position of strength because of a young, well-defined core of position players.
With Kyle Bradish down, Eflin, who has a 4.11 ERA, but shows a lot of positive regression signs with a 3.47 xERA and a 3.63 FIP, and Rogers, who has a 3.17 ERA over his last nine starts, lengthen this rotation in a big way.
Baltimore is playing for a bye in the Wild Card Round and needed depth for a seven-game series. They got it, including another good bullpen arm in Gregory Soto right at the final moments of the deadline.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The rich got richer, as the Dodgers landed the top prize among rental pitchers in Jack Flaherty. The Burbank native gets a chance to pitch close to home and the World Series (+300) and NL (+160) favorites bolstered a banged-up rotation. For a rotation that was using Justin Wrobleski and River Ryan due to injury, Flaherty’s 2.95 ERA, 2.95 xERA, and 3.11 FIP are quite an addition.
They also gave the bench a lift by reuniting with Amed Rosario and trading for Kevin Kiermaier. Rosario helps against lefties and Kiermaier really helps in the field. A team like the Dodgers isn’t looking for an overhaul. They’re looking for subtle upgrades. Subtle upgrades like Michael Kopech, who has a 4.74 ERA, but a 3.92 xERA and now upgrades defensively and with a much better organization when it comes to pitcher development.
Tommy Edman hasn’t played yet this season, but he’s nearing a return and grades out as an elite defender with some speed and a little bit of power. Edman is a much better version of Nick Ahmed. Also, while not technically a Trade Deadline acquisition, Mookie Betts is nearing a return to batting practice and he should be back in August.
MLB Trade Deadline Losers
Minnesota Twins
Twins ownership is crying poor and the team was only able to add Trevor Richards while in striking distance of a vulnerable Guardians bunch. Richards is a terrific reliever and the Twins bullpen has been leaking oil of late, but the lineup needed some help and protection with oft-injured Byron Buxton and Royce Lewis seemingly on borrowed time every time they take the field.
Carlos Correa’s plantar fasciitis is an ongoing problem and a risk that the Twins were willing to embrace, but it has, indeed, become a problem. You could argue that the Twins didn’t need a ton, given that they have the fourth-best record in the AL, but they’ve won one playoff series since 2002 and, at some point, you have to go for it.
For a team sitting 16/1 to win the World Series and +245 in the division, you would think a little urgency would creep in.
New York Mets
Jesse Winker is a fine player and is having a really nice bounce back season after a dismal 2023 campaign, but we find the Mets trying to use chewed bubble gum and tongue depressors to create a rotation. Sean Manaea and Luis Severino have exceeded expectations, but with Christian Scott out for the foreseeable future and Kodai Senga out for the rest of the regular season, Paul Blackburn doesn’t do it for me.
Senga coming back would have provided a big boost to a team that controls its own destiny. In a lot of ways, the Diamondbacks doing what they did last season hurts a lot of fringe contenders because I think it creates a false sense of security about their chances and the high variance level of the playoffs. The Phillies and Dodgers are well ahead of everybody else and the Mets passed on a chance to get some prospects for Pete Alonso, Severino, and potentially others by going for it.
Even though the Mets have played better for a while now, the Padres and Diamondbacks both got better and the Braves did as well. I’m not sure the Mets are that much better than they were a week ago and neither does the betting market at 45/1 to win it all and just -105 Yes to make the playoffs.
The Mets and Padres were tied by win percentage as of Tuesday night and the Padres were -170 Yes to make the playoffs. The Diamondbacks are -115 Yes and the Braves are -600 Yes. I think the Mets miscalculated and missed out on a chance to infuse some prospect talent for new President of Baseball Operations David Stearns to build around.
MLB Trade Deadline Betting Impact
Texas Rangers
On the surface, the Rangers didn’t do anything. They brought in LHRP Andrew Chafin and backup catcher Carson Kelly. However, by not selling, I think they made a big statement and an 80/1 ticket on them to win the World Series (or +450 to make the playoffs) is not a bad investment.
Josh Jung returned from the IL on Monday and he is a very valuable player on both sides of the ball. He’s a good defender at 3B and a quality hitter. Tyler Mahle is five starts into his rehab and is working his way back into the rotation. Jacob deGrom is throwing bullpens. Max Scherzer was not dealt and neither was Nathan Eovaldi, whose 2025 option vests with 44 more innings.
Texas is only 3.5 games back. The Mariners brought in Randy Arozarena, Justin Turner, and some bullpen help, but I think they could’ve done more. The Astros really didn’t do much outside of the slumping Yusei Kikuchi.
I think by not doing anything, the Rangers really improved their standing. For what it’s worth, Chafin is a good reliever.
San Diego Padres
I really like the Padres right now. AJ Preller has shredded the minor league system in what may very well be a make-or-break pennant push for him. I liked the Padres to begin with, but they have effectively shortened games now with their bullpen acquisitions. This was a good bullpen anyway that was a bit unlucky to be 19th in ERA at 4.17, but ranked ninth in FIP.
Tanner Scott was one of the best available relievers with a 1.18 ERA and a 2.93 xERA. Jason Adam of the Rays has a 2.49 ERA with a 3.42 xERA. Brian Hoeing has a 7.88 ERA in 37.2 innings as a starter, but a much better 4.28 ERA in 75.2 innings as a reliever. Martin Perez will start for now and swallow some innings, but Joe Musgrove should be a few weeks from returning.
The Padres have so much strikeout upside in the pen that any lead should be very safe. I think -170 to make the playoffs is a bargain and 30/1 to win the World Series is not a crazy price.
