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MLB value plays for Wednesday, June 28
Greg Peterson posts his daily handicapped MLB lines for every game every day. Based on his lines vs. the actual lines, here is where Peterson sees value on today’s menu. Peterson also does a daily podcast, The Baseball Betting Show, on which he breaks down every game every day.
Padres vs. Pirates Total 8.5. Greg’s Total 8.2.
The Pirates have scored four runs or fewer in 38 of their last 48 games. They face Blake Snell, who enters with a 2.68 road ERA this season and just two runs allowed across his last six starts. Pirates starter Mitch Keller has plenty of success at home this season, posting a 2.78 ERA with less than a home run per nine innings allowed. He faces a Padres lineup that is second-worst in the National League in batting average.
Phillies (-120) vs. Cubs. Greg’s Line: Cubs -107.
Phillies starter Aaron Nola enters having been in a rough stretch with at least three runs allowed in five of his last six starts. Throughout his career, Nola has large home and road splits, posting a career 3.20 ERA at home compared to a 4.14 road ERA. Cubs starter Drew Smyly has provided consistency, allowing three runs or fewer in 12 of his last 14 starts. He has done just enough to get the team to victory, with the Cubs 9-5 in those 14 starts.
Astros vs. Cardinals (-120). Greg’s Line: Astros -116.
Astros starter Cristian Javier has allowed two runs or fewer in five of his last seven starts. He is backed up by the superior bullpen with the Astros eighth in the league in bullpen ERA while the Cardinals are 18th. Cardinals starter Miles Mikolas has been worse at home than on the road, posting a 4.93 ERA despite allowing just 0.6 home runs per nine innings, but he allows lots of contact with just 6.3 strikeouts per nine innings.
