The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Monday, July 21, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

Top MLB Resources:

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

Trend: Favorites are just 24-39 (38.1%, -31.20 units) in the last 63 games between Toronto and NY Yankees
– The ROI on this trend is -49.5%
Trend Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-120 at TOR) 

Trend: PIT is 11-2 (+8.55 units) as small favorite/pick ‘em (-135 to -110 line range) with starter Paul Skenes since start of 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (-132 vs. DET) 

* This season, teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 241-121 for +47.71 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +13.2%.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-126 vs. SF) 

* Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 114-124 (-58.28 units, ROI: -24.5%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): ARIZONA (-143 vs. HOU)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating and starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 season so far, I have found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 130-83 for +34.94 units, and an ROI of 16.4%! For the full 2024 regular season, teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and an ROI of 11.1%. This is proving to be a good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (-132 vs. DET), ATLANTA (-126 vs. SF) 

** NEW STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS **

Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating of higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game have gone 40-38 for -7.78 units when not matched up against similar. This represents an ROI of -10% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in games.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): NY YANKEES (-120 at TOR)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 107-140 for -36.62 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -14.8%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN DIEGO (+112 at MIA), HOUSTON (+118 at AZ)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 241-121 for +47.71 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +13.2%. This is obviously the ultimate scenario.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-126 vs. SF)

Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 95-190 for -42.27 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -14.8%! This is the double whammy scenario to FADE.
System Match (FADE): COLORADO (+128 vs. STL)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we were looking for a bounce back in 2025. That seems to be happening, as we are well in the black again with a season record of 270-281 for +23.54 units, ROI +4.3%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN DIEGO (+112 at MIA), BOSTON (+178 at PHI), TORONTO (-102 vs. NYY), LA ANGELS (+157 at NYM), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+186 at TB), MILWAUKEE (+104 at SEA), HOUSTON (+118 at AZ), MINNESOTA (+142 at LAD) 

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, a ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 130-137 for -5.26 units (ROI -2%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. ROI on that was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so I’m looking forward to seeing what happens in the latter part of the season, 68-64, +1.13 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – NY YANKEES (-120 at TOR)
3+ games – ARIZONA (-143 vs. HOU)

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025, and after a huge two-week stretch of 23-14 for +8.80 units, it is now 148-112 for +8.37 units. Hopefully, many of you remained patient with it after a slow start.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): TORONTO (-102 vs. NYY), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+186 at TB), MILWAUKEE (+104 at SEA)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that was developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage. 

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the 2023 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 538-479 (52.9%) for -9.0 units and an ROI of -0.9%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of almost 7% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat considering this angle has included 1,017 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): SAN DIEGO, DETROIT, NY YANKEES, MILWAUKEE 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their best overall in divisional games since the start of 2024, going 670-692 (49.2%) for -27.82 units and an ROI of -2.0%. This is about five full percentage points better for return. If you’re looking for a spot where these majorities are even better, try getting behind them when they back the underdogs in these divisional contests. In those games, these have gone 95-106 (47.3%) for -0.62 units and an ROI of -0.3%. This advantage is even greater and an indication that bettors do well when going against the grain.
System Matches (SLIGHT FADE ALL): NY YANKEES, ATHLETICS 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 910-839 (52%) but for -206.24 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is about four full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT, PHILADELPHIA, NY METS, CHICAGO CUBS, SEATTLE, ARIZONA, LA DODGERS 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 316-295 (51.7%) for -114.31 units and an atrocious ROI of -18.7%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI, SEATTLE, ARIZONA 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the 2023 season. Combined March/April ROI has been +0.6%, May has been a brutal -11.8%, June has climbed back up a bit to -10.6%, although these bettors lost -83.8 units in 2025. July has slipped to -13.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5% in consecutive seasons, and finally a September/October drain of -13.3%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will continue to be tracked for 2025:
– Majority handle bettors in JULY games of 2023-25 have gone just 487-419 (53.8%) for -116.39 units and an ROI of -13.1%
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS THIS MONTH

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series. 

MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 396-304 for +52.46 units and an ROI of 7.5% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (-102 vs. NYY), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+186 at TB), MILWAUKEE (+104 at SEA), ARIZONA (-143 vs. HOU)

MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 194-138 for +25.41 units and an ROI of 7.7% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (-126 at WSH), NY YANKEES (-120 at TOR) 

MLB Series Betting System #6: Small home underdogs of -109 to +120 have been awful in the first game of a series when welcoming a new opponent in a multi-series homestand, going 115-155 for -37.93 units and a ROI of -14% over the last three seasons
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+104 at CIN), TORONTO (-102 vs. NYY) 

MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 350-295 record for +52.61 units and an ROI of 8.2% over the last three seasons, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA ANGELS (+157 at NYM), SAN DIEGO (+112 at MIA), KANSAS CITY (+122 at CHC), MINNESOTA (+142 at LAD), HOUSTON (+118 at AZ), MILWAUKEE (+104 at SEA)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game 

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1858-1766 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -253.80 units. This represents an ROI of -7%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON (+118 at AZ)

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1849-2349 (44%) for -209.20 units and an ROI of -5% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI (-126 at WSH), ATHLETICS (+104 at TEX), DETROIT (+108 at PIT) 

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3755-3306 (53.2%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -527.86 units and an ROI of -7.5%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO (-102 vs. NYY), CLEVELAND (-137 vs. BAL), ARIZONA (-143 vs. HOU), LA DODGERS (-174 vs. MIN) 

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks. 

