Mets vs. Dodgers Prediction
MLB and network executives have to be ecstatic with the NLCS matchup between the New York Mets and Los Angeles Dodgers. Maybe even more than the fan bases of both teams. The sport will have its two highest payrolls and largest TV markets on display with a chance to go to the World Series.
Major League Baseball does use the 2-3-2 format, so the travel isn’t as bad as it could be for a six-hour flight from New York to Los Angeles and a 5.5-hour flight going back the other way. But, it could be a taxing series in that regard for both teams, as they’ll cross three time zones with a lot on the line.
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The Subway Series dream is alive and well with the Mets in this series and the Yankees in the ALCS. That was the 2000 World Series matchup, which the Yankees won in five games. The Mets also lost in five games to the Royals in 2015, which is the last time that they won the NLCS.
The Dodgers, who clinched a playoff series at home for the first time 1981, won the 2020 World Series, which many put a giant asterisk in Dodger Blue next to, and their last WS prior to that came back in 1988.
When Steve Cohen bought the Mets and ran up payroll, the goal was “World Series or bust”. That’s been the Dodgers’ goal for a decade now with their high-dollar salaries and all-in mentality under President of Baseball Ops Andrew Friedman.
Drama all around as this series gets underway on Sunday.
Mets vs. Dodgers NLCS Schedule
Game 1: Sunday October 13, 8:15 p.m. ET (Senga vs. Flaherty)
Game 2: Monday October 14, 4:08 p.m. ET (Manaea vs. Buehler)
Game 3: Wednesday October 16, 8:08 p.m. ET (Yamamoto vs. Severino)
Game 4: Thursday October 17, TBD (Knack vs. Quintana) (if necessary)
Game 5: Friday October 18, TBD (Senga vs. Flaherty) (if necessary)
Game 6: Sunday October 20, TBD (Manaea vs. Buehler) (if necessary)
Game 7: Monday October 21, TBD (Severino vs. Yamamoto) (if necessary)
(all pitching matchups are projected by me until otherwise announced)
How To Watch Mets vs. Dodgers
All games on FS1/Fox
Mets vs. Dodgers Series Odds
New York Mets +150 // Los Angeles Dodgers -180
Over/Under 4.5 Games: -700 // +550
Over/Under 5.5 Games: -175 // +145
Over/Under 6.5 Games: +205 // -250
Mets vs. Dodgers NLCS Preview
The betting markets believe we’ll see at least six games in this series and I wouldn’t be surprised if we do. The thing about a seven-game series is that it can expose a lackluster rotation. Due to injuries, that is exactly what the Dodgers have. It is the single biggest advantage for the Mets in this series, as they’ve gotten some really excellent work for the last several weeks from their Big Three of Sean Manaea, Luis Severino, and Jose Quintana. David Peterson has also been quite good and there is a chance he could start in this series at some point.
The Mets also have the luxury of mixing up lefties and righties here if they want to try and keep the Dodgers off-balance. New York wiped out Philadelphia in four games and the extra two days of rest compared to the Dodgers allow them to align the rotation however they want. LA, meanwhile, is kind of beholden to the schedule and required rest now.
I don’t think Peterson will get a start early because he’ll likely be the piggyback for Kodai Senga in Game 1. Peterson may get the lefty/lefty matchup twice with Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman with Senga going a couple of innings for Carlos Mendoza’s crew. That’s how they set up Game 1 against the Phillies and it worked well, as Senga gave up a leadoff homer to Kyle Schwarber, but that was it and Peterson threw three scoreless after that.
Unfortunately for the Mets, they won’t have the same bullpen advantage in this series that they had in the NLDS. The Phillies pen was awful. They gave up 17 runs in 12.2 innings of work, with six of them in Game 1. The Dodgers pen has been pitching all along and has allowed six runs in 24.1 innings. The Phillies pen was atrocious with the long layoff. And the Mets pen has allowed 11 runs on 20 hits in 24.2 innings and, most importantly, walked 13 guys.
The walks are the single biggest concern I have about the Mets. Their offense is performing at a high level and has a chance to keep pace with the Dodgers, but the walks may help the Dodgers set up innings. New York’s 9.6% BB% for the season was the third-highest in baseball. The 10.7% BB% from the bullpen was also the third-highest. The two ahead of them were the White Sox and Angels, who lost 220 combined games.
The Mets dropped their BB% to 8.2% and had a 27.7% K% in September, which is how they got themselves into the postseason. But, if those bad habits re-emerge, it will put a lot of stress and strain on the group. The bullpen had a 12.4% BB% against the Phillies and the starters had a 5.3% BB%. In other words, stay vigilant on some live betting opportunities to back the Dodgers late in games where they are tied or trailing.
Offensively, the Dodgers were mostly stifled by Padres pitching, getting held to a .228/.288/.401 slash. They only drew 13 walks in 178 plate appearances for a 7.3%% BB%. The Mets have drawn 28 walks to this point in the playoffs for a 10.4% BB%, but also have a 25.3% K%. The Dodgers had a 21.3% K% against San Diego and there are a lot of strikeout pitchers on that staff.
I hate to keep harping on the BB% and K% stuff, but it is tremendously important. Hits are harder to come by in the postseason because teams aren’t throwing bad pitchers and manufacturing runs by stringing hits together is a difficult thing. The Mets have scored 38 runs in the postseason, but they’re only batting .241. The Dodgers scored 24 runs and they’re only batting .228. It’s just the environment at this time of the year. So the ability to make contact or draw a walk really helps.
As impressive as the Mets have been the last several weeks, I think the Dodgers eliminated the second-best NL team by knocking out the Padres. The Phillies were a .500 team for about three months before hitting the postseason. It has been the Padres and Mets who have really stood out, but the top-end talent and the bullpen for San Diego are both better than what New York has to offer in my opinion.
The starting pitcher advantage for the Mets is a real thing, but the Dodgers have a sizable bullpen advantage in my view and I think we see that play out in this series. With the LA series price pretty lofty at -180, I’ll cut it down by taking the Dodgers in six or fewer games with -1.5 at +115.
The SP advantage is the only advantage I see for the Mets, who were an out away from getting bounced by the Brewers and caught the Phillies as a bit of an overrated division champ that really struggled with the layoff, especially in the bullpen. Phillies starters only gave up six runs in 21.1 innings for a 2.53 ERA, but the late innings went New York’s way. I don’t think that happens again.
Pick: Dodgers -1.5 Games (+115)
