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MLB value plays for Wednesday, June 7
Greg Peterson posts his daily handicapped MLB lines for every game every day. Based on his lines vs. the actual lines, here is where Peterson sees value on today’s menu. Peterson also does a daily podcast, The Baseball Betting Show, on which he breaks down every game every day.
Astros vs. Blue Jays (-150). Greg’s Line: Astros +112.
Blue Jays starter Chris Bassitt has a 3.41 ERA, but he also has a 4.80 FIP and has been very fortunate on balls in play with opponents hitting .214 on balls in play this season, way lower than Bassitt’s career .274 mark. The Astros give Ronel Blanco his second start of the season after giving up two runs in 5 1/3 innings against the Los Angeles Angels. He had a 0.56 ERA at the minor league level in four appearances to build him up to a starting role and will likely not have to face Matt Chapman, who’s dealing with a toe injury.
Athletics vs. Pirates (-1.5, +110). Greg’s Line Pirates -1.5, +110.
Even with Athletics starter Hogan Harris going five innings in each of his last two appearances with just two runs allowed, the team lost by three or more runs in both appearances due to a bullpen that is last in the league in ERA. The Athletics are also last in the league in both batting average and runs per game and have lost 39 of their 63 this season by multiple runs.
Royals vs. Marlins (-1.5, +110). Greg Line: Marlins -1.5, -113.
The Royals are 0-12 in starter Jordan Lyles starts this season with 11 of those losses by multiple runs. Lyles has allowed at least four runs in 10 of his last 11 starts and is backed by a bullpen with the second-worst ERA in the league. The Royals lineup is also last in the league in on-base percentage.
Cubs vs. Angels (-130). Greg’s Line Angels -169
Angels starter Jaime Barria has been terrific in both the role of starter and reliever, posting a 1.55 ERA with nine strikeouts and 0.5 home runs per nine innings allowed. He is facing a Cubs lineup that over the past 30 days is last in the National League in runs per game. The Cubs also have issues on the pitching side with starter Jameson Taillon posting a 7.05 ERA and .292 opponents batting average this season. He’s backed up by a bullpen that is 25 among the 30 MLB teams in ERA.
