UFC Vegas 120 Predictions:
The UFC Meta APEX hosts this week’s Fight Night event, a fight slate that reached 11 bouts just last week with the addition of two matchups. The APEX employs the smaller 25-foot cage, and the venue holds only a few hundred fans.
Of the 11 bouts, four are competitions between athletes weighing 170 pounds and above. That’s where finish rates are highest; it’s rewarding to get a couple of these bouts on this APEX card as the UFC seems to be evolving away from matching larger men in that small octagon/venue.
There are three bouts where an athlete from the USA faces an opponent that travels into the country from abroad. Those fights will also require monitoring of the traveling athlete, as their weight cut for travel does affect the weight and preparation of athletes.
Last week, my supposed Serbian ‘hammer’ was in fact the ‘nail’ as journeyman mixed martial artist Gil Urbina knocked out local fighter Vlasto Cepo in one round. Onward we journey!
Quillan Salkilld -150 vs. Mateusz Gamrot +130
Lightweight (155 pounds) main event
I have been taught that world-class wrestling is kryptonite to world-class BJJ.
In this fight, we have a young, tall, strong Aussie black belt in BJJ taking on a short, sawed-off Polish chain wrestler in a main event that should really be compelling.
Australian Quillan Salkilld ships in for this bout after winning a Contender Series fight, then going 5-0 in UFC competition.
Salkilld has great physical advantages in this fight as he is eleven years the younger man, and he holds reach, height, and leg length dominance.
Salkilld needs to employ those physical attributes in this fight, particularly in order for him to keep the forward pressing and unrelenting wrestling of Gamrot at distance. The distance will allow Salkilld to utilize his jab, fire straight right hands behind that jab, then follow that combination up with a kick which must be executed from a safe distance.
While Salkilld is a decorated BJJ artist, he does not wish to foray on the floor with this vice grip of a wrestling talent in Gamrot. With that mentioned, Salkilld has earned a 7.25 takedown per 15 minutes of fight time stat, which is impressive even considering the lack of elite competition he has competed against.
While his resume shows that he has finished four of his five adversaries, a closer look shows that none of those opponents were/are ranked in the top fifteen of the division, nor were they elite with unrelenting forward pressing wrestling.
In Mateusz Gamrot, we get the prototypical unrelenting power wrestler. Gamrot’s UFC resume is far more complete than Salkilld’s. He has faced a far superior set of elite UFC lightweight competition; after all, he is 35.
Gamrot will need to ensure that he avoids Salkilld’s power early in this fight and upon his entry to clasp and then take down the Aussie. He will need to protect his neck in those takedown attempts and not run into a choke. When he is able to engage, and when he drags this long, lanky finisher to the ground (a key for him in this fight), the fight for Gamrot will commence while the desperation to get off his back will compel the Aussie.
Gamrot’s seen and competed against short, tall, thin, and rotund strikers/wrestlers/grapplers prior, while Salkilld’s first run-in with an elite power wrestler of any body type will come Saturday.
This fight sets up to be competitive early, but eventually the unrelenting pressure of Gamrot could begin to wear the long, tall Aussie down and eventually make him susceptible to Gamrot’s control, ground and pound and damage.
After all, this is a substantial step up in class for Salkilld. It is a five-round fight, a first for Salkilld but not the first for Gamrot.
It’s my take that this will be a very competitive fight. Salkilld will need to pulverize Gamrot with elbows, fists and knees on his way to engage. Gamrot must fight this man from an inside-the-pocket position. Gamrot must be glue and affix himself to Salkilld in order to mute his offense and put him on the defense. If Gamrot is forced to remain on the outside in this battle, it will be a disaster to his chances of getting his arm raised.
Great, competitive fight in a small cage with the edge to the wrestler.
Total in this fight: There are books with 3.5 Rds. Over -125. There are also books with 4.5 Rds Under -135.
Strong Lean to Over 3.5
Alexia Thainara -240 vs. Amanda Lemos +205
Women’s strawweight (115 pounds)
Tenth-ranked Alexia Thainara is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu practitioner who trains with the Ribas family. She is a developing fighter who is 3-0 in UFC competition, facing only a nominally effective set of competition entering this fight.
Thainara holds a two-inch reach advantage in this fight, which means little as she is a grappler as opposed to an effective striker. She is also a whopping 11 years younger.
At the turn of the year, I pledged to quit chasing fighters six years (+/-) older than their opponent, and it has paid dividends. However, in this fight, I must make an exception.
Lemos, now 39, has competed against the absolute elite of the strawweight division. She’s realized a 9-6 record over nine years of UFC competition.
Lemos is unlike most Brazilian fighters in that her grappling is underdeveloped while her striking aptitude, power, volume, and strike defense are elite. Lemos takes this fight knowing that with a loss she freefalls down the rankings and more than likely out of the top 20 of the division, which spells doom for a 39-year-old.
So Thainara enters the most important fight of her life while Lemos does also!
Lemos’ experience and the level of competition faced force me to believe that she’ll manage the takedown attempts put on her by Thainara. Then, when this fight remains standing, Lemos will be in a far superior position.
I expect Lemos to fight like a mother pit bull backed into a corner protecting her litter in this fight. She is not ready to ride off into the sunset. I believe she puts forth a highly effective game plan on her way to a decision victory.
UFC Vegas 120 Best Bet: Amanda Lemos +205
Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds Over -210
Friday, the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops across all podcast platforms. Catch all my releases for this fight card there, or go to GambLou.com to access the podcast. Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights!
SPONSORED
TONY GEORGE from Docs Sports is at it again in MLB. This is nothing new for the 34-year veteran capper. He was #1 at Docs in 2024 in MLB with over +$13,600 in profits. Tony was up 71 units and +$5140 at the All-Star Break. In the last 14 days, Tony is +2440 (See here)
Another big plus is Tony is 14-5 with his Top Picks in MLB this year. Be sure to check out Tony’s action at Docs Sports daily.
