San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction:
The San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks wrap up the regular season on Sunday in Arizona with the Padres having sewn up the top National League Playoff Wild Card spot and the Diamondbacks entering Saturday night win percentage points behind the New York Mets and Atlanta Braves for the final two Wild Card spots.
While it is subject to change, Brandon Pfaadt was the expected starting pitcher for the Diamondbacks and enters in a massive funk, allowing at least four runs in six of his past eight starts and has seen his season-long ERA balloon to 4.80.
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If the Diamondbacks elect to not pitch Pfaadt, they’d be relegated to either throwing Zac Gallen on short rest, who has allowed at least three runs in two of his past three starts, or start Jordan Montgomery with a lot of bullpen help. Considering Montgomery has a 6.23 ERA and their 4.39 ERA in the bullpen entering Saturday ranked 24th in the league.
The Padres offense should find success regardless of who pitches as their .273 batting average against-right handed pitching entering Saturday led the league and their five runs per game on the road ranks seventh.
Arizona counters with the league’s top scoring lineup at nearly 5.5 runs per game overall and 5.65 runs per game scored at home this season and will look to improve upon those numbers against Padres starting pitcher Martin Perez.
Since Perez was traded from the Pittsburgh Pirates to the Padres, he has been a revelation with a 2.61 ERA across nine starts, but with what he is allowing, the ERA is unsustainable.
Since joining the Padres, Perez has a FIP that is more than two points higher than his ERA at 4.68 while allowing 1.5 home runs and 2.8 walks per nine innings in this stretch.
With Perez due for massive regression and having to face the league’s top lineup in a game where there are playoff implications and Arizona having their own pitching issues, the regular season will end with these two teams putting up a lot of runs.
The Play: Padres vs. Diamondbacks Over 9 Runs
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