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MLB value plays for Tuesday, June 20
Greg Peterson posts his daily handicapped MLB lines for every game every day. Based on his lines vs. the actual lines, here is where Peterson sees value on today’s menu. Peterson also does a daily podcast, The Baseball Betting Show, on which he breaks down every game every day.
Braves (-1.5, +120) vs. Phillies. Greg’s Run Line: Braves -1.5, -119.
Braves starter Spencer Strider leads the league in strikeouts and posts an ERA of 2.97, though he is coming off a rough stretch of allowing 13 runs in his past two starts. The Phillies do not have a player outside of Kyle Schwarber that has more than eight home runs this season, which has led to the Phillies being 17th in the league in runs per game. The Braves lead the National League in runs per game and all MLB teams in home runs.
Cubs vs. Pirates Total 8. Greg’s Total 8.7.
Cubs starter Marcus Stroman is number one among qualifying National League pitchers in ERA, but he is due for regression with a 2.45 ERA compared to a 3.43 fielding independent with a .191 opponents batting average. Both bullpens are 23rd or worse among the 30 MLB teams in ERA, and Pirates starter Johan Oviedo has a 5.44 ERA over the course of his last 10 starts.
Athletics vs. Guardians Total 9. Greg’s Total 8.2.
Since coming off the injured list, Guardians starter Aaron Civale has allowed just four runs in his past three starts across 14 1/3 innings and is facing an Athletics lineup that is last in the league in runs per game with 3.5. The Guardians are last in the league in home runs, and their 3.4 runs per game at home are the second-fewest in the league.
Dodgers vs. Angels Total 9. Greg’s Total 8.2.
Clayton Kershaw has turned back time with four total runs allowed across his last three starts. He has a 2.95 ERA for the season with 10.4 strikeouts per nine innings. While the surface numbers of Angels starter Reid Detmers look far from terrific with a 1-5 record and 4.48 ERA, he owns a 3.48 fielding independent with 11 strikeouts per nine innings. The Angels’ bullpen has also been significantly better this season, ranking sixth in the league in ERA.
