Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Monday, August 25, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Since the start of the 2024 season, teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 371-239 for +85.59 units, and an ROI of 14%!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (+100 at CLE), MINNESOTA (+119 at TOR)
Trend: KANSAS CITY is on a run of 21-3 (87.5%, +17.25 units) versus the Chicago White Sox
– The ROI on this trend is 71.9%
Trend Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-134 at CWS)
Trend: TEX is 11-1 (+8.78 units) in the last 12 games as a -144 favorite or higher with starter Jacob deGrom
Trend Match (PLAY): TEXAS (-181 vs LAA)
MLB Series Betting System #6: Small home underdogs of -109 to +120 have been awful in the first game of a series when welcoming a new opponent in a multi-series homestand, going 122-161 for -36.87 units and an ROI of -13% over the last three seasons
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE (-102 vs BOS), MIAMI (-109 vs ATL), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+110 vs KC)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating and starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 season so far, I have found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 182-112 for +50.59 units, and an ROI of 17.2%! For the full 2024 regular season, teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and an ROI of 11.1%. This is continually proving to be a good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (+100 at CLE), MINNESOTA(+119 at TOR)
** NEW STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS **
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 138-195 for -56.67 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -17%. Fade these qualifiers anytime they come up. This angle is 35-63 for -26.12 units since ASB.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-122 vs TB)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 297-173 for +19.28 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +4.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-132 at NYM), MILWAUKEE (-181 vs AZ), DETROIT (-198 at ATH)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 123-222 for -29.67 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -8.6%!
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+192 at NYY)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! For ’25, these teams have again gone negative after an unusually good start, 98-48 for -9.11 units. I have predicted that we would eventually be in the red, and we are again!
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-239 vs WSH)
Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 160-122, but for -115.88 units in the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -41.1%, very solid results. So far in 2025, these teams are still unusually positive, 74-31 for +5.13 units. Still, after a 4-4 two weeks for -4.18 units, we remain very close to going into the usual negative territory.
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-239 vs WSH)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we were seeking a bounce back in 2025. This season’s record stands at 360-378 for +38.73 units, ROI +5.2%!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (+100 at CLE), MIAMI (-109 vs ATL), MINNESOTA (+119 at TOR), PITTSBURGH (+108 at STL), LA ANGELS (+148 at TEX), SAN DIEGO (+104 at SEA), ATHLETICS (+160 vs DET)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 162-168 for -1.85 units (ROI -0.6%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. ROI on that was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so I’m looking forward to seeing what happens in the latter part of the season, 80-80, -5.62 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+110 vs KC)
3-games – TEXAS (-181 vs LAA)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
In looking this week, I have gone back and found that over the course of the 2025 season so far, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games or more have gone just 151-204 for -19.92 units, an ROI of -5.6%. Although last year it was about -1% ROI, this year’s loss ROI makes it an angle I want to keep tracking, and we will do so going forward.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-122 vs TB)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025, and it is now 201-153 for +10.81 units (ROI 3.1%). Hopefully, many of you remained patient with it after a slow start.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): PITTSBURGH (+108 at STL)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: As of the All-Star break, when 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 254-115 (68.8%) for +24.76 units and an ROI of +6.7%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 14%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO, MILWAUKEE
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the 2023 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 538-479 (52.9%) for -9.0 units and an ROI of -0.9%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of almost 7% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 1017 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Match (CONSIDER PLAYING): ATLANTA
DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group is 135-70 (65.8%) for -31.26 units and an ROI of -15.2%. Although positive in 2025, this has proven to be a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly. Interestingly, majorities backed these road favorites in all 38 possible games this season.
System Match (FADE): *WATCH FOR DETROIT at ATH, -198 CURRENTLY*
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 910-839 (52%) but for -206.24 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is about four full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES, SAN DIEGO
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the season-and-a-half, or since the beginning of 2024, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority handle bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 128-104 (55.2%) for +13.6 units and an ROI of +5.9%!
System Match (PLAY UNDER): BOS-BAL
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a 3-game winning streak are 415-326 for +43.63 units and an ROI of 5.9% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (+108 at STL), TEXAS (-181 vs LAA)
MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 200-146 for +21.74 units and an ROI of 6.3% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-119 at BAL), ATLANTA (-112 at MIA)
MLB Series Betting System #6: Small home underdogs of -109 to +120 have been awful in the first game of a series when welcoming a new opponent in a multi-series homestand, going 122-161 for -36.87 units and an ROI of -13% over the last three seasons
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE (-102 vs BOS), MIAMI (-109 vs ATL), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+110 vs KC)
MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 340-295 but for -79.02 units and an ROI of -12.4% over the last three seasons
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (-122 vs TB), TORONTO (-144 vs MIN), ST LOUIS (-132 vs PIT), LA DODGERS (-145 vs CIN)
MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 371-318 record for +49.49 units and an ROI of 7.2% over the last three seasons, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (+100 at CLE), KANSAS CITY (-134 at CWS), CINCINNATI (+119 at LAD)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1916-1817 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -255.43 units. This represents an ROI of -6.8%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): KANSAS CITY (-134 at CWS), SEATTLE (-126 vs SD)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1916-2425 (44.1%) for -213.64 units and an ROI of -4.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (-119 at BAL), WASHINGTON (+192 at NYY), MINNESOTA (+119 at TOR), ARIZONA (+148 at MIL), SAN DIEGO (+104 at SEA)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3881-3393 (53.4%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -510.59 units and an ROI of -7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI (-109 vs ATL), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+110 vs KC), NY YANKEES (-239 vs WSH), TEXAS (-181 vs LAA), LA DODGERS (-145 vs CIN), SEATTLE (-126 vs SD)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 569-476 (54.4%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +26.24 units, for an ROI of 2.5%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ST LOUIS (-132 vs PIT), CLEVELAND (-122 vs TB)
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 5+ seasons, going 348-175 (66.5%) for +46.31 units and an ROI of 8.9%!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES (-239 vs WSH), LA DODGERS (-145 vs CIN)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 249-254 run (+20.71 units, ROI: 4.1%).
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-122 vs TB)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: WASHINGTON +192 (+24 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: PHILADELPHIA -132 (+15 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIN-TOR OVER 7.5 (+0.9), TB-CLE OVER 7.5 (+0.8), ATL-MIA OVER 7.5 (+0.6), PIT-STL OVER 7.5 (+0.6)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: BOS-BAL UNDER 9.5 (-0.8), DET-ATH UNDER 9 (-0.7), SD-SEA UNDER 8.5 (-0.5)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(951) ATLANTA (59-71) at (952) MIAMI (61-69)
Trend: ATL is 47-49 (-31.11 units) as a ML favorite this season
Trend: MIA is 44-48 (+15.74 units) as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-109 vs ATL)
(953) PHILADELPHIA (76-54) at (954) NEW YORK-NL (69-61)
Trend: PHI is 15-22 (-11.51 units) in line range of -145 or worse with starter Cristopher Sanchez in the last 2+ seasons
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-132 at NYM)
Trend: Under the total is 39-21-6 (+15.90 units) in Phillies’ road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-NYM (o/u at 7.5)
(955) ARIZONA (64-67) at (956) MILWAUKEE (81-50)
Trend: MIL is 27-14 (+14.46 units) vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-181 vs AZ)
(957) PITTSBURGH (57-74) at (958) ST LOUIS (64-67)
Trend: PIT is 18-44 (-21.65 units) in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (+108 at STL)
(959) CINCINNATI (68-63) at (960) LOS ANGELES-NL (74-57)
Trend: Under the total is 47-26-6 (+18.40 units) in Reds’ night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CIN-LAD (o/u at 8)
(961) BOSTON (71-60) at (962) BALTIMORE (60-70)
Trend: Under the total is 36-17-4 (+17.30 units) when BAL is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BOS-BAL (o/u at 9.5)
(963) TAMPA BAY (63-67) at (964) CLEVELAND (64-65)
Trend: CLE is 28-10 (+17.48 units) in the -135 to +110 line range with Tanner Bibee since the start of the 2023 season
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-122 vs TB)
(969) LOS ANGELES-AL (61-69) at (970) TEXAS (66-66)
Trend: Under the total is 42-23-1 (+16.70 units) in Rangers’ home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): LAA-TEX (o/u at 7.5)
Trend: TEX is 11-1 (+8.78 units) in the last 12 games as a -144 favorite or higher with starter Jacob deGrom
Trend Match (PLAY): TEXAS (-181 vs LAA)
(971) DETROIT (78-54) at (972) ATHLETICS (60-72)
Trend: Tarik Skubal is 21-4 (+13.97 units) in his last 25 night game starts
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-198 at ATH)
(973) WASHINGTON (53-77) at (974) NEW YORK-AL (70-60)
Trend: NYY is 34-46 (-12.99 units) on the run line in night games this season
Trend Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-1.5 vs WSH)
(975) SAN DIEGO (74-57) at (976) SEATTLE (70-61)
Trend: SEA is 30-53 (-23.10 units) on the run line in night games this season
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-1.5 vs SD)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #8: Kansas City at Chicago White Sox, Mon 8/25-Wed 8/27
Trend: KANSAS CITY is on a run of 21-3 (87.5%, +17.25 units) versus the Chicago White Sox
– The ROI on this trend is 71.9%
Trend Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-134 at CWS)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
ATLANTA
Letdown after series vs. NY METS: 16-20 (44.4%) -9.12 units, ROI: -28.9%
Trend Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-112 at MIA)
NY YANKEES
Letdown after series vs. BOSTON: 18-16 (52.9%) -10.22 units, ROI: -30%
Trend Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-239 vs WSH)
SAN DIEGO
Letdown after series vs. LA DODGERS: 18-20 (47.4%) -10.75 units, ROI: -28.3%
Trend Match (FADE): SAN DIEGO (+104 at SEA)
