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MLB value plays for Sunday, June 25
Greg Peterson posts his daily handicapped MLB lines for every game every day. Based on his lines vs. the actual lines, here is where Peterson sees value on today’s menu. Peterson also does a daily podcast, The Baseball Betting Show, on which he breaks down every game every day.
Diamondbacks vs. Giants (-130). Greg’s Line: Giants -154.
The Giants have a sub-2.00 bullpen ERA the past 45 days and a starter in Anthony DeSclafani whose 4.38 is a bit misleading. He has allowed just one home run and 1.9 walks per nine innings for a 3.84 fielding independent. Diamondbacks starter Ryne Nelson is getting just 6.1 strikeouts with 3.1 walks allowed per nine innings. He enters having allowed at least three runs in four of his past five starts with five innings or fewer completed in all but one of those starts.
Rangers vs. Yankees Total 7.5. Greg’s Total 6.9.
The Yankees have scored four runs or fewer in 14 of their 17 games since Aaron Judge was injured earlier in the month against the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Yankees lineup faces a starter in Nathan Eovaldi who has allowed 15 total runs across his past 10 starts. The Yankees counter with Gerrit Cole, who’s allowed two runs or fewer in four straight starts, along with the league’s top bullpen in terms of ERA.
Twins vs. Tigers Total 8. Greg’s Total 8.6.
Tigers starter Michael Lorenzen has done a good job of lowering his walks per nine innings rate from four last season to 2.3 this season. But he still has a 4.00 ERA and a 4.41 fielding independent, giving up 1.3 home runs per nine innings and getting only 6.8 strikeouts per nine innings. Twins starter Bailey Ober enters having allowed five home runs across his past three starts. He sports a fielding independent of 3.84, which is more than a full point above his 2.83 ERA.
