San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction:
The San Diego Padres have already secured a playoff spot. They still have a chance to win the National League West if they can knock off the Los Angeles Dodgers on the road on Thursday.
The Dodgers give Walker Buehler that start. Buehler has been reeling in 2024 with a 5.63 ERA and at least three runs allowed in 12 of his 15 pitching appearances this season.
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With 2.0 home runs and 3.5 walks per nine innings allowed, Buehler’s 5.68 fielding independent is even higher than his ERA. He now has to face a Padres offense that leads Major League Baseball with a .274 batting average against right-handed pitching.
Joe Musgrove is tasked with outdueling Buehler on the mound for San Diego. While he owns a 3.95 ERA with 1.3 home runs per nine innings, he has been a different pitcher since coming off the injured list on August 12. He has posted a 2.05 ERA with 10.4 strikeouts per nine innings and zero or one run allowed in six of his eight starts since returning.
While the Dodgers are second in the league in overall runs scored, they’ve experienced a steep decline in offensive production at home versus on the road, with under 4.9 runs per game at home compared to nearly 5.4 runs per game on the road.
While that is one of the largest home-to-road splits in baseball, the Padres’ uptick in production on the road is the largest in the National League. They’ve registered nearly 5.1 runs per game on the road entering Wednesday compared to just over 4.4 runs per game at home.
The San Diego Padres bullpen has also performed better down the stretch, ranking eighth in ERA since July 1 with a 3.45 ERA, while the Dodgers are 16th with a 4.29 ERA.
With Buehler’s season-long struggles coupled with the San Diego Padres doing their best work at the plate on the road, the Padres will get a big win on Thursday to keep whatever hopes they have of winning the division alive.
MLB Pick: San Diego Padres +105
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