The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Monday, October 20, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Not surprisingly, Unders have been the total of choice in LCS Game 7s recently, with that option on totals going 8-3 (+4.55 units, ROI: 41.4%) in the last 11.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): SEA-TOR (o/u at 7.5) 

* Teams playing as underdogs in a MLB postseason series game after their bullpen was used for 5+ innings in the same series prior game are just 40-66 SU (-17.15 units, ROI: -16.2%) since 2016.
System Match (FADE): SEATTLE (+107 at TOR) 

* For the LCS, the beware of teams following up a same series win in which they scored six runs or more, as those teams are just 26-41 SU (-21.43 units, ROI: -32%) since 2015, including 3-8 since start of last year.
System Match (FADE): TORONTO (-130 vs SEA) 

The MLB postseason is a 12-team tournament made up of four rounds, with each round being played as a series with progressively more games the deeper you get. Perhaps unlike any other sport, because of the huge 162-game regular season schedule, the stakes of each and every MLB postseason game are enhanced tremendously, and as such, some different or additional handicapping strategies should be employed. With that in mind, one of the key factors in getting ready for these games is to know the history, and the trends/systems that have developed in recent years. Let’s dig into the key betting results from recent MLB playoff seasons to see if we can’t uncover nuggets that will help make these playoffs a profitable one.

Overall MLB Postseason Trends

Line angles

–  Home favorites of -112 to -180 in the MLB playoffs dating back to 2018 have been very vulnerable, they are just 86-84 SU (-32.83 units, ROI: -19.3%)
System Match (FADE): TORONTO (-130 vs SEA)

Series wins status

–  Home field has also proven somewhat advantageous in series that are even, as hosts in this situation have gone 91-81 on run lines (+22.52 units, ROI: 13.1%) since 2015.
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-1.5 vs SEA)

Stats from the last game trends

–  Teams playing as underdogs in a MLB postseason series game after their bullpen was used for 5+ innings in the same series prior game are just 40-66 SU (-17.15 units, ROI: -16.2%) since 2016.
System Match (FADE): SEATTLE (+107 at TOR)

LCS Round angles

–  Game-by-game underdogs have proven to be a profitable bet overall lately though, going 47-43 (+15.44 units, ROI: 17.2%) since 2018.
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (+107 at TOR)

–  Teams losing while failing to score more than two runs in a LCS game have struggled, and going back to 2007, in the follow-up game, there record has been 41-63 SU (-25.93 units, ROI: -24.9%).
System Match (FADE): SEATTLE (+107 at TOR)

–  The divisional round showed a trend in which teams scoring seven runs or more in a game were a solid bet in the next outing. For the LCS, the beware of teams following up a same series win in which they scored six runs or more, as those teams are just 26-41 SU (-21.43 units, ROI: -32%) since 2015, including 3-8 since start of last year.
System Match (FADE): TORONTO (-130 vs SEA)

–  Not surprisingly, Unders have been the total of choice in Game 7s recently, with that option on totals going 8-3 (+4.55 units, ROI: 41.4%) in the last 11.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): SEA-TOR (o/u at 7.5)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating and starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0% (4-5 for -1.58 units in the ’25 playoffs). The two-year regular season record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward.
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (+107 at TOR)

STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEM

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +5.4% (8-8, -2.06 units in the 2025 playoffs).
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (+107 at TOR)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2% (10-12 for -1.09 units in the 2025 playoffs).
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (+107 at TOR)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Majority handle bettors have endured two consecutive terrible playoff seasons in 2023 and 2024, with a combined record of 38-43 (46.9%) for -18.84 units and an ROI of -23.3%. These are typically high bet volume games so bettors have lost big in October.
System Match (FADE): TORONTO (-130 vs SEA) 

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game 

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored tso runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1974-2514 (44%) for -244.05 units and an ROI of -5.4% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Match (FADE): SEATTLE (+107 at TOR) 

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 4004-3482 (53.5%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -503.02 units and an ROI of -6.7%.
System Match (FADE): TORONTO (-130 vs SEA) 

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks. 

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: SEATTLE +107 (+10 diff) 

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots. 

(905) SEATTLE (96-77) at (906) TORONTO (100-72)
Trend: TOR is 52-34 (+20.54 units) on the run line in home games this season
Trend: SEA is 51-73 (-22.52 units) on the run line vs RH starters this season
Trends Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-1.5 vs SEA)

Trend: George Kirby has a 7.07 ERA in 14 innings across three starts this postseason
Trends Match (FADE): SEATTLE (+107 at TOR)

Trend: Shane Bieber has a 4.73 ERA in 26.2 innings across five postseason appearances in his career
Trend Match (SLIGHT FADE): TORONTO (-130 vs SEA)

Series #1: Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jays
Trend: Road teams are on 12-4 (75%, +9.62 units) surge in the SEA-TOR series
– The ROI on this trend is 60.1%
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (+107 at TOR)

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