Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Monday, September 15, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: BAL is 13-2 (+10.98 units) with starter Kyle Bradish against teams with a 47% or lower win pct
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-144 at CWS)
Trend: Road teams are on a 34-19 (64.2%, +23.41 units) surge in the in-state AL West rivalry between Houston and Texas.
– The ROI on this trend is 44.2%.
Trend Match (PLAY): TEXAS (+108 at HOU)
MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 353-306 but for -81.26 units and an ROI of -12.3% over the last three seasons
System Matches (FADE ALL): ST LOUIS (-115 vs CIN), HOUSTON (-132 vs TEX), ARIZONA (-132 vs SF), LA DODGERS (-123 vs PHI)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating and starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 season so far, I have found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 191-130 for +39.75 units, and an ROI of +12.4%! For the full 2024 regular season, teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and an ROI of 11.1%. This is continually proving to be a good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically.
System Match (PLAY): TEXAS (+108 at HOU)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 170-213 for -45.77 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -12%. Fade these qualifiers anytime they come up, as it has become a very reliable part of this report.
System Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (-101 vs TOR)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 135-247 for -34.83 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.1%!
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+138 vs ATL), MINNESOTA (+160 vs NYY)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! For 2025, these teams have again gone negative after an unusually good start, 109-54 for -11.53 units. We have been hovering the red for about a month now, like usual.
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-198 at MIN)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we were seeking a bounce back in 2025. It is doing just that, bringing the season record to 415-444 for +42.03 units, ROI +4.9%!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (-101 vs TOR), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+118 vs BAL), TEXAS (+108 at HOU), SAN FRANCISCO (+108 at AZ)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 189-190 for +6.08 units (ROI 1.6%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. ROI on that was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so I’m pleased that we have been returning to normalcy in the latter part of the season, now 97-93, -0.64 units for the year.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – ARIZONA (-132 vs SF)
3+ games – TORONTO (-120 at TB)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
In looking this week, I have gone back and found that over the course of the 2025 season so far, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games or more have gone just 181-239 for -17.68 units, an ROI of -4.2%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE (-144 at CWS), CINCINNATI (-105 at STL)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:00 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the 2023 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 538-479 (52.9%) for -9.0 units and an ROI of -0.9%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of almost 7% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 1,017 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): CINCINNATI, LA DODGERS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the 2023 season.
– Majority handle bettors in September/October games have gone just 481-398 (54.7%) for -117.29 units and an ROI of -13.3% since the start of the 2023 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS, ATLANTA, TORONTO, BALTIMORE, NY YANKEES, CINCINNATI, HOUSTON, ARIZONA, PHILADELPHIA
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 427-338 for +38.89 units and an ROI of 5.1% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-120 at TB)
MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 205-153 for +18.13 units and an ROI of 5.1% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-120 at PIT), TORONTO (-120 at TB)
MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 353-306 but for -81.26 units and an ROI of -12.3% over the last three seasons
System Matches (FADE ALL): ST LOUIS (-115 vs CIN), HOUSTON (-132 vs TEX), ARIZONA (-132 vs SF), LA DODGERS (-123 vs PHI)
MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 383-326 record for +53.54 units and an ROI of 7.6% over the last three seasons, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-168 at WSH), TORONTO (-120 at TB)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored 9 runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1959-1847 (51.5%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -248.27 units. This represents an ROI of -6.5%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO (-120 at TB), LA DODGERS (-123 vs PHI)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1947-2475 (44%) for -230.78 units and an ROI of -5.2% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE (-144 at CWS), TEXAS (+108 at HOU), SAN FRANCISCO (+108 at AZ)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3951-3444 (53.4%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -507.18 units and an ROI of -6.9%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ARIZONA (-132 vs SF), LA DODGERS (-123 vs PHI)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their 4-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a 4-game winning streak are just 126-130 (-55.69 units, ROI: -21.8%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): TORONTO (-120 at TB)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: BAL-CWS OVER 8 (+0.6)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: SF-AZ UNDER 9.5 (-0.5)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(903) ATLANTA (66-83) at (904) WASHINGTON (62-87)
Trend: ATL is 51-55 (-34.89 units) as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-168 at WSH)
(905) CINCINNATI (74-75) at (906) ST LOUIS (73-77)
Trend: Under the total is 15-8 (+6.10 units) when Zach Littell faces teams with a <= 0.500 win pct since the start of 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CIN-STL (o/u at 8.5)
(907) SAN FRANCISCO (75-74) at (908) ARIZONA (75-75)
Trend: AZ is 16-5 (+9.07 units) in the last 21 Home Divisional starts by Zac Gallen
Trend Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (-132 vs SF)
(909) PHILADELPHIA (89-61) at (910) LOS ANGELES-NL (84-65)
Trend: PHI is 18-9 (+9.11 units) in line range -115 to +115 with starter Ranger Suarez in the last four seasons
Trend: PHI is 11-9 (+3.38 units) in road night game starts against teams with a winning record by Ranger Suarez in the last four seasons
Trends Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (+101 at LAD)
(911) TORONTO (87-62) at (912) TAMPA BAY (73-76)
Trend: TOR is 55-30 (+22.18 units) in night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-120 at TB)
(913) BALTIMORE (69-80) at (914) CHICAGO-AL (57-93)
Trend: BAL is 13-2 (+10.98 units) with starter Kyle Bradish against teams with a 47% or lower win pct
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-144 at CWS)
(915) NEW YORK-AL (83-66) at (916) MINNESOTA (65-84)
Trend: Carlos Rodon not good in -185 to -210 favorite line range, going 4-10 (-15.20 units) in the last six seasons
Trend Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-198 at MIN)
Trend: Under the total is 12-6 (+5.29 units) when MIN is a plus-money underdog with starter Simeon Woods-Richardson since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYY-MIN (o/u at 9)
(917) TEXAS (79-71) at (918) HOUSTON (81-69)
Trend: TEX is 6-13 (-7.14 units) when facing teams with a >= 0.500 win pct with starter Jack Leiter since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (+108 at HOU)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #23: Texas at Houston, Mon 9/15-Wed 9/17
Trend: Road teams are on a 34-19 (64.2%, +23.41 units) surge in the in-state AL West rivalry between Houston and Texas.
– The ROI on this trend is 44.2%.
Trend Match (PLAY): TEXAS (+108 at HOU)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
BALTIMORE
Letdown after series vs. TORONTO: 11-21 (34.4%) -9.23 units, ROI: -28.8%
Trend Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (-144 at CWS)
NY YANKEES
Letdown after series vs. BOSTON: 19-16 (54.3%) -9.22 units, ROI: -26.3%
Trend Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-198 at MIN)
