MLB value plays for Sunday, June 11
Greg Peterson posts his daily handicapped MLB lines for every game every day. Based on his lines vs. the actual lines, here is where Peterson sees value on today’s menu. Peterson also does a daily podcast, The Baseball Betting Show, on which he breaks down every game every day.
Red Sox vs. Yankees Total 9. Greg’s Total 8.3.
The Red Sox have the biggest split in home and road batting average among MLB teams, hitting .288 at home compared to .229 on the road. Yankees starter Clarke Schmidt has pitched much better of late, allowing three runs or fewer in six of his last seven starts while being backed up by the league’s top bullpen in ERA. The Yankees are also without Aaron Judge and enter Sunday having scored four runs or fewer in five of their last six games.
Astros vs. Guardians (-135). Greg’s Line: Astros +113.
The brand name of Shane Bieber causes inflation on the Guardians when he starts as Bieber is averaging just 6.1 strikeouts per nine innings with a 3.57 ERA, a far cry from the 1.63 ERA and 14.2 strikeouts per nine innings he had when he won the 2020 Cy Young Award. The Guardians back him up with the league’s second-lowest scoring offense at home with 3.4 runs per game and are last in home runs.
Diamondbacks vs. Tigers Total 8. Greg’s Total 7.3.
The Tigers enter having scored three runs or fewer in seven of their last eight games and face a starter in Zac Gallen that leads qualifying National League starters with a 2.22 fielding independent. He also has a 5.2 strikeout-to-walk rate. The Tigers are last in the league in batting average and runs per game while ranking 12th in bullpen ERA.