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MLB value plays for Thursday, June 29
Greg Peterson posts his daily handicapped MLB lines for every game every day. Based on his lines vs. the actual lines, here is where Peterson sees value on today’s menu. Peterson also does a daily podcast, The Baseball Betting Show, on which he breaks down every game every day.
Padres vs. Pirates Total 8.5. Greg’s Total 7.7.
The Pirates average the fewest runs per game of any National League team since the start of May, They face former Pirates starter Joe Musgrove who has a 1.98 ERA with one home run allowed across 36 1/3 innings in his last six starts. The Padres have had a tough time generating offense, ranking 14th among the 15 National League teams in batting average. They also have the top bullpen ERA in the National League.
Dodgers vs. Rockies Total 12.5. Greg’s Total 13.2.
While Dodgers starter Emmet Sheehan has allowed just two runs across 12 innings in his first two career starts, both of those runs were off of home runs, and Sheehan has allowed lots of contact. Sheehan’s ERA is 1.50, and his fielding independent is 5.26 with 5.3 strikeouts to three walks per nine innings this season. He’s backed up by a Dodgers lineup that is fourth in the league in runs per game and second in home runs. Both teams are in the bottom six in bullpen ERA and Rockies starter Chase Anderson enters with a 5.79 ERA, giving up 2.4 home runs per nine innings.
Astros vs. Cardinals (-115). Greg’s Line Astros -121.
Cardinals starter Adam Wainwright has allowed at least three runs in all nine of his starts this season with a career-low 4.6 strikeouts per nine innings. Astros starter JP France has been at his best on the road with a 2.40 ERA on the road compared to a 5.01 ERA at home and is backed up by the better bullpen. The Cardinals are 19th in the league in bullpen ERA while the Astros are seventh in this category. The Cardinals are just 15-23 at home this season.
