The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Friday, August 8, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

Trend: WSH is 6-18 (-10.32 units) against NL teams with a win pct between 42%-58% with starter Jake Irvin since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+135 at SF) 

Since the start of the 2024 season, teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 358-241 for +71.24 units, a ROI of 11.9%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (+100 vs CIN), TAMPA BAY (+104 at SEA) 

MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 360-306 record for +50.58 units and an ROI of 7.6% over the last three seasons, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATHLETICS (-108 at BAL), CHICAGO CUBS (-156 at STL), KANSAS CITY (+112 at MIN), TORONTO (+113 at LAD)

Trend: Home teams have swept the last eight (100%, +8.25 units) games in the interleague series between the Rangers and Phillies.
– The ROI on this trend is 103.1%
Trend Match (PLAY): TEXAS (+113 vs PHI)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings. 

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 season so far, I have found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 169-114 for +46.24 units, and an ROI of 16.3%! For the full 2024 regular season, teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and an ROI of 11.1%. This is continually proving to be a good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (+100 vs CIN), TAMPA BAY (+104 at SEA)

** NEW STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS **

Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating of higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game have gone 48-44 for -6.42 units when not matched up against similar. This represents an ROI of -7% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in games.
System Matches (SLIGHT FADE ALL): DETROIT (-288 vs LAA), MINNESOTA (-137 vs KC)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 125-165 for -43.16 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -14.9%. Fade these qualifiers anytime they come up.
System Match (FADE): LA ANGELS (+228 at DET)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 271-144 for +41.56 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +10%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON (-108 at NYY), TEXAS (+113 vs PHI), CHICAGO CUBS (-156 at STL), SAN DIEGO (-171 vs BOS)

Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 109-204 for -33.94 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -10.8%!
System Match (FADE): COLORADO (+197 at AZ) 

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For 2025, these teams are off to a very strong start, 106-33 for +22.67 units, an ROI of 16.3%.
System Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (-246 vs COL) 

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we were seeking a bounce back in 2025. That is happening big time, as we are rolling lately, and the season record stands at 321-321 for +49.78 units, ROI +7.8%. This comes after a breakout 63-52, +29.40-unit surge since the ASB!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (+100 vs CIN), HOUSTON (-108 at NYY), LA ANGELS (+228 at DET), TEXAS (+113 vs PHI), KANSAS CITY (+112 at MIN), TAMPA BAY (+104 at SEA) 

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, a ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 148-160 for -8.28 units (ROI -2.7%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. ROI on that was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so I’m looking forward to seeing what happens in the latter part of the season, 73-43 for -2.31 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – MINNESOTA (-137 vs KC)
3+ games – SEATTLE (-126 vs TB), TORONTO (+113 at LAD) 

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025 and after a huge four-week run of +16.81 units, it is now 178-133 for +16.38 units (ROI 5.3%). Hopefully, many of you remained patient with it after a slow start.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (-144 at CWS), MILWAUKEE (-144 vs NYM)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage. 

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: As of All-Star break 2025, when 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 254-115 (68.8%) for +24.76 units and an ROI of +6.7%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 14%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ARIZONA, SEATTLE 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the 2023 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 538-479 (52.9%) for -9.0 units and an ROI of -0.9%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of almost 7% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 1017 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): HOUSTON, BALTIMORE, MINNESOTA 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors have been outstanding over the last 2-1/2 seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 263-79 (76.9%) for +31.6 units and an ROI of 9.2%. This is typically not the kind of wager I used to get behind, but the numbers don’t lie. It is a great rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so consider that when backing.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT, ARIZONA 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 910-839 (52%) but for -206.24 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is about four full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA, BOSTON, TORONTO

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series. 

MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 404-315 for +47.07 units and an ROI of 6.5% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (-144 at CWS), MILWAUKEE (-144 vs NYM), TORONTO (+113 at LAD)

MLB Series Betting System #6: Small home underdogs of -109 to +120 have been awful in the first game of a series when welcoming a new opponent in a multi-series homestand, going 120-156 for -33.87 units and a ROI of -12.3% over the seasons
System Match (FADE): TEXAS (+113 vs PHI) 

MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 325-286 but for -81.80 units and a ROI of -13.1% over the last three seasons
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES (-112 vs HOU), BALTIMORE (-112 vs ATH), MILWAUKEE (-144 vs NYM), MINNESOTA (-137 vs KC), SAN DIEGO (-171 vs BOS), SAN FRANCISCO (-164 vs WSH) 

MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 360-306 record for +50.58 units and an ROI of 7.6% over the last three seasons, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATHLETICS (-108 at BAL), CHICAGO CUBS (-156 at STL), KANSAS CITY (+112 at MIN), TORONTO (+113 at LAD) 

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored 9 runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1888-1789 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -249.09 units. This represents an ROI of -6.8%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA (-137 vs KC), TORONTO (+113 at LAD) 

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1885-2384 (44.2%) for -202.80 units and an ROI of -4.8% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI (-115 at PIT), NY METS (+118 at MIL), PHILADELPHIA (-137 at TEX), COLORADO (+200 at AZ), WASHINGTON (+135 at SF) 

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3819-3346 (53.3%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -514.82 units and a ROI of -7.2%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (-106 vs CIN), ATLANTA (+108 vs MIA), BALTIMORE (-112 vs ATH), MINNESOTA (-137 vs KC), MILWAUKEE (-144 vs NYM), ST LOUIS (+128 vs CHC)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks. 

Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 222-147 in their last 369 tries (+33.00 units, ROI: 8.9%).
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-144 vs NYM)

Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 115-125 (-58.63 units, ROI: -24.4%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-144 vs NYM)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LA ANGELS +228 (+36 diff), TEXAS +113 (+22), PITTSBURGH +100 (+20) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LA DODGERS -137 (+27 diff), BALTIMORE -112 (+21), SEATTLE -126 (+15) 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: HOU-NYY OVER 7.5 (+0.6), CIN-PIT OVER 7.5 (+0.5), MIA-ATL OVER 8 (+0.5), PHI-TEX OVER 7.5 (+0.5) 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: ATH-BAL UNDER 10 (-1.3)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots. 

(901) CINCINNATI (60-56) at (902) PITTSBURGH (50-66)
Trend: Under the total is 49-27-4 (+19.30 units) when CIN faces RH starters this season
Trend: Under the total is 52-25-4 (+13.50 units) when PIT faces RH starters this season
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): CIN-PIT (o/u at 7.5) 

(903) MIAMI (56-58) at (904) ATLANTA (48-66)
Trend: MIA is 1-6 (-4.00 units) on the road vs ATL/NYM with starter Edward Cabrera in the last four seasons
Trend Match (FADE): MIAMI (-131 at ATL) 

(905) NEW YORK-NL (63-52) at (906) MILWAUKEE (70-44)
Trend: MIL is 36-20 (+9.85 units) at home this season
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-144 vs NYM) 

(909) COLORADO (30-84) at (910) ARIZONA (54-61)
Trend: Austin Gomber not good when overmatched on paper, just 6-21 (-8.35 units) as a large underdog of +175 or more
Trend Match (FADE): COLORADO (+197 at AZ)

Trend: AZ is 15-5 (+8.07 units) in the last 20 Home Divisional starts by Zac Gallen
Trend Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (-247 vs COL) 

(911) WASHINGTON (45-69) at (912) SAN FRANCISCO (58-57)
Trend: WSH is 6-18 (-10.32 units) against NL teams with a win pct between 42%-58% with starter Jake Irvin since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+135 at SF)

Trend: Under the total is 47-30-2 (+14.00 units) when SF is a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): WSH-SF (o/u at 8.5)

(913) HOUSTON (64-51) at (914) NEW YORK-AL (61-54)
Trend: HOU is 17-12 (+9.14 units) as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-108 at NYY) 

(917) LOS ANGELES-AL (55-60) at (918) DETROIT (66-50)
Trend: Tarik Skubal is 18-4 (+10.97 units) in his last 22 night game starts
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-294 vs LAA) 

(923) TAMPA BAY (57-59) at (924) SEATTLE (63-53)
Trend: Over the total is 52-30-4 (+19.00 units) when SEA faces RH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): TB-SEA (o/u at 7.5) 

(925) PHILADELPHIA (65-49) at (926) TEXAS (60-56)
Trend: PHI is 14-21 (-11.27 units) in line range of -145 or worse with starter Cristopher Sanchez the last 3+ seasons
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-137 at TEX)

Trend: Under the total is 33-19-4 (+12.10 units) in Phillies’ road games this season
Trend: Under the total is 37-19-1 (+16.10 units) in Rangers’ home games this season
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-TEX (o/u at 7.5) 

(927) BOSTON (64-52) at (928) SAN DIEGO (64-51)
Trend: Walker Buehler is 36-14 (+7.82 units) against NL West competition since 2019
Trend Match (PLAY): BOSTON (+140 at SD) 

(929) TORONTO (68-48) at (930) LOS ANGELES-NL (66-49)
Trend: Max Scherzer is 36-16 (+13.32 units) on the ROAD vs NL teams in the last six seasons
Trend: TOR is 20-10 (+11.22 units) vs LH starters this season
Trends Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+113 at LAD)

Series #11: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh, Thu 8/7-Sun 8/10
Trend: Cincinnati is 5-16 (23.8%, -12.04 units) in the last 21 games at PITTSBURGH
– The ROI on this trend is -57.3%
Trend Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (-121 at PIT) 

Series #16: Kansas City at Minnesota, Fri 8/8-Sun 8/10
Trend: Home teams in the Kansas City-Minnesota AL Central rivalry are on a 34-11 (75.6%, +22.82 units) run in head-to-head play.
– The ROI on this trend is 50.7%
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-137 vs KC) 

Series #21: Houston at NY Yankees, Fri 8/8-Sun 8/10
Trend: The YANKEES are on a 9-1 (90%, +10.07 units) run versus Houston.
– The ROI on this trend is 100.7%
Trend Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-112 vs HOU) 

Series #26: Philadelphia at Texas, Fri 8/8-Sun 8/10
Trend: Home teams have swept the last eight (100%, +8.25 units) games in the interleague series between the Rangers and Phillies.
– The ROI on this trend is 103.1%
Trend Match (PLAY): TEXAS (+113 vs PHI)

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next: Monday, August 11)

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