New York Mets 2025 preview
It is rare when a 26-year-old future Hall of Famer hits free agency, but that was precisely the case with Juan Soto. The New York Mets made their pitch, which included the largest free agent contract in MLB history. With that offer, second-year Team President David Stearns got his superstar to build around for the foreseeable future and the Mets got one of the five best players in baseball in the lineup.
Soto’s 15-year, $765 million started with a $75 million signing bonus and runs through 2039, with the slugger paid $46M annually over the final 10 seasons of the deal. There are bonuses and escalators in the deal as well, as owner Steven Cohen’s pursuit of a World Series has now reached a new level.
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Cohen purchased the Mets for $2.475 billion in 2020. He spent over $1 billion in free agents this offseason, as the Mets led the way with 29 signings. Many of them are minor league depth guys, but four new free agent pitchers are in the mix, plus the team came to a February agreement with Pete Alonso for another $54 million over two years and Sean Manaea in December for $75 million.
So, that’s a lot of money. And a lot of money buys a good team more often than not. The Mets were good last season, as they finished 89-73 and won both the Wild Card Round and NLDS before losing in six games to the eventual champion Dodgers in the NLCS. That was a far better outcome than what happened to the Mets in 2022 with 101 regular season wins, but only one in the best-of-three NL Wild Card series.
It is World Series or bust for Cohen with this Soto deal and some of the other large investments in the team. He’s clearly much closer on paper now than he was going into last season.
2025 New York Mets Odds
(odds from DraftKings as of Feb. 23)
World Series: +1200
NL Pennant: +700
NL East: +240
Win Total: 90.5 (-110/-110)
Make Playoffs: Yes -250 / No +205
New York Mets Preview: Offense
Despite the addition of Soto, the return of Alonso, and others like Francisco Lindor and Brandon Nimmo in the lineup, the Mets are the third choice to win the NL East based on the division odds and trail the Dodgers and Braves among NL teams in the World Series market. I’ll get to the reasons why in a little bit, but let’s talk about the offense first.
Adding Soto to what was a top-10 offense last season will make a big difference. The Mets posted a .320 wOBA and a 109 wRC+ and finished as one of six teams to hit at least 200 home runs. All four guys with at least 20 homers are back and now Soto, who hit a career-high 41 dingers last season, slots into a high spot in the order.
Soto has been on base at least 40.1% of the time in every season of his spectacular career. He’s got a career BB% of 18.8% with more walks than strikeouts for his career and in five of his seven seasons. The Mets finished seventh in runs scored last season and were ninth in plate appearances with a runner in scoring position. They actually had a 126 wRC+ in that split, which ranked second in baseball, as their .460 SLG was second to the Diamondbacks.
There is no year-to-year correlation in terms of RISP performance, but the Mets are likely to be among the league leaders in plate appearances with a guy like Soto following Lindor at the top of the batting order. Bringing back Alonso made a ton of sense, given his high SLG batting behind those two. Despite hitting 34 homers, Alonso only had 88 RBI. He only hit .215 with men on base and .232 with RISP. Positive regression in those two areas would be huge for the ceiling of this offense.
I think an under-discussed element of this lineup is that a guy like Soto moves everybody down a spot. So, you’re talking about a potential breakout candidate like Francisco Alvarez hitting in a bottom-three spot. Or a contact wizard like Jeff McNeil who can help turn the lineup over hitting eighth or ninth. You’re talking about not having to use a declining hitter like Starling Marte in the No. 2 (33 games) or No. 5 (30 games) anymore.
These are all positives for an offense that has the chance to be a top-five group this season.
New York Mets Preview: Pitching
This area of the ballclub is where most of the questions reside. The Mets finished 15th in ERA and 17th in FIP last season. Given that Senga was limited to one start, those aren’t overly disappointing numbers. What I find disappointing here, though, is that the Mets are taking some unnecessary gambles based on their position as a contender.
Manaea had his best season since 2021 and earned a contract extension as a result after posting a 3.47 ERA, 3.75 xERA, and a 3.83 FIP. The ERA and xERA were career-bests, which is generally not a repeatable skill for a pitcher in his 30s with the mileage and injury history that he has. Not to mention, he ran a .245 BABIP, the best of his career in a full season. Most projection systems have him on the wrong side of 4.00 in both ERA and FIP.
The Mets also found lightning in a bottle with both Luis Severino and Jose Quintana last season. Those two guys are gone after combining for 62 starts. Senga’s return will ease some of that burden, but reliever-turned-starter Clay Holmes will be counted on for some length. I like Holmes, but he has four MLB starts to his name and hasn’t started since 2018. I’m not sure he’s going to hold up.
I don’t think Paul Blackburn will hold up either, as he hasn’t topped 111.1 innings in his MLB career and has posted ERAs of 4.28, 4.43, and 4.66 while mostly calling the friendly confines of Oakland as his home. Frankie Montas might stay healthier (he’s actually hurt already), but he’s coming off of a 4.84 ERA with a 4.71 xERA and FIP for the Reds and Brewers, two savvy organizations on the pitching front.
Even if we get a continuation of what David Peterson did last season – and, by the way, he’s a big regression candidate with a 2.90 ERA but a 4.59 xERA and 4.10 xFIP – and get a healthy season of Senga, there are a lot of major question marks in this rotation that really don’t need to be there. Brandon Sproat will debut this season and he could provide some stability as New York’s top prospect, but I just don’t like this rotation. That’s even if “guy Adam can’t quit” Griffin Canning optimizes his arsenal and becomes a starting weapon.
And by “don’t like,” I mean it could be an average group and has a high enough floor of experienced guys with track records, but I do not see much of a ceiling out of this group with a team projected to win 90+ games and threaten for a World Series title.
The bullpen is fine. Edwin Diaz is great. A.J. Minter is a really nice add. But, this isn’t a group that screams “dominant” to me.
New York Mets Player to Watch
3B Mark Vientos
One of the most pleasant surprises of the 2024 season was the breakout of Vientos, who hit 27 homers in 454 PA and had a .356 wOBA with a 133 wRC+. Now the question is whether or not he can sustain that type of performance. The home runs are there per the projection systems, who all have him around 30, but regression with his .324 BABIP is also a common theme, lowering his batting average and OBP with a well below-average walk rate.
I’m really curious to see what happens here. Vientos had some outstanding contact authority metrics, ranking in the 82nd percentile in average exit velo, 92nd in Barrel%, and 80th in Hard Hit%. At the same time, he has below-average bat speed, a high Chase Rate, and a high Whiff%. After slashing .291/.347/.549 in the first half, the league adjusted and he slashed .247/.302/.489 in the second half, but that power production still left him with a 120 wRC+ in spite of a 33.7% K%.
Vientos was objectively bad in his 65 MLB games in 2023, but he crushed Triple-A pitching and has some excellent minor league stats. He’s a guy I’m watching very closely this season.
New York Mets Season Win Total Odds & Prediction
A top-10, or maybe even top-five offense, paired with an average or slightly better pitching staff wins a lot of baseball games. Will that lead to 90+ wins? It very well could. At that point, it’s really about whether or not guys stay healthy. And I have to say that I am concerned about the health of the starting rotation for the Mets.
The other wild card for all of these contenders is that they can add at the Trade Deadline. I can’t see the Marlins trading within the division, but what if the Mets suddenly have a Sandy Alcantara at the front of the rotation for the stretch run? What if the Mariners are out of it and trade one of their top arms? The Mets could end up with a Kevin Gausman or Chris Bassitt to make up for the loss of somebody.
These are all things to factor in with high-floor teams that have expectations and that’s precisely what the Mets are. I think this line is pretty accurate, though, especially since they won 89 games without Soto last season. I just can’t get over how pedestrian the pitching staff looks as of now.
Slight Lean: Under 89.5
