VSiN Analytics MLB Report for Monday, July 31

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VSiN Analytics MLB Report for Monday, July 31

The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Monday, July 31, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Better-rated bullpen teams for today’s action that are NOT favorites of -190 or higher: PHILADELPHIA, CHICAGO CUBS, SAN FRANCISCO, TAMPA BAY, TORONTO, HOUSTON

AVOID/FADE all better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher

Now, in games this season through Sunday, July 30, in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher, that team now owns a 184-104 record, but for -55.74 units.

System Matches: FADE MILWAUKEE, FADE SAN DIEGO, FADE ATLANTA

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks

When looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend 3-game winning streaks, I have tracked that these teams have gone 163-103 for +31.21 units, an impressive R.O.I. of 11.7%.

System Matches: SAN DIEGO, ATLANTA

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks

Updating the results since 7/24 of when on 2-game losing streaks, the teams with better SM bullpen ratings in a matchup have gone 166-127 for +11.2 units. Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 80-52 for +22.19 units. The R.O.I. on this system remains 16.8%, but it was over 50% just a few weeks ago. We’ll continue to track this, hoping it turns back around soon.

2 Game Losing Streaks:

System Match: PHILADELPHIA

3+ Game Losing Streaks:

System Match: MILWAUKEE

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game

Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1427-1334 (51.7%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -169.88 units. This represents an R.O.I. of -6.2%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.

System Matches: FADE BALTIMORE, FADE CINCINNATI

ROAD TEAMS that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing

You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1282-1675 (43.4%) for -165.79 units and an R.O.I. of -5.6% since the start of the 2019 season.

System Match: FADE ARIZONA

HOME TEAMS that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing

Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2898-2517 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -357.7 units and an R.O.I. of -6.6%.

System Matches: FADE MIAMI, FADE ATLANTA

Watch for HOME TEAMS that didn’t record an extra-base hit

HOME TEAMS that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 399-324 (55.2%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +38.97 units, for a R.O.I. of 5.4%.

System Match: WASHINGTON

Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites

HOME FAVORITES coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 4+ seasons, going 267-123 (68.5%) for +55.48 units and an R.O.I. of 14.2%!

System Match: ATLANTA

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:

System Matches: NONE

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:

System Matches: PHILADELPHIA (+34), MILWAUKEE (+21)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:

System Match: MILWAUKEE-WASHINGTON OVER 8.5 (+0.8)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:

System Matches: NONE

MLB Top Situational Trend Spots

The following situational trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily. >>See situational records for every team.

(901) PHILADELPHIA (56-49) at (902) MIAMI (57-49)

Trend: Philadelphia not as good at NIGHT (29-31, -10.25 units)

System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA

Trend: Philadelphia worse in division (9-15, -10.75 units)

System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA

Trend: Miami not as good in division (13-16, -2.25 units)

System Match: FADE MIAMI

Trend: Miami OVER in divisional games (17-10 O/U)

System Match: OVER

(903) MILWAUKEE (57-49) at (904) WASHINGTON (44-62)

Trend: Milwaukee better against RH starters (42-32, +9.05 units)

System Match: MILWAUKEE

Trend: Milwaukee bad against NL East/West (17-22, -3.55 units)

System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE

Trend: Washington bad at HOME (20-33, -6.65 units)

System Match: FADE WASHINGTON

Trend: Washington bad at NIGHT (22-38, -4.70 units)

System Match: FADE WASHINGTON

(905) CINCINNATI (58-49) at (906) CHICAGO-NL (53-52)

Trend: Cincinnati not as good in the division (13-19, -4.60 units)

System Match: FADE CINCINNATI

Trend: Cincinnati better at NIGHT (35-26, +16.05 units)

System Match: CINCINNATI

Trend: Cincinnati OVER at NIGHT (35-25 O/U)

System Match: OVER

Trend: Chicago good against LH starters (19-14, +4.80 units)

System Match: CHICAGO CUBS

(907) SAN DIEGO (52-54) at (908) COLORADO (41-64)

Trend: San Diego better against LH starters (21-16, -0.85 units)

System Match: SAN DIEGO

Trend: Colorado bad against RH starters (25-46, -12.50 units)

System Match: FADE COLORADO

Trend: Colorado worse in division (6-19, -9.65 units)

System Match: FADE COLORADO

(909) ARIZONA (56-50) at (910) SAN FRANCISCO (58-48)

Trend: Arizona better at NIGHT (36-27, +11.15 units)

System Match: ARIZONA

Trend: San Francisco good at NIGHT (35-23, +8.15 units)

System Match: SAN FRANCISCO

Trend: San Francisco trending UNDER at NIGHT (22-34 O/U)

System Match: UNDER

(911) TAMPA BAY (64-44) at (912) NEW YORK-AL (55-50)

Trend: Tampa Bay not as good on ROAD (27-25, -5.20 units)

System Match: FADE TAMPA BAY

Trend: NYY not as good in NIGHT games (29-37, -14.00 units)

System Match: FADE NY YANKEES

(913) BALTIMORE (64-41) at (914) TORONTO (59-47)

Trend: Baltimore better against AL competition (49-27, +22.00 units)

System Match: BALTIMORE

Trend: Baltimore OVER in AL East games (20-13 O/U)

System Match: OVER

Trend: Toronto bad in division games (7-20, -21.55 units)

System Match: FADE TORONTO

Trend: Toronto UNDER in NIGHT games (21-35 O/U)

System Match: UNDER

(915) CLEVELAND (53-53) at (916) HOUSTON (59-47)

Trend: Cleveland better against RH starters (36-32, +1.60 units)

System Match: CLEVELAND

Trend: Houston not as good for bettors at HOME (28-25, -10.70 units)

System Match: FADE HOUSTON

(917) BOSTON (56-49) at (918) SEATTLE (54-51)

Trend: Boston better against AL competition (38-27, +12.25 units)

System Match: BOSTON

Trend: Boston and Seattle slight OVER in NIGHT games (69-62 total O/U)

System Match: OVER

(919) LOS ANGELES-AL (55-51) at (920) ATLANTA (67-36)

Trend: LAA UNDER against NL competition (12-17 O/U)

System Match: UNDER

Trend: LAA worse against NL competition (13-18, -11.00 units)

System Match: FADE LA ANGELS

Trend: Atlanta not as good against AL teams (21-19, -10.00 units)

System Match: FADE ATLANTA

Trend: Atlanta OVER in HOME games (33-20 O/U)

System Match: OVER

Trend: Atlanta OVER in NIGHT games (39-27 O/U)

System Match: OVER

Top Head-To-Head Series Trends

The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled 20 MLB second half series’ with notable head-to-head trends.

NO HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES PLAYS TODAY

Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

NO QUALIFYING POST-RIVALRY SERIES PLAYS TODAY