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MLB value plays for Friday, June 2
Greg Peterson posts his daily handicapped MLB lines for every game every day. Based on his lines vs. the actual lines, here is where Peterson sees value on today’s menu. Peterson also does a daily podcast, The Baseball Betting Show, on which he breaks down every game every day.
Cardinals vs. Pirates Total 9.5. Greg’s Total 8.8.
The Pittsburgh Pirates scored the fewest runs per game of any National League team in May while the Cardinals’ run production goes from 5.5 runs per game at home to 4.1 runs per game on the road. Cardinals starter Jack Flaherty also appears to be improving with three runs or fewer allowed in his last four starts. He has a road ERA of 3.82 compared to 6.12 at home.
Diamondbacks starter Merrill Kelly has allowed two earned runs or fewer in five of his last six starts and has performed much better during his career at home than on the road. He has a 3.39 ERA at home with 0.9 home runs per nine innings allowed compared to a 4.34 road ERA with 1.4 home runs per nine innings allowed. The Braves have a 3.00 collective road ERA, which leads all 30 MLB teams. Braves starter Charlie Morton has a 2.63 ERA with one home run allowed across 24 innings in his last four road starts. The Diamondbacks’ offense also generated less power at home with just one home run per game at home compared to 1.3 home runs per game on the road.
Angels vs. Astros Total 8. Greg’s Total 7.1.
Angels starter Shohei Ohtani leads qualifying American League starters in fewest hits allowed per nine innings and strikeouts per nine innings with a 2.91 ERA. Astros starter Framber Valdez is the ace of an Astros team that owns the best ERA in the league. Valdez has a 2.38 ERA with 1.9 walks and 9.6 strikeouts per nine innings.
Guardians vs. Twins (-130). Greg’s Line: Twins -161.
The Guardians are last in the league in home runs, which might not be enough support for starting pitcher Aaron Civale who is making his first start since April 7. Bailey Ober has allowed three runs or fewer in six of his seven starts this season and is backed up by an offense that is eighth in the league in runs per game at home and sixth in home runs per game at home.
