VSiN Analytics MLB Report for Monday, July 31
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Monday, July 31, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Top MLB Resources:
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Better-rated bullpen teams for today’s action that are NOT favorites of -190 or higher: PHILADELPHIA, CHICAGO CUBS, SAN FRANCISCO, TAMPA BAY, TORONTO, HOUSTON
AVOID/FADE all better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher
Now, in games this season through Sunday, July 30, in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher, that team now owns a 184-104 record, but for -55.74 units.
System Matches: FADE MILWAUKEE, FADE SAN DIEGO, FADE ATLANTA
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
When looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend 3-game winning streaks, I have tracked that these teams have gone 163-103 for +31.21 units, an impressive R.O.I. of 11.7%.
System Matches: SAN DIEGO, ATLANTA
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Updating the results since 7/24 of when on 2-game losing streaks, the teams with better SM bullpen ratings in a matchup have gone 166-127 for +11.2 units. Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 80-52 for +22.19 units. The R.O.I. on this system remains 16.8%, but it was over 50% just a few weeks ago. We’ll continue to track this, hoping it turns back around soon.
2 Game Losing Streaks:
System Match: PHILADELPHIA
3+ Game Losing Streaks:
System Match: MILWAUKEE
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1427-1334 (51.7%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -169.88 units. This represents an R.O.I. of -6.2%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches: FADE BALTIMORE, FADE CINCINNATI
ROAD TEAMS that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1282-1675 (43.4%) for -165.79 units and an R.O.I. of -5.6% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Match: FADE ARIZONA
HOME TEAMS that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2898-2517 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -357.7 units and an R.O.I. of -6.6%.
System Matches: FADE MIAMI, FADE ATLANTA
Watch for HOME TEAMS that didn’t record an extra-base hit
HOME TEAMS that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 399-324 (55.2%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +38.97 units, for a R.O.I. of 5.4%.
System Match: WASHINGTON
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
HOME FAVORITES coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 4+ seasons, going 267-123 (68.5%) for +55.48 units and an R.O.I. of 14.2%!
System Match: ATLANTA
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PHILADELPHIA (+34), MILWAUKEE (+21)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: MILWAUKEE-WASHINGTON OVER 8.5 (+0.8)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE
MLB Top Situational Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily. >>See situational records for every team.
(901) PHILADELPHIA (56-49) at (902) MIAMI (57-49)
Trend: Philadelphia not as good at NIGHT (29-31, -10.25 units)
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA
Trend: Philadelphia worse in division (9-15, -10.75 units)
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA
Trend: Miami not as good in division (13-16, -2.25 units)
System Match: FADE MIAMI
Trend: Miami OVER in divisional games (17-10 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(903) MILWAUKEE (57-49) at (904) WASHINGTON (44-62)
Trend: Milwaukee better against RH starters (42-32, +9.05 units)
System Match: MILWAUKEE
Trend: Milwaukee bad against NL East/West (17-22, -3.55 units)
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE
Trend: Washington bad at HOME (20-33, -6.65 units)
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON
Trend: Washington bad at NIGHT (22-38, -4.70 units)
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON
(905) CINCINNATI (58-49) at (906) CHICAGO-NL (53-52)
Trend: Cincinnati not as good in the division (13-19, -4.60 units)
System Match: FADE CINCINNATI
Trend: Cincinnati better at NIGHT (35-26, +16.05 units)
System Match: CINCINNATI
Trend: Cincinnati OVER at NIGHT (35-25 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Chicago good against LH starters (19-14, +4.80 units)
System Match: CHICAGO CUBS
(907) SAN DIEGO (52-54) at (908) COLORADO (41-64)
Trend: San Diego better against LH starters (21-16, -0.85 units)
System Match: SAN DIEGO
Trend: Colorado bad against RH starters (25-46, -12.50 units)
System Match: FADE COLORADO
Trend: Colorado worse in division (6-19, -9.65 units)
System Match: FADE COLORADO
(909) ARIZONA (56-50) at (910) SAN FRANCISCO (58-48)
Trend: Arizona better at NIGHT (36-27, +11.15 units)
System Match: ARIZONA
Trend: San Francisco good at NIGHT (35-23, +8.15 units)
System Match: SAN FRANCISCO
Trend: San Francisco trending UNDER at NIGHT (22-34 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(911) TAMPA BAY (64-44) at (912) NEW YORK-AL (55-50)
Trend: Tampa Bay not as good on ROAD (27-25, -5.20 units)
System Match: FADE TAMPA BAY
Trend: NYY not as good in NIGHT games (29-37, -14.00 units)
System Match: FADE NY YANKEES
(913) BALTIMORE (64-41) at (914) TORONTO (59-47)
Trend: Baltimore better against AL competition (49-27, +22.00 units)
System Match: BALTIMORE
Trend: Baltimore OVER in AL East games (20-13 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Toronto bad in division games (7-20, -21.55 units)
System Match: FADE TORONTO
Trend: Toronto UNDER in NIGHT games (21-35 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(915) CLEVELAND (53-53) at (916) HOUSTON (59-47)
Trend: Cleveland better against RH starters (36-32, +1.60 units)
System Match: CLEVELAND
Trend: Houston not as good for bettors at HOME (28-25, -10.70 units)
System Match: FADE HOUSTON
(917) BOSTON (56-49) at (918) SEATTLE (54-51)
Trend: Boston better against AL competition (38-27, +12.25 units)
System Match: BOSTON
Trend: Boston and Seattle slight OVER in NIGHT games (69-62 total O/U)
System Match: OVER
(919) LOS ANGELES-AL (55-51) at (920) ATLANTA (67-36)
Trend: LAA UNDER against NL competition (12-17 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: LAA worse against NL competition (13-18, -11.00 units)
System Match: FADE LA ANGELS
Trend: Atlanta not as good against AL teams (21-19, -10.00 units)
System Match: FADE ATLANTA
Trend: Atlanta OVER in HOME games (33-20 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Atlanta OVER in NIGHT games (39-27 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Top Head-To-Head Series Trends
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled 20 MLB second half series’ with notable head-to-head trends.
NO HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES PLAYS TODAY
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING POST-RIVALRY SERIES PLAYS TODAY
