MLB value plays for Saturday, June 17
Greg Peterson posts his daily handicapped MLB lines for every game every day. Based on his lines vs. the actual lines, here is where Peterson sees value on today’s menu. Peterson also does a daily podcast, The Baseball Betting Show, on which he breaks down every game every day.
Marlins vs. Nationals Total 9. Greg’s Total 8.6.
The Marlins are last in the National League in runs per game while the Nationals are averaging the second-fewest runs per game at home among National League teams. Marlins starter Braxton Garrett has been at his best on the road with a 2.29 ERA away from home compared to a 6.35 ERA at home.
Reds vs. Astros (-125). Greg’s Line: Astros -172.
Since the start of May, Reds starter Hunter Greene has struggled with at least three runs allowed in four of his seven starts with a 4.81 ERA and 3.7 walks per nine innings allowed in that span. Astros starter Brandon Bielak faces a Reds lineup averaging the second-fewest home runs per game of any MLB team on the road this season. Bielak enters with a 2.45 ERA at home compared to a 4.82 ERA on the road. The Astros back up Bielak with a bullpen that is third in the league in ERA.
Guardians vs. Diamondbacks Total 8.5. Greg’s Total 9.1.
Both starting pitchers have underlying numbers that indicate regression is coming with Tommy Henry posting a 4.86 ERA for the Diamondbacks. Henry has a 5.62 fielding independent with just 5.9 strikeouts to 3.6 walks per nine innings with 10 total runs allowed across his past two starts. Guardians starter Shane Bieber has seen his strikeout per nine innings rate go from 14.2 in his Cy Young Award season of 2020 down to 6.6 this season with a 3.29 ERA but a 3.83 fielding independent. He has to face a Diamondbacks lineup that is second in the National League in home batting average.
