Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Sunday, April 26, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 364-398 but for +99.42 units and an ROI of 13% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (+179 at ATL), CLEVELAND (+109 at TOR), MINNESOTA (+123 at TB), PITTSBURGH (+102 at MIL)
Trend: BAL is 5-12 (-8.51 units) in Home Divisional starts by Kyle Bradish in the last few seasons
Trend Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (-143 vs BOS)
Trend: The YANKEES are on a 14-4 (77.8%, +10.11 units) run versus Houston.
– The ROI on this trend is 56.2%
Trend Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-136 at HOU)
*CHECK OUT FIRST BULLPEN SYSTEM BELOW*
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, the success is continuing as these teams are off to a strong 58-34 start for +12.86 units and an ROI of +14%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS GAME 1 (-244 vs COL), SEATTLE (-136 at STL), SAN FRANCISCO (-131 vs MIA), CHICAGO CUBS (+104 at LAD), NY METS GAME 2 (-186 vs COL)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 14-18 for -5.32 units and an ROI of -16.6%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (+102 at MIL), TEXAS (-120 vs ATH)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same in the 2025 season. This represents an ROI of +5.4%. For 2026, these teams are off to a 54-34 start for +3.46 units and an ROI of 3.9%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-219 vs PHI), SAN DIEGO (-136 at AZ)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a rare positive start, 25-33 for +5.63 units. I don’t expect this to last long.
System Matches (FADE ALL): COLORADO GAME 1 (+197 at NYM), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-122 vs WSH), COLORADO GAME 2 (+153 at NYM)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.28 units. The 2026 record so far is 13-5 for +1.31 units, as big favorites are off to an unusually strong start overall.
System Match (FADE): NY METS GAME 1 (-244 vs COL)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and a winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. After a 133-43 finish for +25 units in the 2025 season, this angle will take a 3-year record of 385-146 for +33.01 units (ROI 6.2%) into the 2026 campaign. The 2026 teams meeting this criteria are 19-12 but for -11.30 units so far. Be cautious with this one.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-219 vs PHI)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a solid start, 54-55 for +4.74 units (4.3% ROI).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (+119 at BAL), CLEVELAND (+109 at TOR), CINCINNATI (-110 vs DET), PITTSBURGH (+102 at MIL), CHICAGO CUBS (+104 at LAD), LA ANGELS (+102 at KC)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 23-36 start for -9.76 units.
System Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (-122 vs LAA)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it comes off a phenomenal week of -11.16 units, and the overall season record is now 26-35 for -5.65 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA (+123 at TB), MILWAUKEE (-122 vs PIT), ST LOUIS (+113 vs SEA)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a three-game losing streak are 417-439 but for +31.38 units and an ROI of 3.7% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, PHILADELPHIA, MINNESOTA, WASHINGTON, MILWAUKEE
MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 364-398 but for +99.42 units and an ROI of 13% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (+179 at ATL), CLEVELAND (+109 at TOR), MINNESOTA (+123 at TB), PITTSBURGH (+102 at MIL)
MLB Series Betting System #9: Big home favorites of -180 or more closing out a divisional series have been a solid investment lately, going 160-64 for +16.29 units and an ROI of 7.3% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-219 vs PHI)
MLB Series Betting System #11: Road teams wrapping up a series after a game in which they lost and scored 4 or fewer runs have bounced back well with a 644-749 record but for +22.67 units and an ROI of 1.6% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, MIAMI, MINNESOTA, ATHLETICS, LA ANGELS, DETROIT, CHICAGO CUBS
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of 7 runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 7+ seasons, going 439-420 (51.1%) for +21.80 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 2.5%.
System Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-143 vs BOS)
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2021-1916 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -269.58 units. This represents an ROI of -6.8%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON, KANSAS CITY, CINCINNATI, SEATTLE, ST LOUIS, LA DODGERS
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2026-2586 (43.9%) for -260.98 units and an ROI of -5.7% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI, LA ANGELS, DETROIT, MIAMI
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 4098-3563 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -519.18 units and an ROI of -6.8%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TAMPA BAY, TORONTO, KANSAS CITY, ATLANTA, CINCINNATI, ST LOUIS, LA DODGERS, SAN FRANCISCO
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 6+ seasons, going 373-187 (66.6%) for +51.03 units and an ROI of 9.1%!
