New York Mets 2024 preview
There’s “disappointing” and then there’s whatever adjective we’d use to describe the 2023 New York Mets. Things got so bad that owner Steven Cohen actually shed payroll at the Trade Deadline after treating money as if it were no option for the previous year and half. The Mets finished 75-87, 26 games worse than they finished the previous season when they tied the Braves for first place in the NL East and subsequently lost in the NL Wild Card.
We’re talking about two winning seasons since 2016 and a team that hasn’t won a playoff series since 2015. A team that finished 29 games out of first place last season – the biggest gap between the Mets and the division winner since 2003. We’re talking about a team that traded Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer at the Trade Deadline.
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We’re talking about a team that went shopping for its starting rotation at Big Lots instead of Bloomingdale’s. A team that paid over $55 million in dead money to make Verlander and Scherzer go away. A team that still has a payroll over $300 million for the 2024 season to have a season win total line right around .500. There are five players making over $20 million this season and six more making over $10 million.
Oh, yeah, and their best starting pitcher is out until at least early May and potentially longer. There is a new leader in the clubhouse and some new coaches with a new message, but the question is whether or not this is the same old Mets.
2024 New York Mets Odds
(odds from DraftKings as of Mar. 20)
World Series: +5500
NL Pennant: +2800
NL East: +1200
Win Total: 81.5 (-110/-110)
Make Playoffs: Yes +190 / No -225
New York Mets Preview: Offense
Most of the aforementioned $20 million men are on the offensive side. Francisco Lindor leads the way at $34.1M for this season, with Starling Marte, Pete Alonso, and Brandon Nimmo as the others. Alonso is a free agent at season’s end and Marte has two years left on his deal, so it could be another July sell-off in Queens.
I could point to a lot of things that went wrong last season for the Mets. The offense had a lot of them, as this group posted a 101 wRC+, so basically a league average mark and they were exactly 15th in that department. I will grant that the Mets got a little unlucky. Their .275 BABIP was the second-lowest in baseball. Only the Yankees had a lower BABIP at .266. The Mets only struck out 22% of the time, which ranked 11th, but they finished 25th in batting average.
From a contact quality standpoint, they were 15th in Hard Hit% and 13th in Barrel%, so that tells me that they should have had more base hits than they had. Their batted ball distribution wasn’t crazy and they ranked around the middle of the league in Pull%. A Statcast search shows that the Mets batted .238, but should have only climbed to .243 based on the quality of their contact and the direction of their batted balls. That xBA ranked 19th.
I can’t really explain what went wrong in that regard, I just know that the stats looked a bit off to me and I’ll be looking for a bit of a bump out of this offense. I do think there’s a chance that a guy like Jeff McNeil doesn’t rebound, given that he only had a 27% Hard Hit% and only had seven barrels with a launch angle that should encourage more line drives and fly balls. He saw a big spike in pop ups last season, so while he had a low K%, pop ups are basically strikeouts.
But, I do think a guy like Marte could bounce back to some degree. That being said, he posted wRC+ marks of 112, 118, 108, 132, and 134 over the five previous seasons and had a 76 wRC+ last year. The projection systems consider him about a league average hitter and he is now 35, so I think that’s a bit of an indication of the aging curve catching up to him. He did have a .402 xSLG compared to a .324 actual SLG. I think he’ll be better than the projection systems suggest, but I cannot see a repeat of his two seasons being greater than 30% above league average.
Lindor is what he is and I don’t see any growth potential in his bat. He’s still going to be a 5 or 6-win player with his defense and what he provides offensively at a premier position, but he’s another guy that the projection systems are light on. They’re also light on Nimmo, who is now on the wrong side of 30, but just had his best season by Hard Hit% and Barrel%. If those gains are legit, I fully expect him to be as good or better than he was last season.
They are more optimistic on Alonso, though, but he’ll be the most sought-after bat at the Trade Deadline if he is indeed made available. Judging by the odds and projections for the Mets, a 40+ HR guy probably will be available, as he won’t be re-signing with New York in all likelihood and a rental hitter with his power is a rare commodity on the market.
If the Mets are going to overperform this season, it will be because of two guys – Francisco Alvarez and Brett Baty. Both guys had impressive track records in the minor leagues when they made it to the Majors. Baty struck out too much, but he did make pretty solid contact when he put the bat on the ball. Alvarez is a top-tier defensive catcher, so he has a high floor, but he also hit well in the minors. For a guy with a 44.7% Hard Hit% and a 12.5% Barrel%, his 97 wRC+ was definitely lower than I would have expected.
