WNBA Picks
We got the brooms out on Friday night, with a 2-0 sweep thanks to the Golden State Valkyries covering against the Dallas Wings and the Washington Mystics winning again as underdogs to cover the +5.5 for us. Onto Saturday, where we’ve got another three-game slate, featuring the Minnesota Lynx hosting the Las Vegas Aces, the Chicago Sky hosting the Indiana Fever, and the Portland Fire hosting the Seattle Storm. Here are the TSI projections for Saturday.
Minnesota Lynx (-5.5) vs Las Vegas Aces, O/U 183.5
Minnesota got stunned the other night by the LA Sparks, losing by seven in a game that Coach Cheryl Reeve said they “didn’t play any (expletive) defense!” Despite the loss, Minnesota is still playing a point above their season average over the last three games, while Las Vegas has won four out of five and is playing 4.5 points above their season average over the last three games. The Aces won the only matchup this season, 100-97 in Las Vegas in June, but Minnesota has won the last two matchups (both 2025) in Minnesota by an average of 93-70. TSI projects Lynx -6.5 with a total of 178, and I think this spot is perfect for Minnesota to bounce back and get a solid win at home. I’m staying off the Under because the last four times these teams played, at least one team scored 97 or more, so that doesn’t make me feel great about an Under.
Bet: Lynx -5.5 or better
Chicago Sky (+6) vs Indiana Fever, O/U 191.5
Chicago has been playing 2.5 points above their season average over the last three games, winning three of four, but blossoming star Sydney Taylor will miss this game due to a groin injury. Indiana has been about three points worse than its average over the last three, losing back-to-back games to Vegas and Minnesota. The Fever have dominated this matchup though, winning the last five, including the only one this year, by an average of 95-77. TSI projects Indiana -7 with a total of 188.5. I think without Taylor, it’s going to be much harder for Chicago to score, and Indiana averages seven fewer points per game on the road, so I’m going to play the Under here.
Bet: Under 191.5 (Play to 190.5)
Portland Fire (-1.5) vs Seattle Storm, O/U 181.5
Portland has been 2.5 points better than its season average over the last three games, but is just 1-5 overall in its last six. Seattle has been 1.5 points worse than their average and has lost ten straight games. Portland won both prior meetings by an average of 86-81. TSI projects Portland -1.5 with a total of 184. I’m going to pass on this game because I don’t trust Seattle’s offense on the road enough to contribute to this total.
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