Best Bets on Today’s MLB Player Props Market
MLB Opening Day is finally here and VSiN has you covered with every way you can possibly bet on a baseball game. As always, Adam Burke will have daily best bets to give you some ideas of what to back when it comes to moneylines, run lines and totals. However, I’m tackling player props here, and I’m targeting Marcell Ozuna, Hunter Greene and Manny Machado on the first day of the MLB season. Keep reading to find out how I’m betting on each of them.
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MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on March 30
Here are our favorite MLB prop bets for Thursday, March 30:
Atlanta Braves (-240, 7.5) at Washington Nationals
Marcell Ozuna is the forgotten player on a loaded Braves team, and it certainly does seem like his time in Atlanta could come to an end somewhat soon. But for now, the 32-year-old is a valuable hitter in an elite offense, and today he has the luxury of going up against Patrick Corbin.
Corbin didn’t look completely awful in Spring Training this year. However, this is a guy that was 6-19 with a 6.31 ERA in 2022, and it’s hard to see him navigating this Atlanta lineup without any trouble. Last season, the Braves were fifth in MLB in wRC+ against left-handed pitching, and they scored 16 runs in the 14.1 innings that Corbin pitched against them. This is just an explosively bad matchup for Corbin right off the bat, and Ozuna should be able to get in on the action.
In his career, Ozuna’s batting average, on base percentage and slugging percentage are all higher against lefty pitching. He sees the ball a lot better against southpaws, and it’s hard to lay off him at these odds. In this lineup, he’s going to have a few chances to cash in and bring somebody home — or he can go yard and do it himself.
Bet: Ozuna Over 0.5 RBIs (+185)
Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds (-133, 8)
Hunter Greene struck out at least eight batters in each of his final five starts of the 2022 MLB season. The 23-year-old averaged 1.3 strikeouts per inning in his first year as a starter in the bigs, and he now gets the ball on Opening Day. There isn’t much to be excited about with this Cincinnati team, but Greene’s live arm and otherworldly potential will make him a fun player to track this year. And we’re turning to him with our first MLB player props story of the season.
Greene’s strikeout total for today is only 7.5, even though he’s facing a lousy Pirates lineup. Last season, the Pirates had the second-highest strikeout percentage in baseball at 25.6%. They also struck out more than all but two teams in MLB, and their problems at the plate existed against both righty and lefty pitching.
Greene also happened to see the Pirates twice last season and he averaged 9.5 strikeouts per game over those two starts. There’s something of a concern about how many pitches the 23-year-old will throw in his first start of the year, but this number still seems a little too low.
Bet: Greene Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+106)
Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres (-210, 7)
The Padres are taking on the Rockies in their first game of the season, which means they’ll see German Marquez tonight. Unfortunately, this game won’t be played inside the hitter-friendly confines of Coors Field. But that doesn’t mean San Diego superstar Manny Machado won’t come through at the plate.
In Machado’s 27 career at-bats against Marquez, the slugger has 11 hits, a double and a homer. A .407 batting average in a sample size that isn’t necessarily small is hard to ignore, and it just isn’t hard to envision a scenario in which Machado has either multiple hits or just one extra base hit. That makes it hard to lay off his over on total bases, especially at plus-money odds.
Last season, Machado hit .313 with 32 doubles and 20 homers against right-handed pitching. He also batted .317 with 23 doubles and 24 homers in night games. With that said, the stars are aligned for Machado to come through with a big performance under the lights tonight.
Bet: Machado Over 1.5 Total Bases (+130)
Did you know that you can parlay these three picks together at +1250 odds? Try out our VSiN Parlay Calculator HERE!
