MLB Win Total Picks and Predictions
Baseball can be one of the more difficult sports to bet for many people. The ebbs and flows of 162 games with lineup changes in a high variance sport makes the summer months a grind for many bettors. Last year was my first year attacking baseball at the level I bet on hockey, and I saw quite a few similarities. Like a hot goaltender in hockey, a pitcher can single-handedly propel a team to victory on any day. Conversely, it can be very difficult to overcome a shaky outing. My season ended in the black with a high volume, low bet amount, mainly plus money-only plays, but the most profitable category of bets was season win totals. You can attack the market both preseason and in-season, I bet the A’s under about 10 times last year, to make a profitable portfolio. Right now, I’ve got two MLB win total bets in pocket so let’s give into those.
Kansas City Royals, o/u 73.5 wins
On the surface some may say this number looks high, the Royals did go 56-106 last year in the awful AL Central, but this is not the same Royals team as last year, specifically on the mound. The off-season additions of Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha, combined with dark horse Cy Young candidate Cole Ragans gives them a decent top end of the rotation. Ragans, in particular, is intriguing. He’s being comped to a left-handed Jacob DeGrom in camp with overpowering stuff. After starting last year in Texas, the Royals traded for him at the midseason mark and moved him from the bullpen to a starter. He responded by cutting his ERA by nearly two runs and had a handful of dominant outings.
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The big news in the offseason was the extension of Bobby Witt Jr, who will look to take another step forward in his third MLB campaign. He’s got MVP-level talent with pop and speed to accompany his plate discipline. Last year, he hit 30 dingers while stealing 49 bases and improved his average by over .020 to .276. Even with no step forward, he’s one of the top players in the AL. Just as importantly, they added two versatile bats in Adam Frazier and Hunter Renfroe, who can play multiple positions.
This division is also an absolute mess. The Tigers and White Sox stink and the Guardians and Twins did not make any moves that strike fear into opposing organizations. I’ll take the Over on the Royals who feel like this years Reds. I played them to win the AL Central at +850 as well.
MLB Win Total Pick: Over 73.5 wins
Cincinnati Reds, o/u 82.5 wins
Speaking of those Reds, why don’t we dive into how a nice, overachieving season did not scratch the surface of the talent the Reds possess? When looking back on last year’s 82-80 season, some would say it was magical with Elly De La Cruz coming up and sparking the team or Spencer Steer becoming a household name. I’m on the opposite side of the fence. That was a missed opportunity. They should have been better. They got nothing out of Nick Lodolo and little from Hunter Greene due to injuries, who were both sleeper Cy Young candidates in Spring Training. Hunter Greene is healthy heading into this season and has looked good in Spring Training. Nick Lodolo is expected to be ready by the start of the regular season. Andrew Abbott should also take a step forward after pitching well when called up before cooling off late in the season.
This Reds team also benefits from playing in the NL Central, which should be down again this year. The Brewers traded away Corbin. The Cards tried to re-vamp their rotation but are already battling injuries. The Pirates look like they will be horrible again, and the Cubs are, well, basically the same Cubs. The Reds should be able to eclipse last year’s total with decent injury luck.
MLB Win Total Pick: Over 82.5 wins
