The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Monday, September 1, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

Trend: AZ is 9-2 (+6.55 units) as a home favorite with starter Ryne Nelson since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (-157 vs TEX) 

MLB Series Betting System #6: Small home underdogs of -109 to +120 have been awful in the first game of a series when welcoming a new opponent in a multi-series homestand, going 124-162 for -35.69 units and an ROI of -12.5% over the last three seasons
System Match (FADE): COLORADO (+113 vs SF) 

* Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and winning fewer than 43% of their games on the season are on a 69-140 skid (-38.88 units, ROI: -18.6%).
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (-121 vs MIA) 

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings. 

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 season so far, I have found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 184-117 for +47.26 units, and an ROI of +15.7%! For the full 2024 regular season, teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and an ROI of 11.1%. This is continually proving to be a good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically, and since the All-Star break, it is 57-45 for +14.72 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (-123 vs TOR), ARIZONA (-157 vs TEX) 

** NEW STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS **

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 147-200 for -50.75 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -14.6%. Fade these qualifiers anytime they come up, as it has become as reliable as almost anything else in this report. This angle is 44-68 for -20.22 units since the All-Star break.
System Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (-143 at COL)

Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 124-232 for -34.66 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.7%!
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (-121 vs MIA), COLORADO (+118 vs SF) 

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! For ’25, these teams have again gone negative after an unusually good start, 101-48 for -6.73 units. We have been hovering the red for about three weeks now, like usual.
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (-194 vs CWS) 

Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 160-122, but for -115.88 units in the ’23 & ‘24 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -41.1%, very solid results. So far in ’25, these teams are still unusually positive, 77-31 for +8.13 units. Still, we remain very close to going into the usual negative territory.
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (-194 vs CWS) 

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we were seeking a bounce back in 2025. This season’s record stands at 382-407 for +40.32 units, ROI +5.1%!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (-101 at WSH), DETROIT (-109 vs SEA)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
 I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. ROI on that was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so I’m pleased that we have been returning to normalcy in the latter part of the season, now 84-84, -5.29 units for the year.
System Match (FADE): 3+ games – TEXAS (+128 at AZ) 

Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
In looking this week, I have gone back and found that over the course of the 2025 season so far, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games or more have gone just 162-218 for -18.16 units, an ROI of -4.8%. After a couple of rough weeks, this is now back at “average performing level,” so we will continue to monitor it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (-121 vs MIA), ATHLETICS (+118 at STL) 

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025, and it is now 209-165 for +4.14 units (ROI 1.1%).
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-112 vs SEA) 

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage. 

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle. 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: As of All-Star break 2025, when 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 254-115 (68.8%) for +24.76 units and an ROI of +6.7%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 14%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, HOUSTON 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the 2023 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 538-479 (52.9%) for -9.0 units and an ROI of -0.9%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of almost 7% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 1017 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): MIAMI, DETROIT, TORONTO 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 910-839 (52%) but for -206.24 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is about four full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY METS, TORONTO, ATHLETICS, SAN DIEGO, TEXAS 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There has been distinct up and down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the 2023 season.
– Majority handle bettors in September/October games have gone just 481-398 (54.7%) for -117.29 units and an ROI of -13.3% since the start of the 2023 season.
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS THIS MONTH 

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.

MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 417-333 for +33.48 units and an ROI of 4.5% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (-111 vs SEA), TEXAS (+128 at AZ) 

MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 201-149 for +18.97 units and an ROI of 5.4% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (-112 at DET) 

MLB Series Betting System #4: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a reasonably good investment in the final game of a series, going 645-833 but for +40.22 units and an ROI of 2.7% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): LA ANGELS (+123 at HOU)

MLB Series Betting System #6: Small home underdogs of -109 to +120 have been awful in the first game of a series when welcoming a new opponent in a multi-series homestand, going 124-162 for -35.69 units and an ROI of -12.5% over the last three seasons
System Match (FADE): COLORADO (+113 vs SF) 

MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 344-299 but for -79.99 units and an ROI of -12.4% over the last three seasons
System Matches (FADE ALL): ST LOUIS (-144 vs ATH), CHICAGO CUBS (-122 vs ATL), MILWAUKEE (-158 vs PHI), SAN DIEGO (-157 vs BAL), TAMPA BAY (-111 vs SEA), ARIZONA (-157 vs TEX) 

MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored 6 or more runs in a win boast a solid 374-321 record for +49.33 units and an ROI of 7.1% over the last three seasons, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (+102 at CIN), SAN FRANCISCO (-137 at COL), TEXAS (+128 at AZ) 

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game 

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1930-1830 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -256.65 units. This represents an ROI of -6.8%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (-137 at COL), TEXAS (+128 at AZ) 

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1926-2437 (44.1%) for -212.76 units and an ROI of -4.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY METS (-121 at DET), CLEVELAND (+122 at BOS), PHILADELPHIA (+129 at MIL), BALTIMORE (+129 at SD)

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3903-3410 (53.4%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -513.98 units and an ROI of -7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI (-124 vs TOR), MINNESOTA (-194 vs CWS), DETROIT (-101 vs NYM), BOSTON (-149 vs CLE), CHICAGO CUBS (-122 vs ATL), COLORADO (+113 vs SF), TAMPA BAY (-157 vs TEX)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks. 

