MLB Best Bets Today October 12
The Mariners have never been to the World Series. The Blue Jays haven’t been there since 1993. One of those two teams will go to the Fall Classic this year and Game 1 of the ALCS could be a huge stepping stone in terms of being that team. Mariners vs. Blue Jays Game 1 is undoubtedly a tough spot for Seattle, who won the winner-take-all Game 5 against Detroit in 15 innings just a couple of days ago and spent yesterday’s off day flying to Toronto.
Game 2 might be an even worse spot, as after playing the late game tonight at 8:03 p.m. ET, they’ll be forced to play at 5:03 p.m. ET on Monday. The adrenaline might be enough to push them through, but these two games are pretty grueling to say the least. Oh, and they have to send out Bryce Miller for Game 1 after using three starters, two in relief, on Friday.
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Here are the MLB best bets today for October 12:
Mariners at Blue Jays (-165, 8)
8:03 p.m. ET (FOX)
Bryce Miller had a season to forget. The 26-year-old had a 5.68 ERA with a 5.32 xERA and a 5.17 FIP over his 90.1 innings of work, as he missed ample time due to injury and wasn’t very effective when he was able to pitch. He was forced into duty against the Tigers and really battled, allowing two runs on four hits over 4.1 innings of work with a couple strikeouts and zero walks.
Among the many issues for Miller this season, a big decrease in K% was at the top of the list. His K% went from 24.3% to 18.9% and a 2.3% BB% bump exacerbated his problems even more. But, the drop in swings and misses is really problematic today because the Blue Jays, who don’t swing and miss much anyway, really thrive on making a ton of contact. Miller’s 48.4% Hard Hit% was a 7.2% increase from last season, though he did slightly lower his below average Barrel%.
He was actually ever so slightly better on the road, but like most Seattle pitchers, Miller would much rather be at T-Mobile Park. He’s got a career 4.77 ERA on the road in 186.2 innings compared to a 3.34 ERA in 215.1 innings at home. In terms of his slash line, he’s +34, +31, +66 home vs. road. This is a Blue Jays team that was dynamic offensively at home, including 23 runs in the first two games of the ALDS against the Yankees.
By winning in four games not playing a game that went 15 innings, the Blue Jays have things set up how they want. Kevin Gausman gets the ball today, followed by wunderkind Trey Yesavage tomorrow. Gausman finished the regular season with a 3.59 ERA, 3.70 xERA, and a 3.41 FIP in his 193 innings of work. Against the Yankees, he went 5.2 innings with one run allowed on four hits and a 3/2 K/BB ratio. I would anticipate more swing and miss here against a Mariners lineup that does struggle to make contact at times.
Gausman was better on the road, but he finished the season really strong with a 2.81 ERA over 83.1 innings in the second half. Certainly I’m concerned that he’s only made one start in essentially two weeks, but he’s a veteran and I’m sure he’s found ways to stay prepared.
Since I’m already on the Blue Jays to win the series, which I wrote about in my season preview linked below, I don’t see a need to double down here. Betting them to win the series was essentially taking them in Game 1 because they do have a sizable advantage. As far as a player prop goes, I’m trying to think about how Dan Wilson will handle Miller. I don’t think you want him turning over this lineup a lot. Emerson Hancock, Luke Jackson, and Carlos Vargas haven’t seen a lot of action and I think it will be a very quick hook on Miller.
Apparently the betting markets believe that as well with an Outs Recorded line of 11.5. I’m going to go with Over 3.5 Hits Allowed at -129. It’s a little bit chalky, but Rogers Centre is a good venue for hitting ground balls and Miller probably won’t have much swing and miss in this start. That seems like the most reasonable prop to me with the low Outs Recorded number and heavy vig on Over 1.5 Earned Runs allowed.
Pick: Bryce Miller (SEA) Over 3.5 Hits Allowed (-129)
