San Francisco Giants vs. Baltimore Orioles Prediction:
The Baltimore Orioles began Wednesday four games out of first place in the American League East race behind the New York Yankees. They find themselves in do-or-die mode on Thursday when they host the San Francisco Giants.
Zach Eflin gets the start for Baltimore. Eflin has a 3.55 ERA overall this season, but since being traded from the Tampa Bay Rays to Baltimore at the trade deadline, that has shrunk to a 2.22 ERA with 8.3 strikeouts and one walk issued per nine innings.
Top MLB Resources:
Though Eflin’s surface numbers have been far better in Baltimore, his advanced numbers are similar, with a 3.42 fielding independent with Baltimore compared to a 3.61 fielding independent overall this season.
The Orioles back up Eflin with a bullpen that has struggled down the stretch. Since July 1, it has ranked 27th in bullpen ERA with a 4.94 ERA. They face a Giants offense that has done its best work on the road.
The Giants offense entered Wednesday ranked 17th in the league in run production with just under 4.3 runs per game but have been more explosive on the road. They rank 16th with nearly 4.4 runs per game and are third among National League teams in home runs per at-bat on the road while ranking last in this category in their home games.
The Giants turn to Logan Webb, who has allowed at least three runs in each of his past four starts. Webb has a 3.53 ERA despite allowing only 0.5 home runs and 2.2 walks per nine innings.
Webb’s biggest issue has always been an inability to sustain the success he has had pitching at home, posting a career 2.78 home ERA and a 4.12 ERA on the road.
In 2024, Webb’s splits are very similar, with a 2.83 ERA at home compared to a 4.30 ERA on the road. He is tasked with holding down an Orioles offense that is second in scoring in the American League with 4.8 runs per game while also leading the league in the percentage of at-bats that resulted in a home run entering Wednesday.
With the Giants’ offense far more explosive on the road, the Orioles’ bullpen issues, and Webb’s road pitching struggles, this is a good formula for a high-scoring game on Thursday.
MLB Pick: San Francisco Giants vs. Baltimore Orioles Over 7.5 Runs
To find more baseball value bets and MLB picks, visit Greg Peterson’s daily MLB lines.