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 237-247 run (+16.05 units, ROI: 3.3%).
System Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (+104 at ATL) 

Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 114-124 (-58.28 units, ROI: -24.5%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): ARIZONA (-143 vs. HOU) 

Winning Streak Betting System #7:
Not surprisingly, when teams get to the level of having won nine games in a row or more, the lowest priced teams riding winning streaks offer the most value. In fact, teams on winning streaks on 9+ games and favored by -145 or less (or underdog) have gone 36-19 (+18.50 units, ROI: 33.6%) in trying to stretch the streak another game.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+104 at SEA)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CHICAGO WHITE SOX +186 (+33 diff), SAN DIEGO +112 (+17) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TEXAS -126 (+36 diff), CHICAGO CUBS -149 (+35), ST LOUIS -156 (+33), CINCINNATI -126 (+23), ATLANTA -126 (+21) 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NYY-TOR OVER 8 (+0.9), LAA-NYM OVER 8 (+0.9) 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CWS-TB UNDER 9 (-0.9), SF-ATL UNDER 9.5 (-0.7), KC-CHC UNDER 7.5 (-0.6), MIN-LAD UNDER 9 (-0.5) 

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots. 

(901) SAN DIEGO (54-45) at (902) MIAMI (46-52)
Trend: SD is 11-2 (+9.20 units) against non-divisional teams within the -200 to +110 line range with starter Randy Vasquez since start of 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (*if they fall into this line range, +112 currently)

Trend: MIA is 3-7 (-5.18 units) against NL Central/West opponents with starter Eury Perez since start of 2023 season
Trend: MIA is 0-7 (-9.02 units) as a short favorite (within line range of -115 to -140) with starter Eury Perez since start of 2023 season
Trends Match (FADE): MIAMI (-136 vs SD)

(903) CINCINNATI (52-48) at (904) WASHINGTON (39-60)
Trend: WSH is 1-7 (-7.00 units) in home night games within line range -180 to +140 with starter Jake Irvin since start of 2024 season
Trend: WSH is 5-18 (-11.36 units) against NL teams with a win percentage between 42%-58% with starter Jake Irvin since start of 2024 season
Trends Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+104 vs. CIN) 

(905) SAN FRANCISCO (52-48) at (906) ATLANTA (43-55)
Trend: Over the total is 17-10-1 (+6.00 units) when SF is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SF-ATL (o/u at 9.5) 

(907) ST LOUIS (51-49) at (908) COLORADO (24-75)
Trend: COL is 4-11 (-7.27 units) vs NL Central opponents with starter Austin Gomber in the last four seasons
Trend Match (FADE): COLORADO (+128 vs. STL)

(909) BALTIMORE (44-54) at (910) CLEVELAND (48-50)
Trend: Under the total is 32-17-2 (+13.30 units) in Orioles’ road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BAL-CLE (o/u at 8.5)

Trend: CLE is 27-9 (+17.48 units) in the -135 to +110 line range with starter Tanner Bibee since start of 2023 season
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (*if they fall into this line range, -137 currently*) 

(911) NEW YORK-AL (55-44) at (912) TORONTO (58-41)
Trend: TOR is 10-15 (-11.17 units) vs. AL East foes with starter Kevin Gausman since start of 2023 season
Trend Match (FADE): TORONTO (-102 vs. NYY) 

(913) CHICAGO-AL (35-65) at (914) TAMPA BAY (52-48)
Trend: Under the total is 39-23-4 (+13.70 units) when TB is a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CWS-TB (o/u at 9) 

(915) ATHLETICS (42-59) at (916) TEXAS (50-50)
Trend: Under the total is 34-14 (+18.60 units) in Rangers’ home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): ATH-TEX (o/u at 8.5) 

(917) DETROIT (60-40) at (918) PITTSBURGH (39-61)
Trend: Jack Flaherty has done well against lesser opponents, going 29-12 (+6.23 units) against teams with a 45% or lower win percentage in the last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (+108 at PIT)

Trend: PIT is 11-2 (+8.55 units) as small favorite/pick ‘em (-135 to -110 line range) with starter Paul Skenes since start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (-132 vs. DET)

(923) KANSAS CITY (48-52) at (924) CHICAGO-NL (59-40)
Trend: Under the total is 49-32-1 (+13.80 units) when KC faces RH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): KC-CHC (o/u at 7.5)

(925) MILWAUKEE (59-40) at (926) SEATTLE (53-46)
Trend: SEA is 11-5 (+4.68 units) as a short home favorite (between -111 and -140) with George Kirby in the last three seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-127 vs. MIL) 

(927) HOUSTON (57-42) at (928) ARIZONA (50-50)
Trend: HOU is 18-7 (+6.84 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (+1.5 at AZ)

Series #19: NY Yankees at Toronto, Mon 7/21-Wed 7/23
Trend: Favorites are just 24-39 (38.1%, -31.20 units) in the last 63 games between Toronto and NY Yankees
– The ROI on this trend is -49.5%
Trend Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-120 at TOR) 

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities 

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next: Thursday, July 24)

RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR