The Rockies Stink
Last year, I wrote about whether or not we should bet against the Chicago White Sox in every game when they got off to a 3-18 start. The 2025 Rockies were off to a 4-17 start through their first 21 games, so kudos to them for posting a better record than the 2024 White Sox over that same span. Of course, the White Sox would go on to set the MLB record for losses in a season with 121.
We have another punching bag to consider this season and it is the dudes from Denver, who have won consecutive games once this season and are actually tracking much worse than the White Sox through 40 games. Chicago was 12-28. Colorado is 7-33.
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As of May 11, an off day for our pals in the Mile High City, the Rockies were 19.5 games back in the division. I’m not even sure how I’d look it up to confirm that it’s a record, but I think it has to be. Oh, and manager Bud Black and bench coach Mike Redmond were both fired…on a day where the Rockies actually won a game.
It absolutely has a chance to stay on this level or get worse as the season goes along. So, that begs the question that I posed last season about the White Sox. Should we just bet against the Rockies in every game?
Colorado Rockies Stats
The stats are about as ugly as the standings. I cannot imagine any MLB sustaining a .175 pace over 162 games in a sport consumed by variance, but the Rockies are on pace to win 28.35 games.
Of their 33 losses, 27 of them have been by more than one run. They’ve also lost 11 games by 5+ runs. So, the run line against Colorado has been a very profitable venture to say the least. I half-joked in the White Sox write-up that we could start seeing some -2.5 run lines with them last season and I don’t think it’s out of the realm of possibility that we see that with the Rockies this season.
Colorado has averaged 2.2 runs per game on the road. The Coors Field Effect is a real thing, but this is a remarkably pathetic offensive performance. The Rockies are batting .189/.248/.289 on the road with a league-high 28.4% K%.
Even with a boost at home, the Rockies own a .234/.314/.407 slash. They’ve scored just under 4.55 runs per game at home. Opponents have scored 8.15 runs per game, including San Diego’s 21-run output on May 10. Collectively, over their first 40 games, the Rockies are batting .219/.286/.360. The worst qualified hitter by wRC+ last season was Maikel Franco. He batted .231/.281/.332.
This will shock you, but the pitching numbers aren’t a whole lot better. Altogether, the Rockies have a 5.77 ERA with a 4.69 FIP over 348 innings. Starting pitchers have a 7.09 ERA with a 4.91 FIP in 193 innings.
Colorado Rockies Schedule
Things don’t look any better for the Rockies soon based on the schedule. The notes in parentheses are based on the standings from May 11.
May 12-14: at Rangers (only upcoming opponent with losing record until June 2-4)
May 16-18: at Diamondbacks
May 19-22: vs. Phillies (would be a playoff team)
May 23-25: vs. Yankees (AL East leaders)
May 26-28: at Cubs (NL Central leaders)
May 30-June 1: at Mets (NL East leaders)
On May 5, when I originally published this article, the list of teams included the Tigers and Padres, as the Rockies went 1-5 in that stretch. I posted a question of “What would be a good Over/Under line for wins in that stretch?” Of those 25 games, maybe 4.5? 3.5? It is hard to fathom a team being as bad as the Rockies have been for a prolonged stretch, but this team just might do it. They’re 1-5 so far, so that might have even been an optimistic line.
So, that brings me back to the original question – should we bet against the Rockies in every game? Not blindly, but many will be looking to use moneylines against Colorado as parlay sweeteners and will also be looking for run line opportunities. The White Sox set the record for the most losses last season and still won over 25% of their games. History and the nature of baseball would tell us that the Rockies can’t continue being this bad, but they may be on their way to setting a new record for futility.
Sportsbooks will keep raising the odds as much as they can, including the run line – and like I said, maybe we even get some -2.5s on favorites in the future. With that upcoming schedule, the Rockies are sure to be an enormous underdog more often than not, so be prepared to pay some juicy prices, but the juice is likely worth the squeeze more often than not.
