The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Saturday, September 6, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

Trend: Favorites are just 24-43 (35.8%, -36.23 units) in the last 67 games between Toronto and NY Yankees
– The ROI on this trend is -54.1%
Trend Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-136 vs TOR) 

Trend: TEX is 2-10 (-9.58 units) in the last 12 night games as a -130 favorite or less with starter Jacob deGrom
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (-119 vs HOU) 

* Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 321-285 (53%) for +22.95 units and an ROI of 3.8% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+134 vs PHI), ST LOUIS (+107 vs SF)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings. 

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating and starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 season so far, I have found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 188-122 for +45.93 units, and an ROI of +14.8%! For the full ’24 regular season, teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and an ROI of 11.1%. This is continually proving to be a good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-134 vs SEA) 

STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS

Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating of higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game have gone 58-58 for -15.56 units when not matched up against similar. This represents an ROI of -13.4% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games.
System Matches (SLIGHT FADE ALL): MINNESOTA (-126 at KC)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 153-204 for -47.82 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -13.4%. Fade these qualifiers anytime they come up, as it has become a very reliable part of this report.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (+118 at TB), KANSAS CITY (+104 vs MIN), ST LOUIS (+107 vs SF), SAN DIEGO (-198 at COL)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 314-189 for +17.90 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +3.6%. However, this angle has cooled off dramatically over the last few weeks.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-273 vs WSH), MILWAUKEE (-145 at PIT), LA DODGERS (-150 at BAL), HOUSTON (-101 at TEX)

Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 128-238 for -35.29 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.6%!
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+217 at CHC), COLORADO (+160 vs SD) 

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! For 2025, these teams have again gone negative after an unusually good start, 105-49 for -4.78 units. We have been hovering the red for about a month now, like usual.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (-273 vs WSH) 

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and a winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
 A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For ’25, these teams are off to a very strong start, 118-41 for +14.52 units, an ROI of +9.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT (-330 vs CWS), SAN DIEGO (-198 at COL)

Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 160-122, but for -115.88 units in the ’23 and ‘24 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -41.1%, very solid results. So far in ’25, these teams are still unusually positive, 77-33 for +4.09 units. September is typically a month where we see more of these plays qualifying daily due to favorite overpricing.
System Match (FADE): SAN DIEGO (-198 at COL) 

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The ’24 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we were seeking a bounce back in ’25. We gained +2.3 units last week to bring the season record to 393-422 for +39.73 units, ROI +4.9%!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): KANSAS CITY (+104 vs MIN), HOUSTON (-101 at TEX), ST LOUIS (+107 vs SF) 

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 182-185 for +3.06 units (ROI 0.8%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. ROI on that was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so I’m pleased that we have been returning to normalcy in the latter part of the season, now 88-86, -1.93 units for the year.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 3+ games – TORONTO (+112 at NYY), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+257 at DET), BALTIMORE (+123 vs LAD), SAN FRANCISCO (-131 at STL), ARIZONA (-102 vs BOS) 

Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
In looking this week, I have gone back and found that over the course of the 2025 season so far, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games or more have gone just 166-223 for -17.45 units, an ROI of -4.5%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI (+134 vs PHI), CINCINNATI (+112 vs NYM), MINNESOTA (-126 at KC), SEATTLE (+110 at ATL)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the system and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage. 

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle. 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the ‘23 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 538-479 (52.9%) for -9.0 units and an ROI of -0.9%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of almost 7% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 1017 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): NY YANKEES, TEXAS, ATLANTA, LA ANGELS

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors have been outstanding over the last 2-1/2 seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 263-79 (76.9%) for +31.6 units and an ROI of 9.2%. This is typically not the kind of wager I used to get behind, but the numbers don’t lie. It is a great rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so consider that when backing.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS, DETROIT 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 910-839 (52%) but for -206.24 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is about four full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA DODGERS, SEATTLE, BOSTON 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 316-295 (51.7%) for -114.31 units and an atrocious ROI of -18.7%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES, TEXAS

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the ‘23 season.
– Majority handle bettors in September/October games have gone just 481-398 (54.7%) for -117.29 units and an ROI of -13.3% since the start of the 2023 season.
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS THIS MONTH 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the season-and-a-half, or since the beginning of 2024, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority handle bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 128-104 (55.2%) for +13.6 units and an ROI of +5.9%!
System Match (PLAY UNDER): SD-COL

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored 9 runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1941-1837 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -251.98 units. This represents an ROI of -6.7%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-273 vs WSH), PHILADELPHIA (-164 at MIA), ATHLETICS (-103 at LAA), ARIZONA (-102 vs BOS)

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1935-2444 (44.2%) for -210.81 units and an ROI of -4.8% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA DODGERS (-150 at BAL), SEATTLE (+110 at ATL), MINNESOTA (-126 at KC), SAN DIEGO (-198 at COL) 

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3921-3427 (53.4%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -514.80 units and an ROI of -7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-273 vs WSH), DETROIT (-330 vs CWS), ARIZONA (-102 vs BOS) 

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 578-480 (54.6%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +27.28 units, for an ROI of 2.6%.
System Match (PLAY): LA ANGELS (-118 vs ATH) 

Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit 4 or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 5+ seasons, going 353-178 (66.5%) for +46.22 units and an ROI of 8.7%!
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-273 vs WSH) 

Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 321-285 (53%) for +22.95 units and an ROI of 3.8% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+134 vs PHI), ST LOUIS (+107 vs SF) 

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks. 

