Rays vs. Guardians
For now, Game 4 of the ALCS between the Rays and Guardians is slated for Friday night, but Mother Nature may not abide by that plan. A big reason why Game 3 was moved up five hours on Thursday is because the league didn’t want to run the risk of multiple postponements, which would have really jammed up the league and its TV partners. In fact, as I’m writing this at 8:30 p.m. ET, there is rain a couple counties west of Cuyahoga where Cleveland is. So, MLB erred on the side of caution to get the game in, even if they could have played it as scheduled.
The shadows played a huge role in Game 3, as hitters couldn’t pick up spin late in the game and the Rays either fell victim to strikeouts or pop ups, as Cleveland got ahead 3-2 and it stayed that way through the final out. We’ll see if Game 4 goes as planned, moves up or back, or if it gets pushed back to Saturday, which would push Game 5 to Sunday, a scheduled off day in the series.
Rays vs. Guardians (-110, 6.5) Prediction
Friday, 6 p.m. ET (as of now)
At time of writing, this one was still slated for 6 p.m. ET, but all-day rain could put a damper on things. Manager Stephen Vogt said that he was “worried about getting through today” when asked about a Game 4 starter. It looks like a bullpen game of sorts for the Guardians, as they could turn back to Foster Griffin on short rest or could give Tanner Bibee a try. We know that the Rays will roll with changeup specialist Nick Martinez.
Tyler Wells and Steven Matz were the only relievers used by Kevin Cash on Thursday, as he pushed Griffin Jax a bit too far and it came back to burn him on the Petey Halpin homer. He should manage this game very aggressively, as Martinez is a reliable starter, but mixing up the looks for Cleveland is also a good idea.
Lefties only batted .236/.266/.393 off of Martinez with a .286 wOBA, whereas righties batted .267/.295/.410 with a .307 wOBA. As good teams do, the Rays looked at Martinez and told him to throw his best pitch more, so that’s what he did after a couple years of lighter changeup usage with the Reds. The Rays bumped his usage back to 25.8%, his highest since 2023 with the Padres. But, the Rays also increased the use of his sinker to help him tunnel the changeup even more effectively. Martinez’s sinker runs 92.4 mph. His changeup is very slow at 78.3 mph. Not surprisingly, he had an 11.2% pop up rate and induced a lot of weak aerial contact with a 32.9% Hard Hit% and a 6.8% Barrel%.
Normally sinkerballers induce more ground balls, but because of Martinez’s arsenal, there were a lot of harmless fly balls over the course of the season. He allowed two runs on five hits in 3.2 innings against the Yankees in the ALDS after posting a 3.10 ERA, 3.97 xERA, and 3.96 FIP during the regular season.
Despite the splits, the Guardians will likely do what got them here and line up lefties against the righty. That becomes even more interesting with the deployment of southpaws Ian Seymour and Cam Booser, plus changeup-heavy right-handers Cole Sulser and closer Bryan Baker.
Cleveland’s pitching plan isn’t nearly as cut and dry. Bibee gave up two runs after lasting just batters in the ALDS against the White Sox. Joey Cantillo worked an inning with two walks in Game 1 of this series. Slade Cecconi worked a very efficient inning in Game 2 with 16 pitches, 12 for strikes. Matt Festa hasn’t pitched at all in the postseason. Shawn Armstrong and Tim Herrin appeared on Tuesday, but not on Thursday. Griffin only threw 63 pitches on Oct. 12 and could be an option here as well. Oft-injured righty Daniel Espino worked back-to-back days just once during the regular season, as he pitched a scoreless inning on Sept. 25. He pitched in Game 1 and then again in Game 3. I’m not sure the Guardians will rush to use him again, even though he only threw 12 pitches.
A rainout would absolutely bring Griffin back into play and I anticipate he would start on Saturday if that were the case. He may start on Friday anyway, but Cleveland still needs a Game 5 starter, as both Parker Messick and Gavin Williams have been ridden hard in the regular season and postseason. Therefore, my guess is a straight bullpen game on Friday and Griffin on Saturday.
Rays vs. Guardians Prediction
With so many ifs and buts about this game so far in advance, it’s hard to have a strong take. However, it should be noted that the Rays have struck out 27 times in the first three games of this series. Given that this is not an offense based on hitting for power, striking out is even more detrimental. This is an offense built on putting the ball in play. They have even only drawn six walks.
From the looks of it, if this game is played on Friday, we’re going to have a pretty crisp, damp breeze blowing in off the lake and a miserable night for hitting. If that holds, even with a total of 6.5, I’d probably be looking at the Under, but check back once we have a better idea of whether or not this game will be played and who Cleveland’s starter will be.