Jett Williams and Drew Gilbert are coming and could inject some life into the ballclub over the dog days of summer.
New York Mets Preview: Pitching
The offense better find a way to get it done because this pitching staff does not look good. Edwin Diaz returns to anchor the bullpen and I think that group will be just fine with Adam Ottavino and free agent acquisition Jorge Lopez.
But, man, this rotation could be really awful. The top returnee is Senga, who was tremendous with a 2.98 ERA and a 3.63 FIP over 166.1 innings of work. Senga actually got better as the season went along, which surprised me because the American game is way different than the Japanese game. Not only do hitters prioritize making contact more in Japan, but pitchers often pitch once a week and get five days rest. The Mets gave Senga extra days when they could, but injury attrition, bad performance, and trades ultimately made that hard.
Senga started a little slow, especially in the control department with 18 walks in 26 innings to start the season, but he held opponents under a .300 wOBA in four of the five months and a .300 wOBA in June. He actually had a 2.58 ERA in the second half with a .274 wOBA against. Most importantly, he was excellent within the game, as he actually got better by wOBA the second and third time through the order compared to the first.
Sadly, he was slowed by some discomfort in Spring Training and I hate when that happens to pitchers. Instead of building up throughout February and March, Senga now has to do it in April, when there’s more urgency and more risk for re-injury or simply bad performance. The Mets can ill-afford bad performance from Senga.
That’s because Jose Quintana is the default ace in his absence. He made 13 starts over 75.2 innings last season with a 3.57 ERA and a 3.52 FIP, but he’s 35 now with nearly 1,800 regular season innings on his arm. He had a velo drop last season that he worked around and a very high rate of contact. I give him credit because his 2018-21 were pretty rough, but his career has caught a second wind.
I guess the Mets feel like Sean Manaea can be an innings eater for them. He’ll play on the East Coast for the first time in his career after posting a 4.44 ERA with a 3.90 FIP for the Giants over 117.2 innings last season. He only made 10 starts, serving as a bulk reliever more often than not. He did have an outstanding second half with a 3.43 ERA and a .278 wOBA against, so the Mets will hope that’s repeatable.
They’ve got another pitch-to-contact guy in Adrian Houser in the rotation and are also hoping that Luis Severino has something left in the tank. Sevy had a 6.65 ERA with a 6.14 FIP in 89.1 innings last season. He’s also topped out at 102 innings since 2018. I’m about ready to give up on Tylor Megill, whose stuff, extension, and high velo just haven’t all come together yet. There’s also limited help coming from below.
New York Mets Player to Watch
C Francisco Alvarez
Alvarez was incredible in the crouch last season and he just turned 22 last November. He was +15.2 Framing Runs per FanGraphs and +7 Defensive Runs Saved. Unfortunately, he also allowed 99 stolen bases, as people ran at will on the Mets. Not all of that was his fault, as Mets pitchers were awful at holding runners. But, he did what he could to steal strikes for the staff.
It’s the bat that intrigues me, though. Among players with at least 400 plate appearances, Alvarez was 68th out of 212 hitters in Hard Hit% and 39th in Barrel%. He struck out a lot and he struck out a lot in the minor leagues as well, but he had a 13.6% BB%. As he learns the pitchers and gets more comfortable as a hitter, I presume he’ll walk more at the MLB level. That will cover up a low batting average with all the strikeouts, much like it did in the minors. He also hit 25 homers.
But, you can tell that the grind wore him down. He hit 17 of his 25 homers in the first half and batted .238. He hit .174 in the second half and his K% jumped up a bit. Last season was full of lessons and I think he’ll be better for them.
New York Mets Season Win Total Odds & Prediction
On paper, this does not look like the starting rotation of a team with a winning record. The Mets do not have a high ceiling this season based on the roster. I do think that the offense could find some minor improvements and Citi Field will help a largely pitch-to-contact starting pitcher corps.
I think the Mets, like so many teams that just spend frivolously, have a lot of guys on the wrong side of the aging and injury curves. There is a very realistic possibility that this team is not good at all. That Marte and McNeil don’t bounce back. That Alvarez and Baty don’t grow. That Lindor and Nimmo regress. That Diaz and Senga are the only really good pitchers on the roster.
You also have a first-time manager in Carlos Mendoza who was on Aaron Boone’s staff the last five seasons. I don’t know if he has the wherewithal to pull this team through the mud if necessary. The Mets may go over 81.5 wins, but their ceiling does not appear to be much higher than that and I believe that they are far more likely to come up well short of expectations than exceed them.
Pick: Under 81.5
Get all of our preseason coverage in the 2024 MLB Betting Guide.