System Match (PLAY): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR CINCINNATI vs DET (-110 CURRENTLY)
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 335-299 (52.8%) for +21.53 units and an ROI of 3.4% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (-143 vs BOS), ST LOUIS (+113 vs SEA)
Lucky teams can’t escape bad pitching
Teams who won their last game despite their bullpen blowing a save have gone 88-133 SU (-24.16 units, ROI: -10.9%) as underdogs in the follow-up contest since May 2024.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+100 at CWS), PHILADELPHIA (+179 at ATL), PITTSBURGH (+102 at MIL)
Divisional blown saves lead to bounce-back
Teams who lost their previous game to a divisional rival from blowing a save have gone 161-86 SU (+40.70 units, ROI: 16.5%) as a pick ’em or favorite in the same-series follow-up game since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-219 vs PHI)
MLB Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.
MLB Team Strength Betting System #4:
Early season (March/April/May) road underdogs between +100 and +160 coming off a loss have gone 482-543 SU but for +76.53 units (ROI: 7.5%) since the start of the 2021 season (including 164-176 SU for +38.36 units in the last 340 divisional games).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (+109 at TOR), MIAMI (+109 at SF), MINNESOTA (+123 at TB), ATHLETICS (+100 at TEX), CHICAGO CUBS (+104 at LAD), LA ANGELS (+102 at KC)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 281-298 run (+5.27 units, ROI: 0.9%).
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-122 vs PIT)
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 245-160 in their last 405 tries (+39.65 units, ROI: 9.8%).
System Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-136 at HOU)
Winning Streak Betting System #10:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 150-147 (-57.33 units, ROI: -19.3%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-136 at HOU)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CINCINNATI -110 (+29 diff), COLORADO +197 (+29), PHILADELPHIA +179 (+22), WASHINGTON +102 (+15)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SAN DIEGO -136 (+28 diff), SAN FRANCISCO -131 (+25), LA DODGERS -126 (+17)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: WSH-CWS OVER 7.5 (+1.1), PIT-MIL OVER 7.5 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: COL-NYM GAME 1 UNDER 7.5 (-0.7), NYY-HOU UNDER 9.5 (-0.5)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(951) PHILADELPHIA (9-18) at (952) ATLANTA (19-9)
Trend: PHI is 4-12 (-7.90 units) in road Divisional games as a -110 or worse line with starter Aaron Nola in the last 6+ seasons
Trend: PHI is 13-28 (-13.43 units) as an underdog with Aaron Nola in the last 6+ seasons
Trends Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (+179 at ATL)
(959) SAN DIEGO (18-8) at (960) ARIZONA (14-12)
Trend: Over the total is 11-0 (+11.00 units) when SD is favored within -115 to -165 line range against NL teams with starter Michael King since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SD-AZ (o/u at 15)
(963) BOSTON (10-17) at (964) BALTIMORE (13-14)
Trend: BAL is 5-12 (-8.51 units) in Home Divisional starts by Kyle Bradish in the last few seasons
Trend Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (-143 vs BOS)
(967) MINNESOTA (12-15) at (968) TAMPA BAY (15-11)
Trend: Under the total is 16-9 (+5.84 units) when MIN is a plus-money underdog with starter Simeon Woods-Richardson since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIN-TB (o/u at 8.5)
(973) LOS ANGELES-AL (12-16) at (974) KANSAS CITY (10-17)
Trend: LAA is 7-15 (-8.43 units) on the ROAD in the -160 to +130 line range for starter Reid Detmers in the last few seasons
Trend Match (FADE): LA ANGELS (+102 at KC)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trend
Series #28: NY Yankees at Houston, Fri 4/24-Sun 4/26
Trend: The YANKEES are on a 14-4 (77.8%, +10.11 units) run versus Houston.
– The ROI on this trend is 56.2%
Trend Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-136 at HOU)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Matches (CONSIDER ALL): BOSTON, WASHINGTON, ST LOUIS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI, WASHINGTON, ST LOUIS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO, NY METS GAME 1, MILWAUKEE, SAN FRANCISCO, KANSAS CITY
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course, is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): SD-AZ
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next couple Tuesday, April 28)