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 252-258 run (+19.36 units, ROI: 3.8%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA DODGERS (-150 at BAL), SAN DIEGO (-198 at COL) 

Winning Streak Betting System #2:
Strangely, teams on winning streaks of five games or more and winning fewer than 50% of their games on the season have been the better investment than winning teams as they are 73-60 (+17.54 units, ROI: 13.2%) in their last 133 tries to extend streaks.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+257 at DET) 

Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs, typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 169-138 (+8.84 units, ROI: 2.9%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+257 at DET), SAN FRANCISCO (-131 at STL) 

Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 232-151 in their last 383 tries (+36.91 units, ROI: 9.6%).
System Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-131 at STL) 

Winning Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have won their last four games but are playing on the road as large underdogs (+140 or more) have struggled, going 32-64 (-6.90 units, ROI: -7.2%) in their last 96 tries.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+257 at DET)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: WASHINGTON +217 (+47 diff), CHICAGO WHITE SOX +257 (+41), KANSAS CITY +104 (+17), CINCINNATI +112 (+15) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PHILADELPHIA -164 (+29 diff), LA DODGERS -150 (+25), MILWAUKEE -145 (+17) 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LAD-BAL OVER 7.5 (+0.6), CLE-TB OVER 8 (+0.5) 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TOR-NYY UNDER 10 (-1.0), SD-COL UNDER 12 (-0.7), BOS-AZ UNDER 9 (-0.5)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots. 

(951) WASHINGTON (56-84) at (952) CHICAGO-NL (81-60)
Trend: WSH is 14-26 (-9.30 units) vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+207 at CHC) 

(953) PHILADELPHIA (82-59) at (954) MIAMI (65-76)
Trend: MIA is 64-36 (+17.87 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+1.5 vs PHI) 

(957) MILWAUKEE (87-55) at (958) PITTSBURGH (64-78)
Trend: PIT is 10-23 (-9.14 units) vs teams with a >58% win pct with starter Mitch Keller in the last six seasons
Trend Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (+118 vs MIL) 

(965) CHICAGO-AL (54-88) at (966) DETROIT (81-61)
Trend: CWS is 80-54 (+16.31 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+1.5 at DET)

Trend: Tarik Skubal is 21-5 (+11.72 units) in his last 26 night game starts
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-330 vs CWS) 

(967) CLEVELAND (70-70) at (968) TAMPA BAY (71-70)
Trend: Under the total is 52-36-7 (+12.40 units) when TB is a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-TB (o/u at 8) 

(969) MINNESOTA (62-79) at (970) KANSAS CITY (72-69)
Trend: MIN is 46-50 (-23.15 units) as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (-126 at KC) 

(971) HOUSTON (77-65) at (972) TEXAS (73-69)
Trend: HOU is 3-8 (-6.33 units) with starter Hunter Brown as a -145 favorite or worse (including underdog) in divisional games since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-102 at TEX)

Trend: TEX is 2-10 (-9.58 units) in the last 12 night games as a -130 favorite or less with starter Jacob deGrom
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (-119 vs HOU) 

(975) LOS ANGELES-NL (78-63) at (976) BALTIMORE (65-76)
Trend: LAD is just 31-37 (-24.63 units) on the road this season
Trend: LAD is 16-4 (+10.48 units) as a smaller favorite within -115 to -165 line range with starter Yoshinobu Yamamoto since the start of 2024 season
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of LA DODGERS (-150 at BAL) 

(977) SEATTLE (73-68) at (978) ATLANTA (64-77)
Trend: Over the total is 40-31-1 (+5.90 units) in Mariners’ road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SEA-ATL (o/u at 9) 

(979) BOSTON (78-64) at (980) ARIZONA (71-71)
Trend: Lucas Giolito is 15-19 in his last 34 starts against the NL (-6.05 units)
Trend Match (FADE): BOSTON (-119 at AZ)

Series #19: Toronto at NY Yankees, Fri 9/5-Sun 9/7
Trend: Favorites are just 24-43 (35.8%, -36.23 units) in the last 67 games between Toronto and NY Yankees
– The ROI on this trend is -54.1%
Trend Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-136 vs TOR) 

Series #24: Houston at Texas, Fri 9/5-Sun 9/7
Trend: Road teams are on a 33-18 (64.7%, +23.83 units) surge in the in-state AL West rivalry between Houston and Texas.
– The ROI on this trend is 46.7%
Trend Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-101 at TEX)

Series #28: Minnesota at Kansas City, Fri 9/5-Sun 9/7
Trend: Home teams in the Kansas City-Minnesota AL Central rivalry are on a 37-12 (75.5%, +24.80 units) run in head-to-head play.
– The ROI on this trend is 50.6%
Trend Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (+104 vs MIN)

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities. 

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next: Monday, September 8)

RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR