Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Monday, August 4, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: Sean Manaea is 13-0 (+13.00 units) as a home favorite of -180 or more in the last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): NY METS (-198 vs CLE)
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 219-146 in their last 365 tries (+31.40 units, ROI: 8.6%).
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-164 vs KC)
MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 325-285 but for -80.06 units and a ROI of -13.1% over the last three seasons
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (-176 vs MIN)
Since the start of the 2023 season, teams with better bullpen ratings, a win percentage >= 19% than their opponent, and favored by -190 or higher are 355-136 for +27.46 units, an ROI of 5.6%.
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-218 at COL)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating and starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 season so far, I have found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 149-93 for +43.67 units, and an ROI of 17.3%! For the full 2024 regular season, teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and an ROI of 11.1%. This is continually proving to be a good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically.
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-136 vs HOU)
** NEW STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS **
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 123-161 for -41.77 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -14.7%. fade these qualifiers almost anytime they come up.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE (+167 at PHI), TEXAS (+119 vs NYY)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 108-200 for -31.96 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -10.4%! This is the double whammy scenario to fade.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA (+118 vs MIL), COLORADO (+176 vs TOR)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and a winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For 2025, these teams are off to a strong start, 103-33 for +19.45 units, a ROI of 14.3%.
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-218 at COL)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we were seeking a bounce back in 2025. That is happening big time, as we are well in the black with a season record of 312-312 for +46.55 units, ROI +7.5%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (+104 vs SF), BALTIMORE (+167 at PHI), CLEVELAND (+160 at NYM), TEXAS (+119 vs NYY), TAMPA BAY (+104 at LAA)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, a ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 145-152 for -3.01 units (ROI -1%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. ROI on that was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so I’m looking forward to seeing what happens in the latter part of the season, 73-72, -1.49 units.
System Match (FADE): 2-games – ARIZONA (+104 vs SD)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend 3-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025. It is now 173-130 for +15.22 units. Hopefully, many of you remained patient with it after a slow start.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): MIAMI (-136 vs HOU), BOSTON (-164 vs KC), MILWAUKEE (-144 at ATL)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the ‘23 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 538-479 (52.9%) for -9.0 units and an ROI of -0.9%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of almost 7% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 1,017 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): MIAMI, TAMPA BAY
DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group is 135-70 (65.8%) for -31.26 units and an ROI of -15.2%. Although positive in 2025, this has proven to be a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly. Interestingly, majorities backed these road favorites in all 38 possible games this season.
System Match (FADE): TORONTO
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 910-839 (52%) but for -206.24 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is about four full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON, PHILADELPHIA, NY METS, TORONTO
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the season-and-a-half, or since the beginning of 2024, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority handle bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 128-104 (55.2%) for +13.6 units and an ROI of +5.9%!
System Match (PLAY UNDER): KC-BOS
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a 3-game winning streak are 402-314 for +46.38 units and an ROI of 6.5% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-144 at ATL), MIAMI (-136 vs HOU), BOSTON (-164 vs KC)
MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 196-143 for +21.37 units and a ROI of 6.3% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (-126 at PIT), SAN DIEGO (-126 at AZ)
MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 325-285 but for -80.06 units and an ROI of -13.1% over the last three seasons
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (-176 vs MIN)
MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 359-302 record for +54.49 units and an ROI of 8.2% over the last three seasons, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (-126 at PIT), MILWAUKEE (-144 at ATL), KANSAS CITY (+134 at BOS), SAN DIEGO (-126 at AZ)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing 8 different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1882-1786 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -250.25 units. This represents an ROI of -6.8%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE (-144 at ATL), SAN FRANCISCO (-126 at PIT), PITTSBURGH (+104 vs SF)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1877-2382 (44.1%) for -209.70 units and an ROI of -4.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI (+118 at CHC), HOUSTON (+111 at MIA), TAMPA BAY (+104 at LAA)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3808-3334 (53.3%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -509.62 units and a ROI of -7.1%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (-164 vs KC), MIAMI (-136 vs HOU), CHICAGO CUBS (-143 vs CIN), PITTSBURGH (+104 vs SF), COLORADO (+176 vs TOR), ARIZONA (+104 vs SD), LA ANGELS (-126 vs TB)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 562-472 (54.4%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +23.57 units, for an ROI of 2.3%.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-176 vs MIN)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs, typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 166-130 (+15.43 units, ROI: 5.2%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-136 vs HOU)
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 219-146 in their last 365 tries (+31.40 units, ROI: 8.6%).
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-164 vs KC)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CLEVELAND +160 (+21 diff), BALTIMORE +167 (+19)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NYY-TEX OVER 7.5 (+1.1), MIL-ATL OVER 8 (+0.8), MIL-ATL OVER 8 (+0.8), CIN-CHC OVER 7 (+0.7)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SF-PIT UNDER 8.5 (-0.5), KC-BOS UNDER 9.5 (-0.5)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(901) SAN FRANCISCO (56-56) at (902) PITTSBURGH (48-64)
Trend: PIT is 34-22 (+9.92 units) on the run line in home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (+1.5 vs SF)
(903) MILWAUKEE (67-44) at (904) ATLANTA (47-63)
Trend: Under the total is 13-3-1 (+9.60 units) when Erick Fedde is within -155 to +148 line range in night games since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIL-ATL (o/u at 8)
(905) CINCINNATI (58-54) at (906) CHICAGO-NL (65-46)
Trend: Nick Lodolo is 19-13 (+7.75 units) vs teams with a winning record in his career
Trend Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+118 at CHC)
(907) SAN DIEGO (62-50) at (908) ARIZONA (53-59)
Trend: AZ is 11-20 (-11.03 units) vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (FADE): ARIZONA (+104 vs SD)
(909) ST LOUIS (56-57) at (910) LOS ANGELES-NL (65-47)
Trend: Tyler Glasnow is 39-11 (+12.22 units) as a favorite of -166 or higher in the last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-194 vs STL)
(915) NEW YORK-AL (60-52) at (916) TEXAS (58-55)
Trend: Max Fried is 26-13 (+7.56 units) in road games since the start of the 2023 season
Trend: Max Fried is 49-34 in the last six seasons against teams with a winning record
Trends Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-145 at TEX)
Trend: Patrick Corbin is 7-13 (-5.84 units) as a night underdog between line range of -105 to +120 in the last six seasons
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (+119 vs NYY)
(917) TAMPA BAY (55-58) at (918) LOS ANGELES-AL (54-58)
Trend: Under the total is 21-10 (+10.00 units) when TB faces LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TB-LAA (o/u at 8.5)
Trend: Adrian Houser is 8-19 (-8.57 units) as a night underdog of +100 or worse in the last six seasons
Trend Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (+104 at LAA)
Trend: Yusei Kikuchi is 8-4 (+4.05 units) vs Tampa Bay in his career
Trend Match (PLAY): LA ANGELS (-126 vs TB)
(919) HOUSTON (62-50) at (920) MIAMI (55-55)
Trend: Under the total is 16-8-4 (+7.20 units) when HOU is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): HOU-MIA (o/u at 8.5)
(921) BALTIMORE (51-61) at (922) PHILADELPHIA (63-48)
Trend: Under the total is 28-14-4 (+12.60 units) when BAL is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BAL-PHI (o/u at 9)
Trend: Jesus Luzardo is 2-10 (-10.45 units) vs AL East competition since 2020
Trend: PHI is 12-19 (-13.83 units) vs LH starters this season
Trends Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-206 vs BAL)
(923) CLEVELAND (56-55) at (924) NEW YORK-NL (63-49)
Trend: Sean Manaea is 13-0 (+13.00 units) as a home favorite of -180 or more in the last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): NY METS (-198 vs CLE)
(925) TORONTO (65-48) at (926) COLORADO (30-81)
Trend: COL is 4-26 (-19.73 units) vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (FADE): COLORADO (+176 vs TOR)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next: Monday, August 4)
