San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Prediction:
The Milwaukee Brewers have the largest division lead of any MLB team. They look to expand that lead in the National League Central on Tuesday when they host the San Francisco Giants.
Giants’ ace Logan Webb gets the start. Throughout his career, Webb has had a steep drop off in production on the road versus at home.
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Webb’s lifetime 2.65 ERA at home, with 0.4 home runs per nine innings allowed, balloons to 4.07 ERA on the road with his home runs allowed per nine innings rate doubling.
This season, Webb owns a 3.13 ERA with 0.4 home runs per nine innings allowed. That goes to a 4.11 ERA on the road compared to a 2.26 home ERA.
The Giants back up Webb with a bullpen that ranks 24th in ERA with a 4.19 ERA. The offense is 15th in scoring with 4.3 runs per game.
Oracle Park is notorious for being a pitcher-friendly ballpark. The Giants have large home run splits, hitting the fewest home runs of any team at home this season, while their 1.3 home runs per game on the road ranks sixth in the league. They will look to generate some runs against Brewers rookie starting pitcher Tobias Myers.
Myers has allowed two earned runs or fewer in seven straight starts. He has a 2.87 ERA this season, with a 1.83 ERA in this most recent seven-start stretch. However, his 3.99 fielding independent is an indicator that regression might be on the horizon.
Myers is allowing 1.1 home runs and 2.4 walks per nine innings. Though the Brewers’ 3.31 bullpen ERA overall this season is the National League’s second-best mark, their 3.75 ERA since the start of July is 13th in the league.
With Webb far less effective on the road than at home, Myers due for regression, and Milwaukee ninth in the league in scoring with over 4.8 runs per game this season, a lot of offense will be brewed in Milwaukee on Tuesday.
MLB Pick: San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Over 7.5 Runs
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