Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Prediction:
The Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets hook up for their second series in two weeks on Friday, this time in New York. The Phillies will battle for playoff seeding and the Mets to put themselves in good standing for the final National League Wild Card spot.
David Peterson gets the start for the Mets. His 2.85 ERA does not appear sustainable despite allowing two earned runs or fewer in seven of his past eight starts.
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Peterson’s fielding independent is more than a full point higher than his ERA at 3.86, and his 7.3 strikeouts per nine innings is a career-low, with his saving grace being that he has only allowed 0.7 home runs per nine innings to offset his 3.5 walks per nine innings.
Backing up Peterson is a Mets bullpen that has a 4.12 ERA since July 1, which ranks 14th in the league, but an offense that is seventh in scoring with 4.8 runs per game.
Though the Mets figure to be without Francisco Lindor on Friday, they catch a break with Phillies starting pitcher Cristopher Sanchez having some of the largest home and road splits in baseball.
Sanchez has a 3.24 ERA with 0.5 home runs and two walks per nine innings allowed, but even with having allowed three earned runs or fewer in six straight starts, he has a 2.05 ERA at home and a 5.13 ERA on the road.
The Phillies offense continues to be one of the most lethal in the league, with their more than 4.8 runs per game ranking fifth in the league, but their bullpen is 21st in ERA since July 1 with a 4.44 ERA.
With two of the best lineups in the National League, Peterson overdue for regression, and Sanchez struggling on the road, Friday sets up for a bunch of runs.
MLB Pick: Philadelphia Phillies vs. New york Mets Over 7 Runs (would still play the over at 7.5)
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