Losing Streak Betting System #2:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and winning fewer than 43% of their games on the season are on a 69-140 skid (-38.88 units, ROI: -18.6%).
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (-121 vs MIA)

Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 18-21 (+10.01 units, ROI: 25.7%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 87-169 (-59.91 units, ROI: -23.4%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (-121 vs MIA) 

Losing Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and playing against divisional opponents are just 38-74 in their last 112 tries (-20.81 units, ROI: -18.6%). Divisional foes love to stomp on their rivals when they are down.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (-121 vs MIA) 

Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs, typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 167-137 (+7.14 units, ROI: 2.3%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): TEXAS (+128 at AZ) 

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: DETROIT -109 (+26 diff), SEATTLE -108 (+17) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: SAN FRANCISCO -143 (+36 diff)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: TOR-CIN OVER 8 (+0.6)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LAA-HOU UNDER 8.5 (-0.5), TEX-AZ UNDER 9 (-0.5)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.

(901) MIAMI (65-72) at (902) WASHINGTON (53-83)
Trend: MIA is most profitable team in MLB as ML underdog this season (48-50 record, +19.96 units)
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+104 at NYM) 

(905) PHILADELPHIA (79-58) at (906) MILWAUKEE (85-53)
Trend: MIL is most profitable team in MLB as ML favorite this season (55-28 record, +15.66 units)
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-157 vs PHI) 

(907) SAN FRANCISCO (68-69) at (908) COLORADO (39-98)
Trend: Under the total is 54-35-2 (+15.50 units) when SF is a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SF-COL (o/u at 11.5) 

(909) CLEVELAND (68-67) at (910) BOSTON (76-62)
Trend: Under the total is 36-23-5 (+10.70 units) when CLE is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-BOS (o/u at 8) 

(911) LOS ANGELES-AL (64-72) at (912) HOUSTON (75-62)
Trend: Yusei Kikuchi is 17-11 (+12.89 units) as a day game underdog of +105 or more in career
Trend Match (PLAY): LA ANGELS (+123 at HOU)

Trend: HOU is 17-9 (+4.43 units) vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-150 vs LAA) 

(913) CHICAGO-AL (49-88) at (914) MINNESOTA (62-74)
Trend: MIN is 7-0 (+7.75 units) in the last seven home games vs Chicago White Sox with starter Bailey Ober
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-194 vs CWS) 

(915) SEATTLE (73-64) at (916) TAMPA BAY (67-69)
Trend: Under the total is 51-33-7 (+14.70 units) when TB is a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SEA-TB (o/u at 8.5) 

(917) NEW YORK-NL (73-64) at (918) DETROIT (80-58)
Trend: NYM is 28-37 (-15.70 units) on the road this season
Trend Match (FADE): NY METS (-112 at DET) 

(923) BALTIMORE (61-76) at (924) SAN DIEGO (76-61)
Trend: Under the total is 40-25-3 (+12.60 units) in Orioles’ road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BAL-SD (o/u at 7.5)

Trend: BAL is 12-5 (+6.21 units) against NL teams with starter Kyle Bradish
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (+129 at SD) 

(925) TEXAS (71-67) at (926) ARIZONA (68-70)
Trend: TEX is 16-34 (-15.94 units) as a ML underdog this season
Trend: AZ is 9-2 (+6.55 units) as a home favorite with starter Ryne Nelson since the start of the 2024 season
Trends Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (-157 vs TEX)

Series #17: San Francisco at Colorado, Mon 9/1-Wed 9/3
Trend: Colorado is 9-31 (22.5%, -17.07 units) in their last 40 games vs. San Francisco
– The ROI on this trend is -42.7%
Trend Match (FADE): COLORADO (+113 vs SF) 

Series #19: Chicago White Sox at Minnesota, Mon 9/1-Thu 9/4
Trend: Favorites are on a 25-6 (80.6%, +14.88) run in the White Sox-Twins AL Central rivalry.
– The ROI on this trend is 48%
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-194 vs CWS)

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities. 

ATLANTA
Momentum after series vs. PHILADELPHIA: 21-15 (58.3%) +4.19 units, ROI: 11.6%
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+101 at CHC) 

MIAMI   
Letdown after series vs. NY METS: 11-21 (34.4%) -8.58 units, ROI: -26.8%     
Trend Match (FADE): MIAMI (+104 at WSH) 

ATHLETICS  
Letdown after series vs. TEXAS: 15-20 (42.9%) -5.80 units, ROI: -16.6%     
Trend Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (+118 at STL)

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