New York Mets vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction:
The Arizona Diamondbacks and New York Mets find themselves in the heat of the National League Wild Card chase with a chance to get back into their respective division races. They go toe-to-toe in Arizona on Wednesday.
The Diamondbacks give Eduardo Rodriguez the start. Rodriguez is making just his fourth start of the season due to injury. He is looking to get his strikeout numbers back to normal after posting nine strikeouts per nine innings for his career. That’s down to just 6.2 strikeouts per nine innings this season. Rodriguez has allowed at least three runs in two of his three starts this season and has a 3.94 ERA.
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He also benefits from being backed up by the top run-scoring offense in the league. Entering Tuesday’s series opener with the Mets, the Diamondbacks were averaging nearly 0.25 runs per game more than any other team in baseball with 5.35 runs per game overall, with the number growing to closer to 5.5 runs per game at home this season.
Despite being without its top two home run hitters, Ketel Marte and Christian Walker, for much of the second half of the season since the All-Star Break, Arizona entered Tuesday averaging over 6.4 runs per game since the break.
Mets starting pitcher Luis Severino will try to shut down this offense. He has a 3.84 ERA this season but enters having surrendered at least four runs in three of his past five starts.
Severino’s 7.4 strikeouts per nine innings are a career-low as he’s never dropped below eight strikeouts per nine innings. His fielding independent is 4.27, also dishing out 3.1 walks per nine innings.
Both teams have been relative equals in bullpen pitching this season. The Mets’ 4.03 bullpen ERA ranks 17th in the league, while the Diamondbacks’ 4.09 bullpen ERA ranks 18th.
With the Mets doing far more damage at the plate on the road rather than at home, averaging 4.6 runs per game at home compared to 4.9 runs away from home, there will be an oasis of runs in the desert on Wednesday.
MLB Pick: New York Mets vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Over 8.5 Runs
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