The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Sunday, October 12, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Game 1 home teams in the LCS round are on a 13-5 SU (+6.67 units, ROI: 37.1%) surge since ’15.
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-169 vs SEA) 

* Unders hold a huge edge on Game 1 totals of eight or more dating back to the year 2000, 16-8 (+6.1 units, ROI: 25.4%)
System Match (PLAY UNDER): SEA-TOR (o/u at 8) 

Trend: SEA is 3-12 (-10.48 units) vs AL East teams with starter Bryce Miller since 2023
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE (+138 at TOR)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents a ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching (0-2, -2.17 units in the ’25 playoffs).
System Match (FADE): SEATTLE (+138 at TOR) 

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2% (7-7 for +0.53 units in the 2025 playoffs).
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (+138 at TOR) 

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage. 

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle. 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Majority handle bettors have endured two consecutive terrible playoff seasons in 2023 & 2024, with a combined record of 38-43 (46.9%) for -18.84 units and a ROI of -23.3%. These are typically high bet volume games, so bettors have lost big in October.
System Match (FADE): TORONTO 

The MLB postseason is a 12-team tournament consisting of four rounds, with each round played as a series, featuring progressively more games the deeper you go. Perhaps unlike any other sport, the huge 162-game regular season schedule enhances the stakes of each MLB postseason game tremendously. As such, some different or additional handicapping strategies should be employed. With that in mind, one of the key factors in getting ready for these games is to know the history and the trends/systems that have developed in recent years. Let’s dig into the key betting results from recent MLB playoff seasons to see if we can’t uncover nuggets that will help make these playoffs a profitable one.

Overall MLB Postseason Trends

Line angles

–  Home favorites of -112 to -180 in the MLB playoffs dating back to 2018 have been very vulnerable. They are just 84-80 SU (-29.20 units, ROI: -17.8%)
System Match (FADE): TORONTO (-169 vs SEA)

Series wins status

–  Home field has also proven somewhat advantageous in series that are even, as hosts in this situation have gone 89-80 on run lines (+21.52 units, ROI: 12.7%) since 2015.
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-1.5 vs SEA)

Totals angles

–  The last four MLB postseasons have been very good for Over bettors, as that side of the total has gone 93-88-1, Overs have produced a return of +21.77 units, an ROI of 12%. Total odds have been heavily shaded towards Unders in recent postseasons.
System Match (PLAY OVER): SEA-TOR (o/u at 8)

LCS Round angles

–  If you’re a “chalk bettor” and looking for the best line range in which to back LCS favorites, it has been in the -145 to -185 range, as they are 60-24 (71.4%) for +20.75 units since 2000, an ROI of 24.7%!
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-169 vs SEA)

– Game-by-game underdogs have proven to be a profitable bet overall lately, going 42-38 (+14.83 units, ROI: 18.5%) since 2018.
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (+138 at TOR)

–  Game 1 home teams in the LCS round are on a 13-5 SU (+6.67 units, ROI: 37.1%) surge since 2015.
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-169 vs SEA)

– Unders hold a huge edge on game 1 totals of 8 or more dating back to the year 2000, 16-8 (+6.1 units, ROI: 25.4%)
System Match (PLAY UNDER): SEA-TOR (o/u at 8) 

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing 8 different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 4003-3480 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -500.98 units and a ROI of -6.7%.
System Match (FADE): TORONTO (-169 vs SEA)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots. 

(941) SEATTLE (93-74) at (942) TORONTO (97-69)
Trend: SEA is 3-12 (-10.48 units) vs AL East teams with starter Bryce Miller since 2023
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE (+138 at TOR)

Trend: SEA is 34-48 (-14.42 units) on the run line in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE (+1.5 at TOR)

Trend: Kevin Gausman is 14-24 (-24.61 units) at home within the line range of -135 to -180 in the last six seasons
Trend Match (FADE): TORONTO (-169 vs SEA)

Trend: TOR has best record in MLB in night games this season (60-36, +19.96 units)
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-169 vs SEA) 

Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trend 

Series #1: Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jays
Trend: Road teams are on 8-2 (80%, +7.11 units) surge in the SEA-TOR series
– The ROI on this trend is 71.1%
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (+138 at TOR)

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