The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Saturday, August 16, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

Trend: Max Fried is 21-4 (+14.52 units) in his last 25 starts vs NL Central teams
Trend Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-144 at STL) 

Trend: Under the total is 39-20-3 (+17.00 units) in Orioles’ road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BAL-HOU (o/u at 8.5) 

Since the start of the 2023 season, teams with a better SM bullpen rating and a winning percentage >=19% than their opponent have gone 264-139 for +30.25 units, an ROI of 7.5%.
System Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (-192 at COL) 

Trend: MILWAUKEE is on an extended 30-10 (75%, +18.93 units) run versus Cincinnati in head-to-head play.
– The ROI on this trend is 47.3%
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-125 at CIN)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings. 

** NEW STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS **

Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating of higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game have gone 51-47 for -7.81 units when not matched up against similar. This represents an ROI of -8% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): NY YANKEES (-144 at STL)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 131-179 for -48.79 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -15.7%. Fade these qualifiers anytime they come up. This angle is 28-47 for -18.24 units since ASB.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+125 at KC), HOUSTON (-144 vs BAL), LA ANGELS (-105 at ATH)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 285-163 for +26.41 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +5.9%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-233 vs PIT), SEATTLE (-119 at NYM), ST LOUIS (+119 vs NYY)

Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 117-213 for -30.67 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.3%!
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+118 vs PHI), COLORADO (+156 vs AZ)

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! For 2025, these teams have again gone negative after an unusually good start, 87-45 for -13.33 units. I have predicted that we would eventually be in the red, and we are again!
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (-233 vs PIT)

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and a winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For ’25, these teams are off to a very strong start, 112-36 for +22.24 units, an ROI of 15%.
System Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (-192 at COL) 

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we were seeking a bounce back in 2025. This season’s record stands at 338-345 for +46.51 units, ROI +6.8%!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TEXAS (+134 at TOR), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+125 at KC), ST LOUIS (+119 vs NYY), TAMPA BAY (+104 at SF), SAN DIEGO (+112 at LAD), LA ANGELS (-105 at ATH)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 151-164 for -9.04 units (ROI -2.9%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. ROI on that was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so I’m looking forward to seeing what happens in the latter part of the season, 74-71, -2.53 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – TORONTO (-164 vs TEX)
3-games – ATLANTA (-102 at CLE), BALTIMORE (+118 at HOU) 

Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
In looking this week, I have gone back and found that over the course of the 2025 season so far, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games or more have gone just 139-197 for -26.69 units, an ROI of -7.9%. Although last year it was about -1% ROI, this year’s loss ROI makes it an angle I want to keep tracking, and we will do so going forward.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY METS (-102 vs SEA), SAN FRANCISCO (-127 vs TB)

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025, and after a huge month-long run of +20.29 units, it is now 191-140 for +19.86 units (ROI 6%). Hopefully, many of you remained patient with it after a slow start.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-125 at CIN), DETROIT (-113 at MIN) 

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage. 

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle. 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the 2023 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 538-479 (52.9%) for -9.0 units and an ROI of -0.9%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of almost 7% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 1017 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): SAN FRANCISCO, ATHLETICS

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 910-839 (52%) but for -206.24 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is about four full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON, SEATTLE, CLEVELAND, NY YANKEES, TAMPA BAY 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the season-and-a-half, or since the beginning of 2024, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority handle bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 128-104 (55.2%) for +13.6 units and an ROI of +5.9%!
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): TEX-TOR, MIA-BOS, CWS-KC, AZ-COL

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing 8 different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1896-1802 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -257.02 units. This represents an ROI of -7%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE (-125 at CIN), SEATTLE (-119 at NYM), NY METS (-102 vs SEA), ATHLETICS (-115 vs LAA) 

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1899-2405 (44.1%) for -211.49 units and an ROI of -4.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA (-102 at CLE), MIAMI (+148 at BOS), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+133 at KC), SAN DIEGO (+112 at LAD) 

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3847-3369 (53.3%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -515.17 units and an ROI of -7.1%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI (+103 vs MIL), TORONTO (-164 vs TEX), NY METS (-102 vs SEA), ATHLETICS (-115 vs LAA), SAN FRANCISCO (-127 vs SD) 

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 567-473 (54.5%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +27.26 units, for an ROI of 2.6%.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-149 vs BAL) 

Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 315-279 (53%) for +21.82 units and an ROI of 3.7% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (-102 vs SEA), CINCINNATI (+103 vs MIL)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks. 

Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 121-125 (-52.63 units, ROI: -21.4%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-125 at CIN)

Winning Streak Betting System #7:
Not surprisingly, when teams get to the level of having won nine games in a row or more, the lowest priced teams riding winning streaks offer the most value. In fact, teams on winning streaks on 9+ games and favored by -145 or less (or underdog) have gone 39-20 (+20.58 units, ROI: 34.9%) in trying to stretch the streak another game.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-125 at CIN)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: BALTIMORE +118 (+15)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PHILADELPHIA -144 (+48 diff), CLEVELAND -119 (+25), SEATTLE -115 (+24), LA DODGERS -136 (+21), ARIZONA -192 (+18) 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NYY-STL OVER 7.5 (+0.7), BAL-HOU OVER 8.5 (+0.6), PIT-CHC OVER 8.5 (+0.5) 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: PHI-WSH UNDER 10 (-0.5)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots. 

(901) PITTSBURGH (52-71) at (902) CHICAGO-NL (68-53)
Trend: Under the total is 30-20-1 (+8.00 units) in Pirates’ day games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PIT-CHC (o/u at 8.5)

Trend: CHC is 17-4 (+10.87 units) as a favorite versus NL opponents with starter Shota Imanaga since the start of the 2024 season
Trend: CHC is 26-7 (+15.62 units) against teams with a < 0.57% win pct with starter Shota Imanaga since the start of the 2024 season
Trends Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-233 vs PIT) 

(903) PHILADELPHIA (70-52) at (904) WASHINGTON (49-73)
Trend: Under the total is 38-20-6 (+16.00 units) in Phillies’ road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-WSH (o/u at 10) 

(905) MILWAUKEE (77-44) at (906) CINCINNATI (64-59)
Trend: MIL is 44-24 (+19.31 units) in night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-125 at CIN)

(909) SAN DIEGO (69-53) at (910) LOS ANGELES-NL (69-53)
Trend: Under the total is 28-11 (+15.90 units) when SD faces LH starters this season
Trend: Under the total is 11-3-2 (+7.55 units) when SD is road underdogs with starter Dylan Cease since the start of the 2024 season
Trend: Under the total is 31-15-2 (+14.50 units) when SD is a ML underdog this season
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): SD-LAD (o/u at 8) 

(911) TEXAS (61-62) at (912) TORONTO (72-51)
Trend: TOR is 41-20 (+15.29 units) in home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-164 vs. TEX)

(913) CHICAGO-AL (44-78) at (914) KANSAS CITY (61-61)
Trend: CWS is 18-42 (-14.21 units) in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+133 at KC) 

(915) BALTIMORE (56-66) at (916) HOUSTON (68-54)
Trend: Under the total is 39-20-3 (+17.00 units) in Orioles’ road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BAL-HOU (o/u at 8.5) 

(917) DETROIT (72-52) at (918) MINNESOTA (57-65)
Trend: DET is 24-36 (-15.34 units) on the run line in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): DETROIT (-1.5 at MIN) 

(919) LOS ANGELES-AL (59-63) at (920) ATHLETICS (55-69)
Trend: LAA is 47-39 (+18.60 units) in night games this season
Trend: Tyler Anderson is 21-13 (+12.26 units) vs AL West teams in the last six seasons
Trends Match (PLAY): LA ANGELS (-105 at ATH) 

(921) MIAMI (58-64) at (922) BOSTON (67-56)
Trend: Cal Quantrill is 25-26 (+14.62 units) as an underdog of +135 or more in the last five seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+148 at BOS)

(923) SEATTLE (68-55) at (924) NEW YORK-NL (64-58)
Trend: Over the total is 9-5 (+3.42 units) in the last 14 games when SEA is a road favorite with starter Bryan Woo
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SEA-NYM (o/u at 8.5)

(925) ATLANTA (54-68) at (926) CLEVELAND (63-58)
Trend: ATL is 25-36 (-16.80 units) on the run line in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-1.5 at CLE) 

(927) NEW YORK-AL (65-57) at (928) ST LOUIS (61-62)
Trend: Max Fried is 21-4 (+14.52 units) in the last 25 starts vs NL Central teams
Trend Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-144 at STL) 

(929) TAMPA BAY (60-63) at (930) SAN FRANCISCO (59-63)
Trend: Adrian Houser is 8-19 (-8.57 units) as a night underdog of +100 or worse in the last six seasons
Trend Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (+104 at SF)

Trend: Under the total is 52-31-2 (+17.90 units) when SF is a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TB-SF (o/u at 8)

Series #18: Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs, Fri 8/15-Sun 8/17
Trend: PITTSBURGH is 11-22 (33.3%, -7.92 units) in their last 33 games at Chicago Cubs
– The ROI on this trend is -24%
Trend Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (+187 at CHC)

Trend: Over the total is on a 22-13-1 (62.9%, +7.73 units) run in the Pirates-Cubs head-to-head series since September 2022.
– The ROI on this trend is 22.1%
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CHC-PIT (o/u at 8.5)

Series #23: Chicago White Sox at Kansas City, Fri 8/15-Sun 8/17
Trend: KANSAS CITY is on a run of 19-3 (86.4%, +15.25 units) versus the Chicago White Sox.
– The ROI on this trend is 69.3%
Trend Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-163 vs CWS)

Series #26: Milwaukee at Cincinnati, Fri 8/15-Sun 8/17
Trend: MILWAUKEE is on an extended 30-10 (75%, +18.93 units) run versus Cincinnati in head-to-head play.
– The ROI on this trend is 47.3%
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-125 at CIN)

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities. 

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next: Monday, August 18)

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